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Strategic Importance of Turkmenistan for India

2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 35; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/09700161.2011.585791

1754-0054

Meena Singh Roy,

Russia and Soviet political economy

Abstract This article examines the strategic importance of Turkmenistan for India in respect of: energy resources; transit potential; and proximity to Afghanistan and Iran. It argues that India's economic potential, its liberal-democratic values, its pluralistic structure, secular fabric, military strength, strong financial, scientific and technological capabilities make it the most desirable partner for all the five Central Asian republics. However, New Delhi's policy towards Central Asia in general and Turkmenistan in particular needs to be reviewed and re-energised to manage the new set of challenges in the Af-Pak region, to ensure its energy security and to improve its connectivity with Central Asia. Notes 1. A presidential election in which Saparmurad Niyazov was the sole candidate was held on 21 June 1992; a referendum on 15 January 1994 extended his term for a further five years, to June 2002, then, in December 1999, the People's Council (Khalk Maslakhaty) made him president for life; in February 2000 Mr Niyazov announced that he would step down in 2010, and the People's Council duly approved a law to hold a presidential poll in that year. The elections to the People's Council and the local administrations (gengeshi) were held on 6 April 2003; an election to the Mejles was held on 19 December 2004. 2. Steven Sabol, 'Turkmenistan: Permanent Transition or Elusive Stability?', The China Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Vol 8(3), 2010, p. 5. 3. 'Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov became Turkmenistan President', at http://eng.gazeta.kz/art.asp?aid=86986 (accessed on 5 March 2007) 4. After his election he clearly stated, 'Everything positive that was created and fixed in the national state system will not undergo change.' Interview of the President of Turkmenistan for the Turkmenistan Magazine, atwww.turkmenistan.ru/?page_id=12&lang_id=en&elem_id=9363&type=event&layo (accessed 22 April 2007); These elections were viewed by opposition leaders in exile and other political observers as stage managed, undemocratic and illegal. Eurasia Net reports that virtually no outside journalist seeking to cover the election received a visa to do so. 5. In July 1992 at a Summit of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Helsinki, Turkmenistan's firm decision to adhere to principles of the'positive neutrality' in its foreign policy was declared. Its policy of neutrality was well received by the member states of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) in March 1995 and Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) in October 1995. 6. 'Neutrality is the Greatest Achievement of our people', Excerpts from the address by Saparmurad Niyazov to fellow countrymen on the occasion of the10th annivessary of Turkmenistan's neutrality', at http://presidentniyazov.tripod.com/id49.html (accessed on 23 March 2010). This was indeed the recognition of the unique feature and peaceful nature of the Turkmenistan's foreign policy adopted in the post cold war period by ex-Soviet Republic. Russia, India, China, US, UK, Germany, CIS countries, Arab States, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Ukraine and Spain were Co-Sponsors of the UN resolution. 7. Ibid. 8. On 15 January 2011 Berdimuhamedov said after meeting the President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso that Turkmenistan was ready to sign contract on gas supplies with European consumers. 'EC ready to help Turkmenistan to export gas to Europe', Times of Central Asia, 13(3)(652), January 2011, p. 1. 9. 'Results of Turkmenistan's Foreign Policy in 2010', press release, http://en.trend.az/search/?str=Ministry+of+Foreign+Affairs+of+Turkmenistan%Ao&m=a (accessed 27 January 2011). 10. 'President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov's Views', Business Central Asia, 2(7), 2010, p. 19. 11. Address by his Excellency Mr. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, President of Turkmenistan at the 65th Session of the UN General Assembly, athttp://www.un.org/en/mdg/Summit2010/debate/TM_en.pdf (accessed on 12 March 2011). 12. Ibid. 13. This was clearly spelled out by then President Niyazov in his address to the nation where he said that 'The peaceful people of neutral Turkmenistan are full of will and readiness to serve the noble goals of the United Nations on achieving and maintaining stability and security in the world', note 11. 14. For Turkmenistan the UN is more than just the most representative international structure. They view the organisation as a bearing mainstay of a whole contemporary system of global interaction and guarantor of preservation and maintenance of peace and balance of interests on the international arena, and of persistence of current security architecture, note 11. 