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Beijing's dilemma with Taiwan: war or peace?

2005; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 18; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/09512740500162980

1470-1332

Quansheng Zhao,

Hong Kong and Taiwan Politics

Abstract The issue of Taiwan and relations across the Taiwan Strait is not only of fundamental interest to China, but also crucial to peace and stability in the Asian Pacific, thereby also making it of key concern to major players such as the United States and Japan. Beijing has faced enormous challenges over how to solve its dilemma. I would like to achieve reunification with Taiwan through a peaceful path, but perceive that it must be prepared for a war scenario if Taiwan insists on breaking from the mainland for its independence. The dilemma facing Beijing in terms of war or peace with Taiwan has become more acute since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) moved to power in 2000. This article analyses Beijing's dilemma over the above policy choices by examining five stages of Beijing's assessment toward regime change in Taiwan from late 1999 to early 2005. It also illuminates the potential impact on major power relations in East Asia. Keywords: ChinaTaiwanwarpeaceinternationalrelationsUnited StatesJapan. Notes 1 ‘Military exercises in the Taiwan Strait’, Far Eastern Economic Review, July 29, 2004, p. 26. Also see Yu Bin, ‘All still quiet across the Taiwan Strait, but for how long?', PacNet, No. 33, July 22, 2004. 2 ‘Seven carrier strike groups underway for exercise “Summer Pulse 04”', Special Release from the Department of Defense, June 3, 2004; available at http://www.cffc.navy.mil/gw-summerpulse0603.htm. Also see Shijie Ribao [World Journal], July 22, 2004, pp. A1 and A3. 3 World Journal, July 16, 2004, p. A1. 4 See Steve Chan (2003), ‘Extended deterrence in the Taiwan Strait,’World Affairs 166 (2): 109–25. 5 Susan Lawrence and Jason Dean, ‘A new threat’, Far Eastern Economic Review, December 18, 2003, pp. 16–18. 6 After Bush's criticism, Chen Shui-bian revised the questions for his proposed referendum. The new version asks whether Taiwan should buy more advanced weapons if China refuses to withdraw its missiles, and whether the island should try to open talks with Beijing. Beijing rebuked both proposals as provocative. See Philip P. Pan, ‘China rebukes Taiwan's leader on new plans for referendum, The Washington Post, January 20, 2003, p. A13. 7 Philip P. Pan, ‘China thanks Bush for Taiwan stance,’The Washington Post, December 22, 2003, p. A22. 8 Shijie Ribao [World Journal], January 1, 2004, p. A4. 9 Andrew Peterson (2004). ‘Dangerous games across the Taiwan Strait,” The Washington Quarterly 27(2) 23–41. 10 See Quansheng Zhao (2003) ‘Regime change and the PRC’s Taiwan policy in the DPP era,’East Asia: An International Quarterly 20(30): 61–85. 11 In the Taiwan White Paper, the PRC government states: [I]f a grave turn of events occurs leading to the separation of Taiwan from China in any name, or if Taiwan is invaded and occupied by foreign countries, or if the Taiwan authorities refuse, sine die, the peaceful settlement of cross Straits reunification through negotiations, then the Chinese government will only be forced to adopt all drastic measures possible, including the use of force, to safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and fulfill the great cause of reunification. See ‘The one-China principle and the Taiwan issue', Renmin Ribao[People's Daily], February 22, 2000, p. 1. The English version was reprinted in Issues & Studies 36(1) (January/February 2000): 161–81. Previously, the conditions for China's intervention were the declaration of Taiwan independence or foreign power occupation. 12 Julian Baum with Dan Biers, ‘When a Giant Falls’, Far Eastern Economic Review, April 6, 2000, p. 18. 