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Research Note: Forecasting Film-Induced Tourism — The Dolphin Tale Case

2013; SAGE Publishing; Volume: 20; Issue: 6 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5367/te.2013.0339

2044-0375

Maria Luisa Cortón, Maling Ebrahimpour,

Economic and Environmental Valuation

Dolphin Tale is a major motion picture released by Warner Brothers in 2011. The authors forecast the number of visitors to the film location, including the film-induced tourism effect originated by Dolphin Tale. They use intervention analysis to measure this effect, with the pre-film series forecasted trend as the comparison baseline instead of the usual linear trend. They address the proper modelling of the series seasonality in the presence of an abrupt increase in visitors immediately after the premiere and a lack of data on the subsequent months. They find that the film induced a 51% increase in the mean level of visitors to the location.