The Gulf's Renewed Oil Wealth: Getting it Right This Time?
2008; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 50; Issue: 6 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/00396330802601891
ISSN1468-2699
Autores Tópico(s)Socioeconomic Development in MENA
ResumoAbstract The dramatic escalation in the price of oil over the past seven years has allowed the Middle East and the Gulf states in particular to reap an incredible windfall. Early indications suggest that the region may be optimising these rewards with greater prudence than during past oil booms, by reducing debt, increasing savings and launching meaningful economic reforms. Still, it is hardly certain that mounting revenues will enable the region to successfully overcome the political and economic vulnerabilities inherent in oil-led development. The oil boom has neither saved nor doomed the Middle East, but rather opened new possibilities and heightened existing problems. International interest in ensuring the free flow of energy resources should prompt serious efforts by Washington and other capitals to enhance regional integration, encourage meaningful reform and promote long-term cooperation in cultivating a more stable, prosperous and sustainable future for the Middle East. Notes Mohamed Fadhel, ‘Expat Workers Strike as Earnings Are Hit’, Gulf Times, 18 February 18 2008, p. 9; ‘Car License Plate Sets World Record’, Gulf Times, 18 February 2008, p. 9. Moin Siddiqi, ‘Gulf Poised For Heady Surge into 2008 and Beyond’, Middle East, no. 387, March 2008, p. 42. Ibid. Fouad Ajami, ‘The Powers of Petrocracy’, US News & World Report, 19 December 2007, http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/fajami/2007/12/19/the-powers-of-petrocracy.html. National Petroleum Council, ‘Chapter 4: Geopolitics’, Facing Hard Truths About Energy, 18 July 2007, p. 4, http://www.npchardtruthsreport.org/download.php. Marilyn Radler, ‘MEGC: Oil Price Here to Stay; Demand Fails to Waver’, Oil & Gas Journal, vol. 106, no. 14, 14 April 2008, p. 28. Nick Snow, ‘US Foreign Policy Must Consider Changing Energy World,’ Oil & Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 3, 15 January 2007, pp. 39–40. Jahangir Amuzegar, Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls (London: I.B. Tauris, 2001), p. 222. Rachel Bronson, Thicker than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), p. 124. Pamela Ann Smith, ‘GCC Foreign Wealth Rises to $2 trillion’, Middle East, no. 388, April 2008, p. 37. Paul Dyer, ‘Will The Oil Boom Solve the Middle East Employment Crisis?’, Dubai School of Government, Policy Brief No. 1, November 2006, p. 2. ‘How to Spend It’, The Economist, 24 April 2008, http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/display-story.cfm?story_id=11088559. Smith, ‘GCC Foreign Wealth Rises to $2 trillion’, p. 37; ‘How to Spend It,’ The Economist. Smith, ‘GCC Foreign Wealth Rises to $2 trillion’, p. 37. Siddiqi, ‘Gulf Poised for Heady Surge’, p. 42. ‘How to Spend It’, The Economist; Kito de Boer, Diana Farrell, Chris Figee, Susan Lund, Fraser Thompson, and John Turner, ‘The Coming Oil Windfall in the Gulf’, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2008, p. 6, available at http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/pdfs/the_coming_oil_windfall/Coming_Oil_Windfall_in_he_Gulf.pdf. de Boer et al., ‘The Coming Oil Windfall in the Gulf’, p. 18. Smith, ‘GCC Foreign Wealth Rises to $2 trillion’, p. 37. Ibid. de Boer et al., ‘The Coming Oil Windfall in the Gulf’, p. 13. Glen Kessler, ‘Arab Aid to the Palestinians Often Doesn't Fulfill Pledges’, Washington Post, 27 July 2008, p. A16. de Boer et al., ‘The Coming Oil Windfall in the Gulf’, p. 18. Faiza Saleh Ambah, ‘Saudis Look Beyond Oil to New Economy in Desert’, Washington Post, 17 July 2008, p. A1. Siddiqi, ‘Gulf Poised For Heady Surge’, p. 42. Peter Sorel-Cameron, ‘Is the Gulf Headed for a Labor Crisis?’, CNN Marketplace Middle East, 14 March 2008, http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/03/14/labor.mme/index.html. ‘Labour Pains in the Middle East,’ Economist.com, 31 March 2008, http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10945607. Zvika Krieger, ‘Desert Bloom’, The Chronicle of Higher Education, vol. 54, no. 29, p. B7. Stefan Theil, ‘An Arab Opening’, Newsweek International, 20 August 2007, http://www.newsweek.com/id/32266/. For a discussion of rentierism in various states across the Middle East see Hazem Beblawi and Giacomo Luciani (eds), The Rentier State (London: Croom Helm, 1987). Samuel R. Schubert, ‘Revisiting the Oil Curse’, Development, vol. 49, no. 3, September 2006, pp. 64–70. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 49, no. 4, 2005, pp. 625–33; Michael L. Ross, ‘Blood Barrels: Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict’, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501faessay87301/michael-l-ross/blood-barrels.html. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Democracy and Resource Rents’, Global Poverty Research Group Working Paper, 26 April 2005, p. 18, http://users.ox.ac.uk/∼econpco/research/pdfs/Democracy-resource-rents.pdf. See also Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Testing the Neocon Agenda: Democracy in Resource-Rich Societies’, Working paper, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, November 2007, p. 32, accessed at http://users.ox.ac.uk/∼econpco/research/pdfs/TestingTheNeoconAgenda.pdf. Larry Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout The World (New York: Times Books, 2008). Diamond's observation on oil as an inhibitor of democracy is borne out by statistical analyses: see Michael L. Ross, ‘Does Oil Hinder Democracy?’, World Politics, no. 53, April 2001, pp. 325–61. ‘Freedom in the World Country Ratings 1972–2006’, Freedom House, http://www.freedomhouse.org/uploads/fiw/FIWAHScores.xls. Steven Heydemann, ‘Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World’, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Analysis Paper 13, October 2007, http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/10arabworld.aspx. Thomas L. Friedman, ‘The Democratic Recession’, New York Times, 7 May 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/opinion/07friedman.html). See also Thomas L. Friedman, ‘The First Law of Petropolitics’, Foreign Policy, April/May 2006, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3426. Navtej Dhillon, ‘Middle East Youth Bulge: Challenge or Opportunity?’, Presentation to Congressional staff, 22 May 2008, http://www.brookings.edu/speeches/2008/0522_middle_east_youth_dhillon.aspx. de Boer et al., ‘The Coming Oil Windfall in the Gulf’, p. 9. ‘Labour Pains in the Middle East,’ Economist.com. Siddiqi, ‘Gulf Poised For Heady Surge’, p. 42. Jeff Black, ‘Different This Time?’, Middle East, no. 388, April 2008, p. 35. ‘How to Spend It,’ The Economist. Ibid. Krieger, ‘Desert Bloom’, p. B7. Kenneth M. Pollack, ‘Drowning in Riches’, New York Times, 13 July 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/opinion/13pollack.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss. Anthony H. Cordesman, Energy Developments in the Middle East (Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 2004), 122–26. Ambah, ‘Saudis Look Beyond Oil to New Economy in Desert’, p. A1. For an excellent overview of the interconnections between economic and political reform in the Middle East, see Eva Bellin, ‘The Political-Economic Conundrum: The Affinity of Political and Economic Reform in the Middle East and North Africa’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Working Paper 53, November 2004, available at http://www.carnegieendow-ment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16051. President Bush's speech before the World Economic Forum, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, 18 May 2008), http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/05/20080518–6.html. Additional informationNotes on contributorsSuzanne Maloney A Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
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