Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Endings and Beginnings? Republicanism Since 1994

2014; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 37; Issue: 9 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/1057610x.2014.931211

1521-0731

Kevin Bean,

Historical Studies of British Isles

AbstractThis article traces the political and ideological development of the various strands of Irish Republicanism since 1994, with particular focus on the transition of the Provisional movement from insurgency to government party. In particular, it explores some of the external and internal dynamics shaping this process, such as the origins of Provisionalism as a social movement organization and the changing relationship between the nationalist population and the British state. It concludes by considering both the possible future trajectory of the Provisionals and the potential of dissident republicans to mount a serious political challenge to the status quo in Northern Ireland. Notes1 “IRA Ceasefire: The Ceasefire Statement,” The Independent 1 September 1994. Available at http://www.independent.co.uk/news-ira-ceasefire-theceasefire-statement-1445922.html (accessed 19 October 2013).2 For one account that illustrates some of the difficulties in analyzing Provisional Sinn Féin's political evolution over this period see M. Frampton, The Long March: The Political Strategy of Sinn Fein 1981–2007 (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009).3 For a detailed account of Unionist reaction to the cease-fire see F. Cochrane, Unionist Politics and the Politics of Unionism Since the Anglo-Irish Agreement (Cork: Cork University Press, 2001).4 For the Provisional discussion in 1994 around the “Tactical Use of Armed Struggle” see E. Moloney, A Secret History of the IRA (London: Penguin, Allen Lane 2002). For Provisional assessments of unionist tactics in this period, including James Molyneaux's alleged slip of the tongue that the IRA cease-fire was “the greatest threat to the union in sixty years” see D. Morrison, At Last. 2007. Available at http://www.dannymorrison.com/wp-content/dannymorrisonarchive/193.htm (accessed 23 October 2013).5 For an example of this rhetoric see “Gerry Adams Addresses Sinn Féin All Ireland Conference on Border Region,” 24 October 2006. Available at http://www.irelandofequals.com/news/2074 (accessed 23 October 2013). A good summary of dissident critiques of Provisional strategy can be found in L.Ó Ruairc, “Ditching Republicanism,” Weekly Worker 16 June 2005. For Ian Paisley's assessment of Sinn Féin's de facto acceptance of the constitutional status of Northern Ireland, see “I did ‘Smash’ Sinn Fein-Paisley,” BBC News, 9 March 2008. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7285912.stm (accessed 23 October 2013).6 “The Queen and Martin McGuinness Shake Hands and Make History,” The Guardian 27 June 2012. Available at http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/jun/27/queen-martin-mcguinness-shake-hands (accessed 27 September 2013).7 Sinn Féin, Advancing the Peace Process. Available at http://www.sinnfein.ie/peace-process (accessed 27 September 2013).8 T. McKearney, The Provisional IRA: From Insurrection to Parliament (London: Pluto Press, 2011).9 For a British military assessment of IRA strategy and capability in the late 1970s see “The Glover Report,’ reproduced as an appendix in S. Cronin, Irish Nationalism: A History of its Roots and Ideology (London: Continuum, 1980). For an assessment of the IRA's campaign and its limitations see M. L. R. Smith, Fighting for Ireland? The Military Strategy of the Irish Republican Movement (London: Routledge 1997); K. Bean and M. Hayes, Republican Voices (Monaghan: Seesyu 2001) consider republican views of “the armed struggle” in the 1980s and 1990s.10 For aspects of Provisional strategy toward unionists see “Lion and Lamb Interview: John Dunlop and Danny Morrison in Conversation, 2006. Available at http://www.contemporarychristianity.net/lionandlamb/041/interview.html (accessed 24 October 2013).11 For the significance of decommissioning and political violence during the peace process negotiations see J. Powell, Great Hatred, Little Room: Making Peace in Northern Ireland (London: The Bodley Head, 2008); P. Dixon, “Political Skills or Lying and Manipulation? The Choreography of the Northern Ireland Peace Process,” Political Studies 50(4) (2002), pp. 725–741; and A. Campbell and K. Gilfillan, eds., The Irish Diaries 1994–2003 (London: The Lilliput Press, 2013). For an SDLP perspective see O. Bowcott, “I Wouldn't Have Taken His Word for Anything: Interview with Seamus Mallon,” The Guardian 14 March 2007.12 A. McIntyre, Good Friday: The Death of Irish Republicanism (New York: Ausubo Press 2008).13 For an insight into how a leading IRA figure justified this strategy see B. Keenan, “Leading IRA Strategist in ‘The Long War’ Speaks to An Poblacht.” Available at www.sinnfein.ie/contents/12019 (accessed 24 June 2013).14 G. Adams, A Farther Shore: Ireland's Long Road to Peace (New York: Random House 2003). See also Powell, Great Hatred, Little Room for an assessment of Sinn Féin's negotiating strategy in this period.15 The Sunningdale Agreement was an attempt to establish a power-sharing Executive in 1973 involving unionist and nationalist parties and a cross-border Council of Ireland. Unionist opposition, violence, and a loyalist general strike caused the collapse of the Agreement in May 1974.16 F. Millar, “Former Blair Aide Reveals Detail of Negotiating Process Prior to Belfast Agreement,” The Irish Times 18 March 2008. See also A. Campbell and R. Stott, eds., The Blair Years: Extracts from the Alastair Campbell Diaries (London: Hutchinson, 2007).17 D. Walsh and E. O’Malley, The Growth of Sinn Féin: From Minor Players to Centre Stage? Working Papers in International Studies, No. 2, 2012.18 ARK, Northern Ireland Elections 1968–2011. Available at http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/ (accessed 21 June 2013).19 ElectionsIreland, Election Results 1997–2011. Available at http://electionsireland.org/results.cfm (accessed 22 June 2013).20 S. Collins, “Fianna Fáil Cement Position as Most Popular Party,” Irish Times 14 June 2013. For an assessment of Sinn Féin's growing opinion poll ratings and possible coalition with Fianna Fáil see H. McGee and D. Griffin, “Howlin: Labour Will Struggle until Economy Recovers,” Irish Times 1 October 2013. Available at http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/howlin-labour-will-struggle-until-economy-recovers-1.1545588 and H. McGee, “Doherty and McDonald Out Front as SF Seeks Adams Successor,” Irish Times 2 November 2013. Available at http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/doherty-and-mcdonald-out-front-as-sfseeks-adams-successor-1 (accessed 3 November 2013).21 Interview with senior Sinn Féin strategist, 25 March 2003.22 M. Anderson, “The Great Experiment,” An Phoblacht 16 October 2003.23 Gerry Adams, “Presidential Address to the Sinn Féin Ard Fheis 2013.” Available at http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/26448 (accessed 22 June 2013).24 G. Adams, “Time to Show Courage and Take Risks,” An Phoblacht 4 January 2007.25 “SF: Self-Governing Proof of Good Friday Success,” Belfast Telegraph 21 March 2008.26 Peter Robinson, now First Minister and DUP leader, suggested in 2007 that any future DUP/Sinn Féin government would involve “a battle a day.” BBC News, “Government to be ‘battle a day.’” 3 March 2007. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6414637.stm (accessed 3 November 2013).27 P. Mitchell, G. Evans, and B. O’Leary, “Extremist Outbidding in Ethnic Party Systems is Not Inevitable: Tribune Parties in Northern Ireland,” Political Studies 57 (2009), pp. 397–421.28 K. Bean, The New Politics of Sinn Féin (Liverpool: Liverpool University Press 2007).29 Ibid.30 P. Shirlow, “The Economics of the Peace Process,” in C. Gilligan and J. Tonge (eds.), Peace or War? Understanding the Peace Process in Northern Ireland (Aldershot: Ashgate 1997), p. 133; P. Shirlow and M. McGovern, “Language, Discourse and Dialogue: Sinn Fein and the Irish Peace Process,” Political Geography 17 (1998), pp. 171–186.31 N. O’ Sullivan, “Northern Ireland to Get ‘Substantial’ Aid Package,” The Irish Post 10 May 2013.32 Interview with senior Sinn Féin strategist, 23 March 2005.33 H. McDonald, “Murdered Northern Irish Prison Officer was Orange Order Member,” The Guardian, 1 November 2012; “The Curse of the Conflict Junkies,” The Economist, 2 December 2010; “Murderers are Traitors to Ireland-McGuinness,” The News Letter, 11 March 2009; “Spin Doctors Bid to Rebrand Dissidents as ‘Residual Terrorist Group,’” Belfast Telegraph 10 December 2010, and “The Real IRA: Blast from the Past,” The Guardian 14 September 2010.34 “The Curse of the Conflict Junkies,” The Economist, 2 December 2010.35 “No Excuse for Armed Actions, Says Gerry Adams,” An Phoblacht, 14 April 2011.36 For differing views on the military potential of armed republican groups see J. Horgan, Divided We Stand: The Strategy and Psychology of Ireland's Dissident Terrorists (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2013) and D. McKittrick, “Threat of Terrorism in Northern Ireland ‘will last for years,’” The Independent 4 June 2013.37 “The militarist campaign:‘Who's Pulling the Strings?’ asks ex-POW Bobby Storey,” An Phoblacht, 2 July 2010. 