Artigo Revisado por pares

The China–Pakistan–United States Strategic Triangle: From Cold War to the “War on Terrorism”

2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 38; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00927678.2011.604291

ISSN

1940-1590

Autores

Paul J. Smith,

Tópico(s)

International Relations and Foreign Policy

Resumo

Abstract The U.S. Navy SEAL raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and Islamabad's subsequent turn toward China have highlighted one of the most remarkable legacies of the Cold War: the persistence of a strategic triangle composed of China, Pakistan, and the United States. Throughout much of the Cold War, China and the United States competed to keep Pakistan within their particular sphere of influence, while Pakistan deftly took advantage of the subtle power struggle to improve its security profile vis-à-vis India. Despite persistent competition, the nations of the strategic triangle enjoyed three major convergence points: (1) the 1969–71 period, when Pakistan acted as a conduit for secret talks between Beijing and Washington, which subsequently led to mutual coordination during the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war; (2) the decade following the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979; and (3) the years following the 9/11 attacks in the United States, when global focus turned to Afghanistan and terrorism. This third convergence around terrorism is particularly salient, as Pakistan is increasingly viewed globally as both a source of terrorist activity and a victim of terrorist violence. In the long term, the strategic triangle may act as a modulating force that may prevent instability within nuclear-capable Pakistan, as well as constrain activities by certain Pakistani state organs that may be linked to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and clandestine support for militant organizations. Keywords: PakistanChinaUnited Statesstrategic trianglecold warterrorismnuclear proliferation ACKNOWLEDGMENT The author would like to thank Robert Wirsing, Mohan Malik, Tim Hoyt, David Cooper, John Cloud, and several anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this essay are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the opinions or position of the U.S. Naval War College, the U.S. Department of Defense or the U.S. Government Notes 1. 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White House, memorandum on conversation in Brent Scowcroft's office concerning progress on the LTV proposal to sell 110 A-7s to Pakistan and the problem concerning the nuclear sale by France to Pakistan, September 20, 1976, in Declassified Documents Reference System (Farmington Hills, MI: Gale, 2010). 39. U.S. Department of State, “Background Notes: Pakistan,” http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3453.htm (accessed October 24, 2011). 40. Department of Defense, memorandum of conversation between Secretary of Defense Harold Brown and Chinese Vice-Premier Geng Biao, June 10, 1980, in Declassified Documents Reference System (Farmington Hills, MI: Gale, 2010). 41. White House, memorandum of President Jimmy Carter's meeting with Chinese Premier Hua Guofeng, July 10, 1980, in Declassified Documents Reference System (Farmington Hills, MI: Gale, 2010). 42. Ibid. 43. Ibid. 44. 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Congress also gave the executive branch waiver authority for the sanctions as defined by the India-Pakistan Relief Act of 1998, which authorized the president to waive “for a period not to exceed one year upon enactment” all or part of the §102 (b) sanctions imposed on India or Pakistan related to Foreign Assistant Act and government financial assistance and other items. See Jeanne J. Grimmett, Nuclear Sanctions: Section 102(b) of the Arms Export Control Act and Its Application to India and Pakistan (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, December 9, 1999), 1. 55. K. Alan Kronstadt, Pakistan–US Relations (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, February 6, 2009), 90. 56. Pakistan was found to be in arrears in servicing its debt to the United States under both the Foreign Assistance Act and the Foreign Operations Appropriations Act. The two acts were triggered by Pakistan in September 2000 and March 2001, respectively. See Dianne E. Rennack, India and Pakistan: US Economic Sanctions (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, February 3, 2003), 4. 57. Steve Coll, “China Sets Export of Power Plant,” Washington Post, January 1, 1992, A22. 58. Daniel Williams, “U.S. Weighs Trade Curbs against China,” Washington Post, August 25, 1993, A1. Douglas Jehl, “China breaking missile pledge, U.S. aide say, “New York Times, May 6, 1993. 59. R. Jeffrey Smith and David B. Ottaway, “Spy Photos Suggest China Missile Trade,” Washington Post, July 3, 1995, A01. 60. R. Jeffrey Smith, “China Linked to Pakistani Missile Plant,” Washington Post, August 25, 1996, A01. 61. Lena H. Sun, “China: Sino-U.S. Ties ‘in Serious Jeopardy,’” Washington Post, August 28, 1993, A17. 62. John Pomfret, “China Asked Pakistan Not to Conduct Tests,” Washington Post, May 29, 1998, A36. 63. Pervez Musharraf, “9/11—Could We Have Decided Otherwise?” The Nation Online [Islamabad], June 6, 2011. 64. K. Alan Kronstadt, Major U.S. Arms Sales and Grants to Pakistan Since 2001 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, March 23, 2010), 1. 65. John W. Garver, “The Future of the Sino-Pakistan Entente Cordiale,” in South Asia in 2020: Future Strategic Balances and Alliances, ed. Michael R. Chambers (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, November 2002), 394. 