15. UN General Assembly Resolution on Permanent Neutrality of Turkmenistan', At http://presidentniyazov.tripod.com/id44.html (accessed on 12 January 2011). 16. 'Turkmenistan finds dependable partnership in India', at http://turkmenistan.gov.tm/_eng/2008/08/15/turkmenistan_finds_dependable_partner_in_india.html (accessed on 9 September 2010). 17. Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009, p. 37, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484 18. 'Turkmen president sets tasks for fuel-energy sector', Excerpt from report by state-owned Turkmen TV Altyn Asyr channel on 12 August 2010 in BBC Monitoring Global Newsline – Central Asia Political, 14 August 2010; 'Turkmenistan seeks UN backing of safety of energy export routes', excerpt from report by state-owned Turkmen TV Altyn Asyr channel on 13 August 2010, in BBC Monitoring Global Newsline– Central Asia Political, 14 August 2010 in BBC Monitoring Global Newsline– Central Asia Political, 15 August 2010. 19. Report of the Group on India Hydrocarbons Vision 2025. 20. EIA, 'India', March 2009, www.eia.doe.gov/india (accessed on 14 April 2010); CIA World Fact Book, 'India, 2007, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/countrylisting.html (accessed on 14 April 2010). 21. The pipeline lengths 1,680 km and its design capacity is 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. The route is expected to begin from the Turkmen Dovletabad field through Herat and Kandahar (Afghanistan), through the Quetta region (Pakistan) and to end in the Fazlaka region on the Indo-Pakistan border. 22. 'Turkmenistan guarantees gas, Pakistan Security for trans-Afghan Pipeline', The Times of Central Asia, 12(46), (643), 18 November 2010, p. 1. 23. 'TAPI pipeline feasible,but doubts over IPI', The Hindu, 16 April 2011, p. 10. 24. Atul Aneja, 'India and Afghanistan: The way forward', The Hindu, 4 January 2011, p. 12. 25. 'Russia to back TAPI gas pipeline project in Central Asia', The Times of Central Asia, 13(4)(653), 27 January 2011, p. 2; Atul Aneja, 'India and Afghanistan: The way forward', The Hindu, 4 January 2011, p. 12; 26. 'President: Turkmenistan remains interested in building gas pipeline to building gas pipeline to India through Afghanistan', http://www.timesca.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=208800&Itemid=11 (accessed on 6 March 2010) 27. 'India, Turkmenistan ink MOU on programme of cooperation',http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/feature/india-turkmenistan-ink-mou-on-programme-of-cooperation_100249348.html (accessed on 24 August 2010). 28. The joint statement noted that'To intensify economic engagement and extend cooperation in areas in which India had gained expertise, the Indian side proposed to conduct a feasibility study on setting up a gas based fertilizer plant in Turkmenistan,' Joint Statement on the occasion of the State Visit to India of His Excellency Mr. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, President of Turkmenistan, 25 May 2010, http://www.mea.gov.in//declarestatement/2010/05/24js01.htm (accessed on 23 July 2010). 29. Note 11; 'Trans-Afghan gas pipeline project discussed in Turkmen capital' Excerpt from report by state-owned Turkmen TV Altyn Asyr channel on 4 August in BBC Monitoring Global Newsline– Central Asia Political, 6 August 2010. 30. 'India, Turkmenistan explore energy cooperation', http://www.thetribuneonline.com/commonwealth_independent_states.htm (accessed on 23 August 2010). 31. IRIS News Digest, 6 January 2007, at http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre. 32. Turkmenistan situated in Central Asia, north of Kopet Dagh mountains between Caspian Sea in West and Amu Darya in the east, has an area of 488,100 square kms and stretches 650 kms from north to south and 1100km from east to west. 33. M. Annanepesov and M. Moshev, 'Turkmenistan', in Madhavan K. Palat and Anara Tabyshalieva, History of Civilizations of Central Asia, VI, 2005, pp. 305–310; Amiya Chandra, 'Turkmen-India Cooperation for Peace and Development' Strategic Analysis, 19(9), 1996, p. 1231; P. Stobdan, 'Indo-Turkmenistan Relations in Perspective', Strategic Analysis, 19(9), 1996, pp. 1253–1255. 34. Ministry of External Affairs Reports (Government of India), 1995–96, p. 32–33. 35. Ministry of External Affairs Reports (Government of India), 1996–97, p. 32. 36. National Report of I.R.Iran on the latest measures taken in line with promotion of multimodal Transport, Iran Ministry of Roads and Transportation, General Directorate of International Affairs, November 2004.; A. Spector, 'The North-South Transport Corridor', http://www.brook.edu/printme.wbs?page=/pagedefs/e9e50344b3c7ff3b4670f6410a14146 (accessed 14 September 2009) 37. http://www.instc.org/Main.asp (accessed 15 September 2009). 38. Amiya Chandra, 'Turkmen-India Cooperation for Peace and Development' Strategic Analysis, XIX(9), 1996, pp. 1250–51. 