38 “No Excuse for Armed Actions, Says Gerry Adams,” An Phoblacht 14 April 2011.39 B. McDaid, “RSF: Provos are Bullies,” Belfast Telegraph 29 March 2005.40 1916 Societies, Statement of Aims. Available at http://www.1916societies.com (accessed 23 September 2013).41 See, for example, P. M. Currie and M. Taylor, eds., Dissident Irish Republicanism (London and New York: Continuum 2011) and M. Frampton, “Dissident Irish Republican Violence: A Resurgent Threat?” The Political Quarterly 83(2) (2012), pp. 227–237.42 For an account of some of the differing ideological and strategic trends among “dissident” republicans see M. Frampton, Legion of the Rearguard: Dissident Irish Republicanism (London: Irish Academic Press 2011) and M. Hall, ed., Republicanism in Transition (1) The Need for a Debate (Belfast: Island Publications, 2011); Republicanism in Transition (2) Beginning a Debate (Belfast: Island Publications, 2011); Republicanism in Transition (3) Irish Republicanism Today (Belfast: Island Publications, 2012); Republicanism in Transition (4) The Question of “Armed Struggle” (Belfast: Island Publications, 2012); Republicanism in Transition (5) An Engagement with Loyalists (Belfast: Island Publications, 2012).43 See, for example, www.éirígí.org/campaigns and Republican Unity July 2013. Available at http://www.republicanunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/rr-July-p31.jpg (accessed 23 September 2013).44 “1916 Societies Aims and Objectives.” Available at http://www.1916societies.com (accessed 21 September 2013).45 See, for example, the individual accounts cited in Hall, ed., Republicanism in Transition (1) The Need for a Debate and Republicanism in Transition (2) Beginning a Debate; and Bean, The New Politics of Sinn Féin.46 A good example of both generational shifts in the support for dissident groups and the importance of specific local factors can be seen in the Ardoyne area of Belfast. See O. Craig, “Sinn Féin are Yesterday's Men,” The Daily Telegraph 19 July 2010; B. Rowan, “No Deal over Parades without Us: Dissident Republican,” Belfast Telegraph 19 July 2012.47 Republican Sinn Féin's self-consciously “purist” approach is in marked contrast to more recently emerging groups whose origins and political sociology are very different. For example, compare Republican Sinn Féin's emphasis on a commemorative culture that keeps the flame burning for a new generation in “Large Turnout for Bundoran Commemoration” Saoirse September 2011 with éirígí's focus on “the political legacy and significance of history for contemporary struggles” in “1913 Lockout and ICA Remembered in Dublin 16 September 2013.” Available at http://www.eirigi.org/latest/latest160913.html (accessed 15 October 2013).48 J. Tonge, “‘No-One Likes Us; We Don't Care’: ‘Dissident’ Irish Republicans and Mandates,” The Political Quarterly 83(2) (2012), pp. 219–226; “Shock as Dissident Support Revealed,” The News Letter 6 October 2010, and L. Clarke, “Poll: Quarter of Sinn Féin Supporters Still Backs Armed Struggle,” Belfast Telegraph 5 April 2013. For local election results see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/council/html/951.stm and “éirígí Poll 2,062 Votes in West Belfast,” 9 May 2011. Available at http://www.eirigi.org/latest/latest090511.html (accessed 20 September 2013). For growing support for dissident commemorations and demonstrations see C. Young, “Separate 1916 Events Reflect Divisions among Republicans,” Irish News 2 April 2013 and H. McDonald, “Police Chief Condemns Belfast Loyalists after Violence Leaves 56 Officers Injured,” The Guardian 10 August 2013.49 A. McIntyre, “A Dark Night in Belfast,” The Pensive Quill 2 May 2011. Available at http://the pensivequill.am/2011/05/dark-night-in-belfast.html (accessed 23 September 2013).50 J. Smyth, “Northern Ireland: A Peace to Protect,” Financial Times 14 August 2012; E. McCann, “Passive Support for ‘dissident’ Republicans,” Derry Journal 16 February 2010.51 Republican Network for Unity, Revolutionary Republicanism (Belfast 2013). 52 Interview with former Ardoyne Sinn Féin activist, July 2013.53 Interview with West Belfast Independent Republican, July 2013.54 Gerry Adams, “Presidential Address to the Sinn Féin Ard Fheis,” 2013. Available at http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/26448 (accessed 21 October 2013).55 J. Evans and J. Tonge, “Social Class and Party Choice in Northern Ireland's Ethnic Blocs,” West European Politics 32(5) (2009), pp. 1012–1030.56 ARK, Northern Ireland Elections 1968–2011. Available at http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/ (accessed 21 June 2013).57 A. Clark and R.Wilford, “Political Institutions, Engagement and Outreach: The Case of the Northern Ireland Assembly,” Parliamentary Affairs 6(2) (2012), pp. 380–403.58 L. Clarke, “Poll: Northern Ireland Still wants Devolved Government,” Belfast Telegraph 13 June 2012 and R. Wilson, “Belfast Telegraph Poll 2013: Road to Nowhere,” Belfast Telegraph 16 September 2013.59 For a discussion on these issues see P. Mason, “Twenty Reasons Why it's Kicking Off Everywhere,” Idle Scrawl; Paul Mason's blog Newsnight, 5 February 2011. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2011/02 (accessed 20 February 2013).