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Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault

2010; Geological Society of America; Volume: 38; Issue: 6 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1130/g30746.1

1943-2682

Katherine M. Scharer, G. P. Biasi, Ray J. Weldon, T. E. Fumal,

Geological and Geochemical Analysis

Research Article| June 01, 2010 Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault Katherine M. Scharer; Katherine M. Scharer * 1Department of Geology, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina 28608, USA *E-mail: scharerkm@appstate.edu. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Glenn P. Biasi; Glenn P. Biasi 2Seismological Laboratory, University of Nevada-Reno, Reno, Nevada 89557, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Ray J. Weldon, II; Ray J. Weldon, II 3Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97405, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Tom E. Fumal Tom E. Fumal 4U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California 94025, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Katherine M. Scharer * 1Department of Geology, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina 28608, USA Glenn P. Biasi 2Seismological Laboratory, University of Nevada-Reno, Reno, Nevada 89557, USA Ray J. Weldon, II 3Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97405, USA Tom E. Fumal 4U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California 94025, USA *E-mail: scharerkm@appstate.edu. Publisher: Geological Society of America Received: 02 Oct 2009 Revision Received: 20 Jan 2010 Accepted: 22 Jan 2010 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2682 Print ISSN: 0091-7613 © 2010 Geological Society of America Geology (2010) 38 (6): 555–558. https://doi.org/10.1130/G30746.1 Article history Received: 02 Oct 2009 Revision Received: 20 Jan 2010 Accepted: 22 Jan 2010 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Katherine M. Scharer, Glenn P. Biasi, Ray J. Weldon, Tom E. Fumal; Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Geology 2010;; 38 (6): 555–558. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G30746.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ∼100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.