13 ‘Political platform of the Democratic Progressive Party’; available at http://203.73.100.104/platform/a.htm. 14 See, for example, the 1999 Resolution on the Future of Taiwan passed at the Second Plenary Meeting of the Eighth DPP Congress. 15 Shelley Rigger (1999) Politics in Taiwan: Voting for Democracy, New York: Routledge, p. 2. 16 Linda Chao and Ramon H. Myers (2000) The Divided China Problem: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution, Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Essays in Public Policy No. 101, p. 3. 17 ‘Regional Briefing’, Far Eastern Economic Review, December 13, 2001, p. 12. 18 For example, see Shelley Rigger (2000) ‘Taiwan rides the democratic dragon’, The Washington Quarterly 23(2) 107–18; Gwynne Dyer, ‘Chinese Democracy’, Washington Times, March 21, 2000; ‘Taiwan steps forward’, The Washington Post, March 19, 2000, p. B6. 19 Wen Wei Po (Hong Kong), December 27, 1994, p. 1. 20 John Pomfret, ‘Taiwan has an outbreak of Shanghai fever’, The Washington Post, April 28, 2001, p. A14. 21 Information available at http://www.mof.gov.tw/statistic/trade/2301.htm. 22 ITC International Trade Statistics, 2003, based on COMTRADE data of UNSD; available at http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/welcome.htm. 23 ‘Direct China – Taiwan flights start', BBC News, January 29, 2005; available at http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk. 24 Dexter Roberts and Bruce Einhorn with Alysha Webb, ‘Taiwan & China: how can Taipei control its destiny as the two economies integrate?', Business Week, June 11, 2001, p. 58. 25 Quoted from Szu-yin Ho and Tse-Kang Leng, ‘Accounting for Taiwan's economic policy toward China', paper presented at the conference, ‘The United States, China, and Taiwan in a Changing World”, University of Denver, May 2–3, 2003, pp. 7–9. 26 Maureen Pao, ‘President under siege’, Far Eastern Economic Review, March 29, 2001, pp. 22–3. 27 Clay Chandler, ‘Taiwan looks to boost mainland trade’, The Washington Post, August 28, 2001, p. E01. 28 Jason Dean, ‘Collateral Damage’, Far Eastern Economic Review, July 29, 2004, p. 32. 29 For a detailed analysis of Lee Teng-hui's ‘go slow, be patient’policy, see Tun-jen Cheng, ‘Limits of statecraft: Taiwan's political economy under Lee Teng-hui', (Paper presented at the Conference on ‘Taiwan under Lee Teng-hui (1988-2000): An Era of Democratization in Retrospect and Prospect', September 14–15, 2001, at Wake Forest University, North Carolina, p. 24. 30 Maureen Pao, ‘The mainland allure’, Far Eastern Economic Review, October 4, 2001, p. 46. 31 Maureen Pao, ‘Tied to China dragon’, Far Eastern Economic Review, September 6, 2001, p. 29. 32 David Murphy and Maureen Pao, ‘A place to call home’, Far Eastern Economic Review, July 5, 2001, p. 56. 33 This advisory panel included businesspeople, scholars, lawmakers, officials and labor representatives. See Clay Chandler, ‘China rejects Taiwan call on trade’, The Washington Post, August 30, 2001, p E01, and Chandler, ‘Taiwan looks to boost mainland trade’, p. E01. 34 Reuters, ‘Taiwan ends ban on direct investment in China’, International Herald Tribune, August 1, 2002, p. 13. 35 Philip P. Pan, ‘Political shift on Taiwan hurts China's unification push', The Washington Post, June 19, 2001, p. A.14. 36 Renmin Ribao [People's Daily], December 26, 2003, p. 1. 37 For comprehensive analysis on the rising nationalism in China and its impact on Chinese foreign policy, see Suisheg Zhao, [2004] A Nation-State by Construction: Dynamics of Modern Chinese Nationalism, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press; and Peter Hays Gries (2004) China's New Nationalism: Pride, Politics, and Diplomacy, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. 