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On the Potential use of Index Paths for Avalanche Assessment

1983; Cambridge University Press; Volume: 29; Issue: 101 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1017/s0022143000005232

1727-5652

Arthur Judson,

Fire effects on ecosystems

Abstract The possible use of index paths to assess avalanche potential in large avalanche samples was evaluated with probability theory on 56 uncontrolled avalanche paths in Colorado. Results showed the technique yields limited information of little diagnostic value because of low conditional probabilities of joint occurrence and high yearly variance. 90% of pairs tested had probabilities ≦0.20 for a six-year period. Implications for researchers and field personnel are discussed.