Artigo Revisado por pares

The Influence of ‘Time’ on Counter‐Insurgency

2008; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 8; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/14702430701812027

ISSN

1743-9698

Autores

Christophe Pasco,

Tópico(s)

Intelligence, Security, War Strategy

Resumo

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1 French president’s leitmotiv from 1981 to 1995. Translation: time needs time. 2 Annie Jourdan, La révolution, une exception française? (Paris : Flammarion 2004). 3 Limitation of this study. 4 Monarchy and clergy used to control and rule the society: the clergy imposed the Christian calendar in the European associated world, and ruled peoples’ spiritual and material lives via the churches’ clocks. Edward T. Hall, The Dance of Life: Another Dimension of Time (New York: Anchor Books 1989). 5 ‘We know that the sine qua non of victory in modern warfare is the unconditional support of the population.’ Roger Trinquier, Modern Warfare: A French View of Counterinsurgency [1961] (London: Praeger Security International 2006). 6 This study will stress the necessity of understanding such aspects; it will not give a practical solution to solve time issues in COIN operations. 7 Trinquier (note 5) p.5. 8 Lines of Operation: in a campaign, a line linking decisive points in time and space on the path to the centre of gravity. Ministry of Defence, Joint Warfare Publication, British Defence Doctrine (Shrivenham, UK: DSDC(L) 2001). 9 Centre of Gravity: characteristic, capability or locality from which a nation, a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight, British Defence Doctrine (note 8). 10 The insurgent wants to threaten, destabilise and terrorise the population to impose its rules, whereas the counter‐insurgent wants to reassure, gain confidence and support from the populace. The tactical approaches will for the main part rely on the human ability to understand, inform, and influence the population, which is not immediate. 11 Carl von Clausewitz, On War [1832] (London: Everyman’s Library 1993). 12 British Defence Doctrine (note 8) p.3‐3. 13 Alfred T. Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1805 [1890] abridged ed. (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice‐Hall 1980). 14 Decisive point: a point from which a hostile or friendly centre of gravity can be threatened. This point may exist in Time or Space. British Defence Doctrine (note 8) p.3‐3. 15 Anthony J. Joes, Resisting Rebellion: the History and Politics of Counterinsurgency (Lexington: UP of Kentucky 2004). 16 Trinquier (note 5) p.5. 17 Comprehensive approach definition developed in British Defence Doctrine (note 8) p.3‐7. 18 Huge impact of the high attrition of the 20–30 year‐old population; adults who would normally procreate and set the foundation for the subsequent generations. 〈http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boat_people/〉. 19 A duel can be represented as an instantaneous picture, with two identified enemies fighting in a defined space and time frame. See Clausewitz (note 11) p.88. 20 Clausewitz (note 11) Book 6, p.583. 21 Operational pause: a pause in a military campaign to regenerate forces, reorganise before another military phase. Army Doctrine Publication Land Operations AC 71819 (Shrivenham, UK: DSDC(L) 2005). 22 Mao Tse‐tung, Guerrilla Warfare (London: Cassell 1962) p.34. 23 Ibid. p.26. 24 David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice [1964] (London: Praeger Security International 2006) pp.35–9. 25 Ibid. 26 Ibid. p.36. 27 COIN doctrines – essentially developed by the British and the French from their post‐colonial experience – could in theory be divided into two types of approaches, the direct and the indirect one. The direct option is synonymous of a straightforward high‐attrition approach: it was the absolute repression used by the Germans in response to guerrilla (national resistance) attacks during World War II. It is still used in Chechnya by the Russians. Nevertheless, such absolute repression is not appropriate for liberal democracies which prefer a smoother, more legitimate and acceptable solution, so called the indirect approach in order to ‘separate the fish from the water’, considering that insurgents are like fish swimming in the water of the people. ( Gen.Peter Schoomaker foreword to [Lt. Col.] John A. Nagl, Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam (Univ. of Chicago Press 2005). 28 Clausewitz (note 11) p. 93. 29 After the success in the Battle of Algiers in 1957, French troops redeployed all over the territory in order to pursue the insurgents, leaving the capital too early, which proved a tactical and operational error. 30 Trinquier (note 5) p.78. 31 Plato, Greek philosopher, 427–347 BC 〈http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/∼history/Mathematicians/Plato.html〉. 32 Hall (note 4) p.9. 33 Ibid. p.3. 34 Ibid. p.92. 35 Ibid. p.13. 36 Linear or cyclic time definition, ibid. pp. 143–4. 37 This particular tribe will be studied later. 38 Trinquier (note 5) p.53. 39 Clausewitz (note 11). 40 D. Bennet, ‘The Declining Advantages of Democracy – a Combined Model of War Outcomes and Duration’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 ( June 1998) p.344. 