Israel and the Realities of Mutual DeterrenceRalph Sanders is J. Carlton Ward, Jr, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, National Defence University, Industrial College of the Armed Forces, USA.
2009; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 15; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/13537120802574302
ISSN1743-9086
Autores Tópico(s)Middle East and Rwanda Conflicts
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. See Michael Rubin, ‘Can Iran Be Trusted?’, Washington, DC, 2 September 2006; and David Albright, ‘When Could Iran Get the Bomb?’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2006, pp. 26–33; National Intelligence Estimate, Iran Nuclear Intelligence and Capabilities, 3 December 2007; Henry Kissinger, ‘Misreading the Iran Report: Why Spying and Policymaking Don't Mix’, Washington Post, 13 December 2007; ‘Israeli Envoy to Persuade US on Iran’, The Jerusalem Post, 16 December 2007. 2. The exact number of Israel's nuclear weapons is not known. See Robert S. Norris, William Arkin, Hans M. Kristensen and Joshua Handler, ‘Israeli Nuclear Forces, 2002’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2002, pp. 73–75 and Hirsh Goodman, ‘Israel's Unlikely Shield’, The Jerusalem Report, 31 October 2005, p. 9; Seymour Hersh, the celebrated investigative reporter, in 1991 argued that Israel had a nuclear arsenal far larger than previously suspected by the United States. See Seymour Hersh, The Sampson Option: Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy, New York, 1991. See also Louis Rene Beres (ed.), Security or Armageddon: Israel's Nuclear Strategy, Lanham, MD, 1986. 3. Ethan Bronner, ‘Just How Far Did They Go, Those Words Against Israel?’, New York Times, 11 June 2006. 4. For insight into the question of Iranian attitudes towards Israel see Sreeram Chaulia, ‘A Book Review of a Systems Solution to the Middle East, by Gawdat Bahgat’, Middle East, 8 April 2006, pp. 1–5. Available online at: http://209.83.165.104/search?q = cache:RS2jkQmJ53oJ:www.asiatimes 5. See ‘Nuclear Weapons’, FAS WMD Around the World, 8 January 2007, pp. 1–3. Available online at: http://209.85.165.104/search? = cache:U60Zd5RjtrEJ:www.fas.org/. Ian Turner, ‘Secret Services Say Iran Is Trying to Assemble a Nuclear Missile’, Guardian Unlimited, 4 January 2006. Available online at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/O.12858.1677542.00 htmlz 6. ‘Chronology of Key Events Related to the Implementation of IAEA Safeguards in Iran’, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 16 June 2006. Available online at: ens.miis.edu/pubs/week/060120 htm and Mark Hasenball, ‘Intelligence: How Close Is Iran to Having Nuclear Weapons?’, Newsweek, 25 September 2006, p. 6. 7. Sources on the Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 include: ‘Shahab 3/Zelzal 3, FAS Weapons of Mass Destruction Around the World’, 14 December 2006, p. 1. Available online at: http://fas.org/nuke/guide/Iran/missile/shahab-3.htm and ‘Shahab 4, FAS Weapons of Mass Destruction Around the World, 27 January 2007, p. 1. Available online at: http://fas.org/nuke/guide/Iran/missile./shahab-4.htm 8. Amnon Barzilai, ‘Military Reviews Nuclear Policy, As Israel Called “Vulnerable” to Missile Attack’, Ha'aretz, 25 August 1998; David Rodman, ‘Israel's National Security Doctrine: An Introductory Overview’, Middle East Review of International Affairs, September, 2001, pp. 1–13 and Sharad Joshi, ‘Israel's Nuclear Policy: A Cost Benefit Analysis’, Strategic Analysis, Vol. XXII, No. 12, 2000. Available online at: http://www.ciaonet.org/oli/sa/sa_00jos01.html; Bard O'Neil, ‘Israel’, in Douglas J. Murray and Paul R. Viotti (eds), The Defense Policies of Nations, Baltimore, NJ, 1994, pp. 497–541. 