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Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina

2012; Escuela de Ciencias del Mar, Facultad de Recursos Naturales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso; Volume: 40; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.3856/vol40-issue4-fulltext-5

0718-560X

Jorge O. Pierini, Eduardo A. Gómez, Luciano Telesca,

Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

The identification of suitable models for predicting daily water flow is important for planning and management of water storage in reservoirs of Argentina. Long-term prediction of water flow is crucial for regulating reservoirs and hydroelectric plants, for assessing environmental protection and sustainable development, for guaranteeing correct operation of public water supply in cities like Catriel, 25 de Mayo, Colorado River and potentially also Bahía Blanca. In this paper, we analyze in Buta Ranquil flow time series upstream reservoir and hydroelectric plant in order to model and predict daily fluctuations. We compare results obtained by using a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive (AR) model, using 18 years of data, of which the last 3 years are used for model validation by means of the root mean square error (RMSE), and measure of certainty (Skill). Our results point out to the better performance to predict daily water flow or refill them of the ANN model performance respect to the AR model.