38 In this speech, Chen made a clear statement: … [that] as long as the CCP regime has no intention to use military force against Taiwan, I pledge that during my term in office, I will not declare independence, I will not change the national title, I will not push forth the inclusion of the so-called ‘state-to-state” description in the Constitution, and I will not promote a referendum to change the status quo in regard to the question of independence or unification. See Chen Shui-bian ‘Taiwan stands up: toward the dawn of a rising era’Inaugural speech, May 20, 2000, reprinted in Taiwan International Review 6(1), (January–August 2000), p. 19. 39 For example, see ‘Regional Briefing’, Far Eastern Economic Review, January 18, 2001, p. 14. 40 Renmin Ribao [People's Daily], January 25, 2002, p. 1. 41 ‘China assails call for a Taiwan vote’, International Herald Tribune, August 5, 2002, pp. 1 and 5. 42 ‘Tai dangju tuixing Taidu, zhineng poshi dalu dongwu’[The Taiwan independence pursued by the Taiwan authority will only force the mainland to use military force], Wen Wei Po, August 4, 2002, p. 1. 43 David Rudnick (2004) ‘Business before politics’, The World Today, 60(2) 22–3. 44 ‘Beijing warns Taiwan prior to inauguration’, Far Eastern Economic Review, May 27, 2004, p. 26. 45 Renmin Ribao [People's Daily], July 10, 2004, p. 1. 46 Joseph Kahn, ‘In US–China talks, a sharp and enduring focus on Taiwan', The New York Times, July 9, 2004. 47 Qiaobao [The China Press], July 15, 2004, p. A2. 48 Barry Wain, ‘A David-and-Goliath tussle', Far Eastern Economic Review, August 5, 2004, pp. 20–1. 49 ‘Direct China–Taiwan flights start', BBC News, accessed at http://newsvote. bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/l/hi/world/asia-pacific/ (February 23, 2005). 50 ‘Military expert: The anti-secession law is warning legislation” People's Daily Online, accessed at http://english.people.com.cn/ (February 23, 2005). 51 This impression is based primarily on this author's participation in a number of international conferences held in the PRC in 2002–04 including: International Symposium ‘Sino-US Relations in Retrospect and in Prospect”, February 21–23, 2002, Shanghai; International Conference ‘US–China Relations', March 10–12, 2002, Beijing; International Conference ‘The Making of America's China Policy', March 10–11, 2003, Beijing; and International Conference ‘Security and Community-Building Issues in East Asia', March 8–9, 2004, Beijing. During these occasions, the author also had opportunities to discuss the issue of Taiwan with high-ranking government officials. Many arguments below are drawn from these visits. In this article, names of these officials and scholars will be kept confidential. My knowledge on official lines on both sides of the Taiwan Strait has also been strengthened by my experience as an observer of presidential elections in Taiwan. In that capacity, I visited Taiwan in March 2000, invited by the mainland Affairs Council, and, in March 2004, invited by the Foreign Affairs Ministry as a member of the Delegation of American Scholars and Experts. 52 ‘China briefing’, Far Eastern Economic Review, March 7, 2002, p. 21. 53 Reuters, ‘China seen as eager for Taiwan’, International Herald Tribune, July 24, 2002, p. 4. 54 ‘Chen chases constitutional change’, Far Eastern Economic Review, January 15, 2004, p. 10. 55 See Chien-min Chao, ‘National security vs. economic interests”, Paper presented at the conference, ‘The United States, China, and Taiwan in a Changing World”, University of Denver, May 2–3, 2003, p. 2 56 Shijie Ribao [World Journal], December 30, 2003, p. A3. 57 For an excellent historical account of US policy toward Taiwan, see Richard C. Bush (2004) At Cross Purposes: US–Taiwan Relations since 1942, Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe. 58 See Alan Romberg (2003) Rein In at the Brink of the Precipice: American Policy Toward Taiwan and US–PRC Relations, Washington, DC: Henry L. Stimson Center. 