9. See George Conger, ‘Israel Urged to End Nuclear Ambiguity’, The Jerusalem Post, 12 March 2007. For an informative account of Israel's nuclear programme, see Avner Cohen, Israel and the Bomb, New York, 1998 and Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Meant for the World, New York, 2006. An informative analysis of the question of the ‘opaque’ nuclear posture appears in Avner Cohen and Benjamin Frankel (eds), Opaque Nuclear Proliferation: Methodological and Policy Implications, London and Portland, OR, 1990; and Rodman, ‘Israel's National Security Doctrine’. 10. Barbara Opal-Rome, ‘Israel Officials Hint at Cracks in Nuclear Code of Silence’, Defense News, September, 1998; Walter Pincus, ‘Israel Has Sub-Based Atomic Arms Capability’, The Washington Post, 15 June 2002 and Serge Schmemann, ‘Israel Clings to “Nuclear Ambiguity”, New York Times, 21 June 1998. 11. Dan Margalit, ‘Ambiguity Is Preferable’, Ha'aretz, 10 September 1998. 12. Asher Arian, ‘Public Opinion and Nuclear Weapons’, Strategic Assessment, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1998. 13. Opal-Rome, ‘Israel Officials Hint at Cracks In Nuclear Code of Silence’. 14. Schmemann, ‘Israel Clings to ‘Nuclear Ambiguity’ and Ze'ev Schiff, ‘No Change in the Nuclear Policy’, Ha'aretz, 11 September 1998. 15. Efraim Inbar, ‘The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran’, The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2006; and Efraim Inbar, ‘The Imperative Use of Force Against Iranian Nuclearization’, The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Bar Illan University, Ramat Gan, Israel, 15 December 2005. 16. Efraim Inbar, ‘The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran’, The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2006 See also Mel Levine, Alex Turkeltaub and Alex Gorbansky, ‘3 Myths About the Iran Conflict’, The Washington Post, 7 February 2006; Robert A. Pape, ‘Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work’, International Security, Vol. 27, No. 3, 1997; Abbas Milani, ‘US Foreign Policy and the Future of Democracy in Iran’, Washington Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 3, 2005; Barry Rubin, Cauldron of Turmoil: America in the Middle East, New York, 1992. 17. Inbar, ‘The Imperative Use of Force Against Iranian Nuclearization’. For other arguments to bomb Iran see Edward Lutwak, ‘In a Single Night’, Wall Street Journal, 8 February 2006 and Carol Giacomo, ‘US Senators Say Military Strike on Iran Must Be an Option’, Reuters, 15 January 2006. Available online at: http://roville.blogspot.com/2006/01/us-senators-military-strike-on-Iran.html 18. ‘Israel's Strategic Future: The Final Report of Project Daniel’, The Ariel Center for Policy Research: Israel's National Security, April, 2004. Available online at: http://www.acpr.org. il/ins/articles/Daniel1.htm and Amnon Barzilai, ‘Military Reviews Nuclear Policy’. 19. Yossi Yona, ‘Before We Bomb Iran’, YNet News, 17 September 2006. Available online at: http://libertyrocks.wordpress.com/2006/09/20/09_17_18worldptii/. See also, Lucien S. Vanderbrouke, ‘The Israeli Strike Against Osiraq’, Air University Review, Vol. XXXV, No. 6, 1984; and Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, in US Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Hearings, ‘The Israeli Air Strike’, 97th Congress, lst Session, 1981, pp. 60 and 89. 20. Louis Rene Beres is a frequent contributor to analyses of Israel's national security policy, including nuclear deterrence. See Louis Rene Beres (ed.), Security or Armageddon: Israel's Nuclear Strategy, Lexington, MA, 1986. 21. ‘Peres Admits to Israeli Nuclear Capability’, Israel Wire, 14 July 1998. Available online at: http://www.israel/wire.com 22. See Project Daniel. See also Avner Cohen in ‘Rosner's Guest’, Ha'aretz, 3 October 2006. 23. Eliot A. Cohen, Michael J. Eisenstadt and Andrew J. Bacevitch, ‘Jewish State Studies Atomic Arms Option After Founding’, Washington Times, 12 August 1998. Available online at: http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdmc/israel.htm 24. ‘Mutual Deterrence’, Speech by Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, Atomic Archives, San Francisco, CA, 18 September 1967; David. A, Fulghum, ‘Nuclear Response: Israel's Military Makes Changes that Would Allow It to Fight After an Attack on Its Networks’, Aviation Week and Space Technology, Vol. 168:10, 2006. 