66. James C. Hsiung, “The Strategic Triangle: Dynamics between China, Russia, and the United States,” Harvard International Review 26, no. 1 (Spring 2004), http://hir.harvard.edu/interventionism/the-strategic-triangle (accessed October 24, 2011). 67. David Sanger, “The World: Russia, China and the U.S.; in Terror, at Last a Common Enemy for the Big Three,” New York Times, October 28, 2001, 1; see also Zhou Rong, [“China-Pakistan Cooperation Needs Renewed Vigor”],South Asia Research Quarterly, no. 1 (2007): 25. 68. Qian Tong, “Chinese Diplomacy 2001: Surging Onward, Bright Points Abound,” Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), December 24, 2001. 69. Financial Times, “Jiang and Bush Try for a Fresh Start,” October 20, 2001, 5. 70. George W. Bush, “Commencement Address at the United States Military Academy in West Point, New York,” May 27, 2006. 71. Author discussions with Chinese officials in Beijing, July 2009. 72. Yuan Peng, “Revelations from the War in Afghanistan,” Xinwen Zoukan (Guangzhou), web edition, December 27, 2001. 73. Mohan Malik, Dragon on Terrorism: Assessing China's Tactical Gains and Strategic Losses Post–September 11 (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, 2002), 14. 74. Author's discussions with Chinese officials in Beijing, July 2009. 75. Xinhua (Beijing), “PRC FM Spokeswoman Urges Restraint Between India, Pakistan,” December 26, 2001. 76. Han Jie, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Comments Positively on Pakistani President's Visit to China,” Xinhua Hong Kong Service (Beijing), December 25, 2001. 77. Transcript of remarks by Yashwant Sinha, Indian Minister for External Affairs, Brookings Institution, CQ Transcriptions, September 10, 2002. 78. Kronstadt, Pakistan–U.S. Relations, 48. 79. China Daily (Beijing), “China Daily: Musharraf Says Pakistan Wishes to Be Transit Facility for PRC,” web edition, February 22, 2006. 80. Yang Yi, [A Strategic Concept of Chinese National Security] (Beijing: Current Affairs Publishing, 2010), 217. 81. Transcript of remarks by Robert Blake, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Federal News Service, November 15, 2010. 82. K. Alan Kronstadt, Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002–FY2011 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, June 7, 2010). 83. 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In December 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown stated that “three quarters of the most serious plots investigated by the British authorities have links to al-Qaida in Pakistan.” See Gaby Hinsliff, “Afghanistan—Brown Visit—PM Offers Pact to Stop Pakistan Exporting Terror,” The Guardian (London), December 15, 2008, 5. For an analysis of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba's increasingly global agenda, see Peter Chalk, “Lashkar-e-Taiba's Growing International Focus and Its Links with al-Qaeda,” Terrorism Monitor 8, no. 30 (July 29, 2010): 6–9. 89. Based on data provided by the National Counterterrorism Center's Worldwide Incidents Tracking System, https://wits.nctc.gov/FederalDiscoverWITS/index.do?t=Reports&Rcv=Incident&Nf=p_IncidentDate%7CGTEQ+20100101%7C%7Cp_IncidentDate%7CLTEQ+20101231&N=0(search conducted January 30, 2011). 90. 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Don Rassler, “Al-Qa’ida's Pakistan Strategy,” CTC Sentinel 2, no. 6 (June 2009): 2. 104. Chen Lijun and Yang Hong, “” [“The Present and Future Condition of China-Pakistan Electric Power Cooperation”], South Asia Studies, no. 2 (2010): 38. 105. Agence France Presse, “Timeline of Major Attacks in Pakistan,” September 4, 2007. 106. BBC Monitoring International Reports, “Twelve Killed in Attack on Chinese Convoy in Pakistan,” July 19, 2007. 107. Author's discussions with Chinese officials in China (2009 and 2010); see also Griff Witte, “Pakistan Courts China as Relations with U.S. Grow Strained,” Washington Post, June 22, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-courts-china-as-relations-with-us-grow-strained/2011/06/19/AGDCyWfH_story.html?hpid=z4 (accessed June 22, 2011). 108. Asif Ali Bhatti, “Decision to Appoint Focal Persons on Pakistan-China Ventures to Ensure Chinese Nationals’ Security,” Jang (Rawalpindi), May 27, 2009, 1–6. 109. Jinnah (Islamabad), “Separation Movement in Xinjiang and Chinese Ambassador's Warning,” April 24, 2008, 10. 110. Bruno Tertrais, “Khan's Nuclear Exports: Was There a State Strategy?” in Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War, ed. Henry D. Sokolski (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, January 2008), 16–17. 111. Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Proliferation and Terrorism, World at Risk: the Report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Proliferation and Terrorism (New York: Vintage Books, December 2008), xxiii. 112. Karen DeYoung, “New Estimates Put Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal at More than 100,” Washington Post, January 30, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004136.html?hpid=topnews (accessed January 30, 2011). 113. Jane Perlez, David E. Sanger, and Eric Schmitt, “Wary Dance with Pakistan in Nuclear World,” New York Times, December 1, 2010, A1. 114. Ibid. 115. Testimony by C. Fair, Assistant Professor, Georgetown University, House Armed Services, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Hearing on “Iraq and Afghanistan: Perspectives on U.S. Strategy, Part II,” Congressional Documents and Publications, November 5, 2009. 116. S. Paul Kapur, “Nuclear Proliferation, the Kargil Conflict, and South Asian Security,” Security Studies 13, no. 1 (Autumn 2003): 79–105.

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