Metastatic Carcinoma of the Prostate: Identifying Prognostic Groups Using Recursive Partitioning
2003; Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; Volume: 169; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1016/s0022-5347(05)64059-1
ISSN1527-3792
AutoresTracy R. Glass, Catherine M. Tangen, E. David Crawford, Ian M. Thompson,
Tópico(s)Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
ResumoNo AccessJournal of UrologyCLINICAL UROLOGY: Original Articles1 Jan 2003Metastatic Carcinoma of the Prostate: Identifying Prognostic Groups Using Recursive Partitioning TRACY R. GLASS, CATHERINE M. TANGEN, E. DAVID CRAWFORD, and IAN THOMPSON TRACY R. GLASSTRACY R. GLASS More articles by this author , CATHERINE M. TANGENCATHERINE M. TANGEN More articles by this author , E. DAVID CRAWFORDE. DAVID CRAWFORD More articles by this author , and IAN THOMPSONIAN THOMPSON Financial interest and/or other relationship with Astra Zeneca, TAP Pharmaceuticals and Mission. More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5347(05)64059-1AboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract Purpose: While in patients with metastatic prostate cancer median survival is approximately 30 months when treated with hormonal therapy, there is substantial interpatient variation. To explain better the outcome in patients with advanced disease we developed a set of prognostic groups within a large-scale clinical trial. Materials and Methods: Southwest Oncology Group Study 8894 was a randomized prospective clinical trial that compared orchiectomy and flutamide to orchiectomy and placebo. Using the technique of recursive partitioning we analyzed 5-year survival outcomes using a substantial number of patient, treatment and disease related variables to develop a set of prognostic groups with significant differences in survival. Results: Of 1,286 eligible patients 1,076 had sufficient data for analysis. The patient data set was split to allow prognostic group development in the first half of patients, followed by validation in the second half of patients accrued to the study. After pruning the regression tree 4 factors had a major impact on outcome, namely appendicular versus axial disease, performance status 0 versus 1 to 3, prostate specific antigen less than 65 versus 65 ng./ml. or greater and Gleason score less than 8 versus 8 or greater. Using these criteria 3 prognostic groups were developed, including a good (hazards ratio 1), intermediate (hazards ratio 1.8) and poor (hazards ratio 2.8) group. Five-year survival estimates in the 3 groups were 42%, 21% and 9%, respectively. Using the validation test set similar 5-year survival estimates for the 3 groups of 46%, 25% and 14%, respectively. Conclusions: These data from a large-scale randomized clinical trial provide a validated set of easily applied prognostic groups. We hope that our results may be validated by other investigators and we would encourage the future reporting of outcomes in patients with advanced prostate cancer using these prognostic groupings. 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