25. ‘Peres Admits to Israeli Nuclear Capability’. 26. Avner Cohen, ‘Rosner's Guest’. 27. It is important to note that Israel is not debating whether it should acquire the deterrence weapons that make up its Triad, but, rather, has been obtaining these weapons for many years. See Ralph Sanders, ‘Israel's Triad Deterrence Doctrine for the Middle East’, The Macabbean Online, 3 July 2006. Available online at: hxtp//www.freeman.org/…/Indexorg/…//index.php?.archives/300-Israel's-Triad-Deterrence-Doctrine-for-the-MiddleEast.html 28. For a brief survey of the Jericho missile see ‘Missile Overview’, NTI: Israel Profile, March 2006. See also Douglas Frantz, ‘Israel Adds Fuel to Nuclear Dispute’, Los Angeles Times, 12 October 2003. Available online at: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/1012-02htm 29. ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction: Jericho 2’, Global Security, 28 April 2005. Available online at: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wind/world/israel/Jericho 2.htm 30. Frantz, ‘Israel Adds Fuel to Nuclear Dispute’. 31. ‘Israel's Space Launch History: Questions and Answers’, Space Today Online. Available online at: http://www.spacetoday.org.questions/MiddleEastSpaceRockets.html 32. Jeffrey Young, ‘Israeli Air Power Dominates Middle East’, News Voice of America, 25 July 2006. Available online at: http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2006-07/IsraeliAir2006-07-25-voa67.cfm?textmode = 1 33. Even Communist China took note of a probable Israeli attack by air. See ‘Israel's F-16 Warplanes Likely to Carry Nuclear Weapons’, People's Daily, August, 2002. Available online at: http://english.people.com.cn/200208/20/eng20020820_101736.shtml 34. Pincus, ‘Israel Has Sub-Based Atomic Arms Capability’. 35. Norris et al., ‘Israel Nuclear Forces, 2002’. 36. ‘McDonnell Douglas F-15I Eagle (Ra'am)’, Jewish Virtual Library (A Division of The American-Israel Cooperation Enterprise), 1 September 2006. 37. Harold Hough, ‘Could Israel's Nuclear Assets Survive a Pre-Emptive Strike?’, Jane's Intelligence Review, 9 January 1997. 38. Harold Hough, ‘Could Israel's Nuclear Assets Survive a Pre-Emptive Strike?’, Jane's Intelligence Review, 9 January 1997 39. Mark Lavie, ‘German-Built Submarine Ushers in New Era for Israeli Navy’, Associated Press, 27 July 1999. Available online at: http://www.seacoastonline.com/1999news/7_27_w-2.htm; Bob Evans, ‘Israel-Submarines’, Stratfor, 25 October 2000. Available online at: http://alert@Stratfor.com, and ‘First Dolphins Move in on Israeli Navy’, Jane's International Defense Review, 24 August 1999. 40. Yossi Melman, ‘Swimming With the Dolphins’, Ha'aretz, 9 January 1998; ‘First Dolphins Move in on Israeli Navy’; ‘Israel Moves—Quickly—to Beef Up Its Submarine Force’, Global Intelligence, 26 October 2000; and Sanders, ‘Israel's Triad Deterrence Doctrine for the Middle East’. 41. This range easily enables Dolphin submarines to gain access to Iran, possibly requiring at-sea refuelling. 42. The Dolphin's torpedo tubes can be fitted to launch cruise missiles (possibly with nuclear warheads). 43. Yaakov Katz, ‘Israeli Commando Mission Come Out of Shadows’, USA Today, 13 August 2006. 44. Arieh O'Sullivan, ‘New Horizons—As Israel's Strategic Depth Contracts, Visionaries Are Looking to the Sea’, Jerusalem Post, 13 December 2003. Available online at: http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1039663/posts 45. Germany has shown a favourable attitude toward Israel for many years and its submarine sale indicates that it continues to do so. See ‘German Chancellor Backs US and Israel in Nuclear Dispute With Iran’, BBC Monitoring International Reports, 5 May 2006. For a useful discussion of Israel's navy up to 1990 see Efraim Inbar, ‘The Israeli Navy’, Naval War College Review, Winter, 1990; Martin Sieff, ‘Israel Buying 3 Submarines to Carry Nuclear Missiles’, The Washington Times, 1 July 1998 and Walter Pincus, ‘Israel Has Sub-Based Atomic Arms Capability’, The Washington Post, 15 June 2002 and ‘Nuclear Overview’, NTI:Working for a Safer World, 30 January 2007. 