Under the Shrinking U.S. Security Umbrella: India's End Game in Afghanistan?
2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 34; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/0163660x.2011.562461
ISSN1530-9177
Autores Tópico(s)Peacebuilding and International Security
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Acknowledgements She thanks colleagues, panelists, and audience participants in the Century Foundation's Pickering–Brahimi Task Force on Afghanistan and two conferences at Columbia University for their thoughtful commentary, which helped improve earlier drafts of this article. This essay is derived from a report the author drafted for the Century Foundation The author alone is responsible for any errors of interpretation or fact. Notes 1. Embassy of India, “Profile of the terrorist group involved in hijacking,” December 27, 1999, http://www.indianembassy.org/prdetail1275/profile-of-the-terrorist-group-involved-in-hijacking-of-indian-. 2. Praveen Swami, “Terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir in theory and practice,” India Review 2, no. 3 (July 2003): pp. 55–88. 3. AU Asif, “New phase in Indo-Afghan relations,” Milli Gazette, January 1, 2002, http://www.milligazette.com/Archives/01012002/0101200223.htm. 4. Peter Wonacott, “India Befriends Afghanistan, Irking Pakistan,” Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125061548456340511.html. 5. This section draws on several rounds of fieldwork in India between June 2003 and April 2010. 6. C. Raja Mohan, “India and the Balance of Power,” Foreign Affairs 85, no. 4 (July/August 2006): pp. 17–34. 7. See Satu P. Limaye, “The Weakest Link, but not Goodbye,” Comparative Connections 4, no. 4 (2003), http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/0204qindia_easia.pdf; Sushil J. Aaron, Straddling Faultlines: India's Foreign Policy Toward the Greater Middle East, Centre de Sciences Humaines Occasional Paper (New Delhi: Publication of the French Research Institutes in India, Rajdhani Art Press, 2003); Meena Singh Roy, “India's interests in Central Asia,” Strategic Analysis 24, no. 12 (2001): pp. 2273–2289; and Stephen Blank, “The Indian-Iranian Connection and Its Importance for Central Asia,” Eurasianet.org, March 11, 2003, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav031203.shtml. 8. See Mariam Abou Zahab, “I Shall be Waiting at the Door of Paradise: The Pakistani Martyrs of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure),” in The Practice of War: Production, Reproduction and Communication of Armed Violence, ed. Rao Aparna et al. (New York: Berghahn Books, 2007), pp.133–158. 9. See C. Christine Fair, “The Militant Challenge in Pakistan,” Asia Policy 11 (January 2011): pp. 105–137. 10. See C. Christine Fair, “Students Islamic Movement of India and the Indian Mujahideen: An Assessment,” Asia Policy 9 (January 2010): pp. 101–119; Apoorva Shah, “The ‘Idea of India’ after Mumbai,” American Enterprise Institute, May 2009, http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/AEI_IdeaOfIndiaAfterMumbai.pdf. 11. Christophe Jaffrelot, “Abhinav Bharat, the Malegaon Blast and Hindu Nationalism: Resisting and Emulating Islamist Terrorism,” Economic & Political Weekly 14, no. 36 (September 4, 2010): pp. 51–58; Ashish Khetan, “Hindutva Terror,” Tehelka Magazine 8, no. 2 (January 15, 2011), http://www.tehelka.com/story_main48.asp?filename=Ne150111Coverstory.asp#. 12. See Fahmida Ashraf, “India-Afghanistan Relations: Post-9/11,” Strategic Analysis 27, no. 2 (2007), http://www.issi.org.pk/ss_Detail.php?dataId=432. 13. Reportedly, the ARC operates a fleet of spy aircraft that provides the RAW with aerial reconnaissance, communications and electronics intelligence, and imagery analysis. See Rahul Bedi, “India and Central Asia,” Frontline 19, no. 19 (September 14–27, 2002), http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl1919/19190600.htm. 14. Government of India, Ministry of External Affairs, “Ministry of External Affairs Annual Report 2000–2001,” http://meaindia.nic.in/meaxpsite/annualreport/ar20002001.pdf. 15. “India extends $450-m aid to Afghanistan,” The Financial Express, August 5, 2008, http://www.financialexpress.com/news/india-extends-450m-aid-to-afghanistan/344577/. An exact accounting of aid disbursed is very difficult to determine and thus exact figures are not generally available. Aid that is pledged is often not committed (i.e., budgeted). Once aid is committed, it is often not executed or disbursed in the recipient country for a number of reasons. However, according to Afghan government figures cited by Matt Waldman in his study for the Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief, India has only disbursed about one third of its commitment for 2002–2008. In contrast, the United States has disbursed about half, whereas the European Commission and Germany have disbursed about two thirds. See Matt Waldman, “Falling Short: Aid Effectiveness in Afghanistan,” Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief, March 2008, http://www.acbar.org/ACBAR%20Publications/ACBAR%20Aid%20Effectiveness%20%2825%20Mar%2008%29.pdf. For a discussion of Indian aid to Afghanistan, see Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, “Change the Pattern of Aid to Afghanistan,” Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, June 28, 2007, http://www.idsa.in/idsastrategiccomments/ChangethePatternofAidtoAfghanistan_SMDSouza_280607; and Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, “India's Aid to Afghanistan: Challenges and Prospects,” Strategic Analysis 31, no. 5 (2007): pp. 833–842. 