59 Robert G. Kaiser and Steven Mufson, “‘Blue team” draws a hard line on Beijing: action on Hill reflects informal group's clout', The Washington Post, February 22, 2000, p. A1; Thomas Legislative Information webpage, available at http://thomas.loc.gov/cgibin/bdquery/z?d106:h.r.01838. 60 ‘China briefing’, Far Eastern Economic Review, February 28, 2002, p. 26. 61 ‘China briefing’, Far Eastern Economic Review, March 21, 2002, p. 28. 62 For a detailed historical account of China's use of military forces, see Andrew Scobell (2003) China's Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 63 Murray Hiebert and Susan V. Lawrence, ‘China talks on Korea’, Far Eastern Economic Review, May 1, 2003, pp. 18–19. 64 Deputy Minister of China's Taiwan Affair Officer Wang Zaixi made a similar statement on July 28, 2004; see Shijie Ribao [World Journal], July 29, 2004, p. A8. 65 Elizabeth Economy (2004) ‘Don't break the engagement', Foreign Affairs 83(3): 96–109. 66 See Robert S. Ross (2002) ‘Navigating the Taiwan Strait’, International Security 27(2): 48–85. 67 James F. Hoge (2004) ‘A global power shift in the making’, Foreign Affairs 83(4): 2. 68 Chalmers Johnson, ‘Into a Storm’, Los Angeles Times, July 17, 2004. 69 Michael D. Swaine (2004) ‘Trouble in Taiwan’, Foreign Affairs 83(2): 39–49. 70 See the report from Beth R. Alexander, ‘US “in the line of fire” in China–Taiwan war', United Press International, July 19, 2004. For a Chinese view on the US policy of ‘strategic ambiguity,’see Pan Zhongqi (2003) ‘US Taiwan policy of strategic ambiguity’, Journal of Contemporary China, 12(35): 387–407. 71 See Colin L. Powell, ‘Interview with Mike Chinoy of CNN International TV’ and ‘Interview with Anthony Yuen of Phoenix TV’, October 25, 2004; Available at http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/37366pf.htm. 72 Trevor Corson, ‘Strait-jacket', The Atlantic Monthly, December 2004, pp. 54–8. 73 Paper presented by Robert Sutter, ‘Recent convergence in China–U.S. views – Rethinking US policy options', international conference on US Taiwan Policy and the Dynamics of the Taipei–Beijing–Washington Triangle, January 28, 2005, American University, Washington, DC. 74 Edward Cody, ‘China Protests US–Japan accord', The Washington Post, February 21, 2005, p. A24. Also see Shijie Ribao [World Journal], February 19, 2005, p. 1. 75 Qiao Bao [China Press], ‘Anti-submarine alliance among US, Japan, and Taiwan triangle against PLA', December 3, 2004, p. B4. 76 Shijie Ribao [World Journal], February 23, 2005, p. 1. 77 For an analysis on South Korea's dilemma over China, see Jae Ho Chung (2001) ‘South Korea between eagle and dragon: perceptual ambivalence and strategic dilemma (2001) Asian Survey 41(5): 777–96. 78 For example, the talks between Wang Daohan and Koo Chen-fu in April 1993 in Singapore were widely hailed as ‘the first formal meeting” across the Taiwan Strait since the end of the civil war in 1949. 79 Kenneth Lieberthal, among others, made this proposal several years ago. For his latest analysis, see Kenneth Lieberthal (2005) ‘Preventing a war over Taiwan’, Foreign Affairs, 84(2): 53–63. Additional informationNotes on contributorsQuansheng Zhao Quansheng Zhao (PhD, Berkeley) is Professor and Division Director of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University in Washington, DC. He is also Associate-in-Research at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University. Professor Zhao is author of Interpreting Chinese Foreign Policy (Oxford University Press, winner of ‘Best Academic Publication’, by the Ministry of Culture in the Republic of Korea) and Japanese Policymaking (Oxford University Press/Praeger, selected as ‘Outstanding Academic Book’ by Choice), editor of Future Trends in East Asian International Relations (Frank Cass), and co-editor of Politics of Divided Nations: China, Korea, Germany, and Vietnam (University of Maryland Law School). His books have been translated into Chinese, Japanese and Korean.