46. Arieh O'Sullivan, ‘Navy to Get 2 More Dolphin Subs’, The Jerusalem Post, 19 November and 20 November 2005. Available online at: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellie?cid = 113220215141%pagename = JPost%2FJPAtticle%2FShowFull; and Lord Jackarse, ‘Germany Announces Plans to Deliver Two Submarines’, Associated Press, 24 August 2006. Available online at: http://www.gatago.com/UK/currentevents/terrorism/2830-5562.html; ‘Germany May Sell 2 More Subs to Israel for $1.17B’, Defense Industry Daily, 23 November 2005. Available online at: http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/2005/11/germany-may-sell-2-more-dolphin-subs-to-Israel-for 117b/index.php 47. Haifa is Israel's chief port for both military and commercial shipping. Israel's submarine force has its headquarters in Haifa. 48. Dave Eberhart, ‘Silent Nuclear Submarines Add to Iran Tension’, News-Max, 13 April 2006. Available online at: http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/4/12/222400.shtml 49. Yaakov Katz, ‘German Sub Delivery Postponed’, International Post, 25 August 2006. Available online at: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid = 11545252594503&pagename = JPost%2FPArticle%2FShowFall 50. ‘Popeye Turbo’, WMD Around the World, 10 February 2007. Available online at: http://209.85.165.104/search?q = cache 51. Frantz, ‘Israel Adds Fuel to Nuclear Dispute’. 52. Sam Ser, ‘Tangling with Teheran’, Jerusalem Post Online, 28 September 2006. Availble online at: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid = 11593334422&pagename = JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter 53. Ralph Sanders, ‘The Arrow: Israel's Missile Defense’, The Maccabean, January 2003. Available online at: http://www.freeman.org/m_online/an03/sanders.htm and Amron Barzilai, ‘An Arrow to the Heart’, Ha'artez, 15 November 2002. 54. Uzi Rubin, ‘Meeting the ‘Depth Threat’ in Iraq—The Origins of Israel's Arrow System’, Jerusalem Issue Brief, Vol. 2, No. 19, 2003, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs; Sanders, ‘The Arrow: Israel's Missile Defense’ and Barzilai, ‘An Arrow to the Heart’. See also Harel Amos, ‘Arrow: Anti-missile Defence System Successfully Tested in US’, Ha'aretz, 30 July 2004 and Arieh O'Sullivan, ‘Arrow Missile Test Succeeds’, Jerusalem Post, 14 December 2003. 55. Adam Entous, ‘With US Help, Israel May Boost Missile Production’, Reuters News, January 16, 2004 < www.missilethreat.com/systems/arrow_israel.html>. 56. ‘Nuclear Overview: Introduction’, NTI: Working for a Safer World, 30 January 2007. Available online at: http://209.85.165..104/search?q = cache:JVJyDQfSs2gJ:www.nti.org/… 57. Amir Mizroch, ‘Israel Must Prepare for Space Warfare’, Israel.jpost, 1 February 2007. Available online at: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c = 11674678… 58. Yossi Melman, ‘Mutually Assured Uncertainty’, Ha'aretz, 30 June 2005. 59. ‘Rafsanjani Says Muslims Should Use Nuclear Weapon Against Israel’, Iran Press Service, 4 December 2006. Available online at: http://209.85.165.104/search?q = cache:jBZxWXWQF5gJ:www.iran-p… 60. Tovah Lazaroff and David Horovitz, ‘The Iranians Do Not Expect to Be Attacked’, jpost, 31 January 2007. Available online at: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage = 1&cid = 11674678605… 61. ‘The Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons and the Case for Disarmaent’, Pugwash on line, 25–27 March 2001. Available online at: http://72.14.209.104/search?q = cache:LRkqudEWD3eJ:www.pugwas… 62. ‘Nuclear Weapons’, FAS WMD Around the World, 2 February 2007. Available online at: http://209.85.165.104/search?q = cache:U60Zd5RjtrEJ:www.fas.org/n…
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