16. For a detailed account of Indian assistance, see Indian Embassy (Kabul), “India's Assistance Programme for Afghanistan's Reconstruction,” http://meakabul.nic.in/; also see V.K. Shashkikumar, “The India Factor in Afghanistan,” Indian Defence Review 23, no. 3 (July-September 2008), http://www.indiandefencereview.com/2009/05/the-india-factor-in-afghanistan.html. 17. Wonacott, “India Befriends Afghanistan, Irking Pakistan.” 18. For details see the various annual reports of India's Ministry of External Affairs, http://meaindia.nic.in/mystart.php?id=2702. 19. “India's developmental efforts in Afghanistan get U.S. endorsement,” Economic Times, April 20, 2010, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/Indias-developmental-efforts-in-Afghanistan-get-US-endorsement/articleshow/5834076.cms. 20. For details see the various annual reports of India's Ministry of External Affairs, http://meaindia.nic.in/mystart.php?id=2702. 21. See the official website of the Border Roads Organisation, http://www.bro.nic.in/index1.asp?linkid=94&lang=1. 22. See “India to send more ITBP troops to Afghanistan,” Rediff.com, March 12, 2010, http://news.rediff.com/report/2010/mar/12/india-to-send-more-itbp-troops-to-afghanistan.htm. 23. See Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, “Pakistanis Aided Attack in Kabul, U.S. Officials Say,” New York Times, August 1, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/world/asia/01pstan.html?_r=2. 24. “U.S. embassy cables: Karzai admits to sheltering Baloch nationalists,” The Guardian, December 1, 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/93284. 25. See “RAW is Training 600 Baluchis in Afghanistan: Mushahid Hussain,” Boloji.com, May 14, 2006, http://www.boloji.com/analysis2/0116.htm. 26. Author interviews with Pakistani military and intelligence officials in July 2010. Also see “India, Afghanistan supporting militants in Pakistan,” Dawn, September 19, 2009, http://news.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/13+india+afghanistan+supporting+militants+in+pakistan-za-03. 27. Author interviews in Pakistan in April 2009 and July and August 2010. Also see “Editorial: Interpreting the Sharm al-Sheikh meeting,” The Daily Times, July 18, 2009, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009/07/18/story_18-7-2009_pg3_1. 28. See “WikiLeaks: Pak terror camps resumed anti-India ops,” Rediff.com, December 11, 2010. http://www.rediff.com/news/report/wikileaks-pak-terror-camps-resumed-anti-india-ops/20101211.htm. 29. See Nitin Pai and Rohit Pradhan, “Why India Must Send Troops to Afghanistan,” Pragati, January 2010, http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2010/01/why-india-must-send-troops-to-afghanistan/. 30. “Indian Muslims do not welcome U.S. Prez: Indian Leader,” AhlulBayt News Agency, October 30, 2010, http://www.abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&Id=211062. 31. Pal and Pradhan, “Why India must send troops to Afghanistan.” 32. D. Suba Chandran, “Plan B for India in Afghanistan ∣ Let Pakistan remain entrapped,” South Asia Monitor, January 12, 2011, http://www.southasiamonitor.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1286:plan-b-for-india-in-afghanistan–let-pakistan-remain-entrapped&catid=51:af-pak-&Itemid=101. 33. Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, “Hold Steady in Afghanistan,” Pragati, August 2008,http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/pragati-issue17-aug2008-communityed.pdf. 34. See Abbas Daiyar, “India should extend its role in Afghanistan,” Pragati,April 2010, http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2010/04/india-should-extend-its-role-in-afghanistan/. 35. Ashley J. Tellis, “South Asia: U.S. Policy Choices,” in Taking Charge: A Bipartisan Report to the President-Elect on Foreign Policy and National Security—Discussion Papers, eds. Frank Carlucci, Robert E. Hunter, and Zalmay Khalilzad (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001): p. 88, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1306z1.html; also see Ashley J. Tellis, “The Merits of Dehyphenation: Explaining U.S. Success in Engaging India and Pakistan,” The Washington Quarterly 31, no. 4 (Autumn 2008): pp. 21–42, http://twq.com/08autumn/docs/08autumn_tellis.pdf. 36. For the most articulated version of this vision, see Ashley J. Tellis, India as a New Global Power: An Action Agenda for the United States (Washington D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CEIP_India_strategy_2006.FINAL.pdf. 37. Marshall M. Bouton and Alyssa Ayres, “We Need India's Help In Afghanistan,” Forbes.com, November 24, 2009, http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/23/india-afghanistan-manmohan-singh-opinions-contributors-mumbai.html; also see “WikiLeaks Cablegate: India should reduce footprint in Afghanistan, says Pak,” IBNLive.com, December 11 2010, http://ibnlive.in.com/news/wikileaks-cablegate-india-should-reduce-footprint-in-afghanistan-says-pak/136264-53.html. 38. Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, “From Great Game to Grand Bargain: Ending Chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Foreign Affairs 87, no. 6 (November/December 2008): pp. 30–44. 39. Lisa Curtis, “Afghanistan and Pakistan: Understanding and Engaging Regional Stakeholders,” testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, March 31, 2009, http://www.heritage.org/research/asiaandthepacific/tst040209a.cfm. Additional informationNotes on contributorsC. Christine FairC. Christine Fair is an assistant professor at Georgetown University
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