41 T. Garden, ‘Politicians want a short war. Not so fast, say military planners’, The Guardian, 4 March 2003 p.5. 42 Bennet (note 40) p.349. 43 Gil Merom, How Democracies Lose Small Wars (Cambridge: CUP 2003) p.75. 44 Popular democracies are less sensitive to time in the conduct of COIN operations as the Chechen example proves. 45 Maurice Isserman, The Vietnam War (Oxford: Facts on File 1992). 46 Merom (note 43) p.107. 47 Galula (note 24) p.31. 48 Col. S. V. Zas, ‘Strategic Force Deployment – the Time Factor’, Military Thought 14 ( 1 July 2005). 49 Ministry of Defence, Army Doctrine Publication: Land Operations (Shrivenham, UK: DSDC(L) 2005) p.viii. 50 General Vo Nguyen Giap, The Military Art of People’s War: Selected Writings (New York: Monthly Review Press 1970) p. 265. 51 Tempo definition: Rhythm or rate of activity of operations relative to the enemy, Ministry of Defence (note 49) p.44. 52 Napoleon wrote to his brother Joseph on 20 March 1806. See Henry Lachouque, Napoleon’s Battles: A History of his Campaigns, trans. Roy Monk‐com (New York: E.P. Dutton 1967) p.401. 53 Mao the Long March, 〈http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_march/〉. 54 ‘The readiness crisis of the US Air Force: a review and diagnosis’, US Defense Posture (April 1999) p.5. 55 R. Bateman, ‘Avoiding information overload’, Military Review (July/Aug. 1998) pp.53–4. 56 Trinquier (note 5) p.10. 57 Bateman (note 5) p.55. JFAAC: Joint Force Air Coordination Centre / OODA: Observe, Orientate, Decide, Act. 58 J. Antal, ‘It’s not the speed of the computer that counts!’ Armor (May/ June 1998) p.11. 59 Ibid. pp.13–14. Antal claims that whatever the high technology of the decision process, the main point is to accept that decision may be made at troop level, prior to action, without referring to the high command. 60 Ibid. p.16. 61 And the counter‐insurgent will have to support such plans, if he wants to gain access and support the population. 62 John R. Roos, ‘Peacekeeping’s high personnel tempo eroding readiness on several fronts’, Armed Forces Journal (March 1998) p.18. 63 Syed Junaaid Ahsan, ‘Pakistan and Afghanistan, apprehensions and opportunities’, Defence Journal 52 (Sept.–Oct. 2003) p. 19. 64 The second and traditional phase which aim is to gain the control of the population through terror is here not really distinct from the other ones 65 US National Security Archive (NSA) analysis, George Washington Univ., at 〈www.gwu.edu/∼nsarchiv/〉. 66 Ibid. 67 Abdelmalek Droukdal, former Taliban Afghan combatant, is now leading the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (or GSPC from the French name) terrorist organisation in Algeria. See Le Point, No. 1804, 12 April 2007, p.55. 68 Ibid. p.57. 69 NSA (note 65) report. 70 This global counter‐insurgent vision has been reflected in the Global War On Terror (GWOT) concept. 71 The objective for Afghanistan is ‘A stable and secure Afghanistan restored to its rightful place in the community of nations and enjoying mature relationships with its neighbours; with a self‐sustaining economy, strong institutions and a broad‐based, multi‐ethnic regime committed to the eradication of terrorism and eliminating of opium production; reducing poverty, respecting human rights, especially those of women and minority groups; and honouring Afghanistan’s other international obligations’. NATO and UK objectives in Afghanistan / House of Commons Defence Committee, The UK deployment in Afghanistan, HC 558, 2005–06 (London: HMSO, 2006). 72 Pashtun represent more than 40 per cent of the population and are located in the most instable areas. See Carol Mann, ‘Les enjeux des camps de refugiés Afghans au pakistan’, p.5. Email is cmann@femaid.org. 73 Sun Tzu, The Art of War, translated by S.B. Griffiths (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1963) p. 84. 74 Mann (note 72). 75 Ibid. pp.7–14. 76 E.g. Honour killings called ‘karo‐kari’ practised every year in Pashtunistan: such murders are committed to avenge a tribe without any consideration of morality or legal judgment. 77 O. Nasiri, ‘Au coeur du Djihad’ critics and analysis in Le Point magazine, no. 1783, 16 Nov. 2006, p.62. 78 Ibid. 79 No fewer than 37 nations involved, 10 not in NATO but under NATO command. 80 As concerns French involvement in Afghanistan, it has fluctuated from Special Forces involvement alongside US implementing OEF objectives to less kinetic missions, such as stabilisation and training tasks. 81 Spanish withdrawal from Iraq after the 2004 Madrid bombings and the national elections. 82 〈www.unodc.org/pdf/research/AFG05%20_full_web_2006.pdf〉 p.27. 83 The Associated Press, ‘Afghanistan’s opium trade going strong’, Tucson Citizen, 27 April 2005. 84 Jean‐Jacques Rousseau, French writer and political theorist of the Enlightenment, Rousseau’s work inspired the leaders of the French Revolution and the romantic generation. Notion extracted from The Social Contract of 1762, 〈www.utm.edu/research/iep/r/rousseau.htm〉. 85 The young want to get older quickly, pensioners want to remain young. 86 Eric Deschavanne, Philosophie des âges de la vie (Paris: Grasset 2007). 87 Bentley and Breitling common advertising, May 2007.

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