39. He said that the'creation of modern extensive infrastructure of railway and highway services and network of communication' will provide greater'impetus to a successful integration of regional countries into the process of the global economic development.'; note 11. 40. Briefing by foreign secretary, Shri, Shivshankar Menon on visit of President Ahmdinejad of Iran to India, 29 April 2008, http://meaindia.nic.in/(accessed 20 July 2008). 41. Sandeep Dikshit, 'India, Iran discuss' regional solution' in Afghanistan', The Hindu, 7 August 2010. 42. Steven Sabol, 'Turkmenistan: Permanent Transition or Elusive Stability?', China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, 8(3), 2010, pp. 19. 43. Note 11. 44. 'Turkmenistan Proposes railway construction project', The Times of Central Asia, 12(39)(636), 30 September 2010, p. 6. 45. 'Turkmenistan helps Afghanistan to integrate into World Economic System', The Times of Central Asia, 12(46)(646), 9 December 2010, p. 7. 46. Address by his Excellency Mr. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov President of Turkmenistan at the 65th Session of the UN General Assembly, athttp://www.un.org/en/mdg/Summit2010/debate/TM_en.pdf (accessed on 12 March 2011). 47. Joint Communique of Presidents of Turkmenistan and Iran, July 2006, http://presidentniyazov.tripod.com/id62.html (accessed on 12 September 2010); Steven Sabol, 'Turkmenistan: Permanent Transition or Elusive Stability?', pp. 19–20. 48. Text of Joint Statement in English by the President the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Tajikistan posted on state-owned Tajik news agency Khovar website on 21 August 2010; Valdmir, in BBC Monitoring Global Newsline– Central Asia Political, 23 August 2010; Radyuhin, 'Changing face of Russia–Pakistan ties', The Hindu, 9 September 2010, p. 10. 49. Vladimir Radyuhin, 'Changing face of Russia–Pakistan ties', The Hindu, 9 September 2010, p. 10. 50. Vladimir Radyuhin,'Russian copters for Afghanistan', The Hindu, 16 April 2011, p. 13. 51. 'Russia to mull stake in Tajik, Afghan, Pakistani power project', Interfax News Agency, Moscow, 18 August 2010, in BBC Monitoring Global Newsline–Central Asia Political, 19 August 2010. 52. It has been pointed out that'the Sochi summit also dimmed India's hopes of gaining a strategic foothold in Tajikistan. India and Russia had planned to jointly use the Ayni airfield, which India helped to renovate, but Indian presence there looks doubtful now in the context of the emerging Russia-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Tajikistan axis. India will have, of course, remain Russia's close partner, but it will have to learn to live with the new Russia-Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken in its stride India's entanglement with the US.' Vladimir Radyuhin,'Changing face of Russia–Pakistan ties', The Hindu, 9 September 2010, p. 10. 53. Meena Singh Roy, 'Afghanistan and Regional Strategies: The India Factor', in M. Laruelle, J.-F. Huchet, S. Peyrous, and B. Balci (eds), China and India in Central Asia. A new'Great Game'?, New York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2010, pp. 61–80. 54. Raja Karthikeya Gundu and Teresita C. Schaffer, 'India and Pakistan in Afghanistan : Hostile Sports', South Asia Monitor, 117, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, April 3, 2008, at http://CSIS.org/files/media/CSIS/pubs/sam117.pdf. 55. Brahma Chellaney, 'Surge,Bribe and Run', The Times of India, 3 February 2010. 56. Kanti Bajpai, 'Exit Is A Smarter Strategy', Times of India, 13 September 2010, pp. 16. 57. During his visit to India in 2006, Emomali S. Rahmonov, president of the Tajikistan acknowledged the role of India in Central Asia. He said:'In the political map of the world, India is emerging as a world power. We witness the fast rate of development of economy of your country; we highly value the achievements of your experts in the field of high technologies, especially Information Technology. We admire, also, India's ancient and rich history, culture and art…', Inaugural Address by H E Emomali S. Rahmonov, President of Republic of Tajikistan, at the International Seminar organised by the India Central Asia Foundation and Indian Council of World Affairs on 8 August 2006, New Delhi. 58. R.P. Kaushik, 'Indo-Turkmenistan Relations: An Overview', in K Santhanam & Ramakant Dwivedi (ed.), India-Turkmenistan Relations, Delhi, Anamaya Publishers, 2007, p. 2. 59. At http://turkmenistan.gov.tm/_eng/2008/04/07/vice_president_of_india_visits_turkmenistan.html (accessed 9 September 2009); 'The Talks between President of Turkmenistan and Vice President of India in Ashgabat', http://turkmenistan.gov.tm/_eng/2008/04/07/the_talks_between_president_of_turkmenistan_and_vice_president_of_india_in_ashgabat.html (accessed 9 September 2009). 60. Joint Statement on the occasion of the State Visit to India of His Excellency Mr. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, President of Turkmenistan, at http://www.mea.gov.in//declarestatement/2010/05/24js01.htm, (accessed on 23 July 2010). 61. 'Turkmenistan plans massive infrastructure investment', Business Central Asia, 2(7), 2010, pp. 34.