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Revisiting State Failure: Developing a Causal Model of State Failure Based Upon Theoretical Insight

2008; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 10; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/13698240802062689

1743-968X

Tiffiany Howard,

Natural Resources and Economic Development

Developing a theoretically driven causal model of state failure is necessary if scholars are committed to improving the predictive power and forecasting ability of early warning models of state failure. Building upon the work of the State Failure Project1 1. Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc A. Levy, Monty G. Marshall, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Colin H. Kahl, Pamela T. Surko, John C. Ulfelder, Jr., and Alan N. Unger, in consultation with Matthew Christenson, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Daniel C. Esty, and Thomas M. Parris, State Failure Task Force: Phase III Findings (McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation 30 Sept. 2000). and earlier statistical models of state failure,2 2. G. King and L. Zeng, ‘Improving Forecasts of State Failure,’ World Politics 53 (2001) pp.623–58; Tiffiany Howard, ‘State Pressures and the Forced Migrant: Evaluating Global State Failure in an Effort to Ameliorate the Consequences of Forced Migration in the Developing World,’ Doctoral Dissertation (Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan 2006). this study develops a causal model of state failure that is based upon a theoretical foundation that satisfies the parsimonious condition that policy forecasting models typically rely upon. The statistical model of state failure developed for this analysis extends the work of previous models by developing an alternative definition and measurement of state failure and introduces factors that are appropriate for making predictions and establishing causation.