Moving into a Post-Western World
2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 34; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/0163660x.2011.562080
ISSN1530-9177
Autores Tópico(s)International Relations and Foreign Policy
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Charles Krauthammer, "The Unipolar Moment," Foreign Affairs 70, no. 1 (1990/91): pp. 23–33. After 2001, Krauthammer envisioned a "unipolar era" of "thirty to forty years"; see Krauthammer, "The Unipolar Moment Revisited," The National Interest 70 (Winter 2002–2003): p. 17. Krauthammer's most incisive critic was Christopher Layne, "The Unipolar Illusion: Why New Great Powers Will Rise," International Security 17, no. 4 (Spring 1993): pp. 5–51. Layne, too, revised his conclusions when early U.S. successes in Afghanistan and Iraq seemed to delay the rise of new powers; see Layne, "The Unipolar Illusion Revisited," International Security 31, no. 2 (Fall 2006): pp. 7–41. 2. George Liska, Imperial America: The International Politics of Primacy (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1967). Also, Simon Serfaty, The Vital Partnership: Power and Order (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2005), pp. 17ff. 3. The National Intelligence Council has lost its early confidence about America's status as the world's dominant power, which it now describes as (only) the strongest of many. National Intelligence Council, "Mapping the Global Future," December 2004, http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf; and National Intelligence Council, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," November 2008, http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf. 4. Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2009), p. 1. 5. Richard Haass, "The Age of Nonpolarity," Foreign Affairs 87, no. 3 (May/June 2008): pp. 44–56; also see Niall Ferguson, "A World Without Power," Foreign Policy, July 1, 2004, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2004/07/01/a_world_without_power?page=0,2. 6. Giovanni Grevi, "The interpolar world: a new scenario," Occasional Paper, no. 79 (Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies, June 2009), http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/op79.pdf. 7. George H.W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (New York: Vintage Books, 1999), pp. 563–566. 8. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power (Basic Books, 1990); The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002); and Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004). 9. Michael Mandelbaum, The Frugal Superpower: America's Global Leadership in a Cash-Strapped Era (New York: PublicAffairs, 2010). 10. Vivien A. Schmidt, "Re-Envisioning the European Union: Identity, Democracy, Economy," Journal of Common Market Studies 47 Annual Review (2009): pp. 17–42, http://people.bu.edu/vschmidt/documents/JCMSAnnualReview1ReenvisioningEUeconomicdemocracyidentity.pdf; Andrew Moravcsik, "Europe: The Quiet Superpower," French Politics 7, no. 3/4 (September-December 2009): pp. 403–422, http://www.princeton.edu/~amoravcs/library/french_politics.pdf. 11. Simon Serfaty, "The EU's Future," The International Economy (Fall 2010): pp. 54–58, 71. 12. Philip Gordon, interview in Le Figaro, November 24, 2010. 13. Bobo Lo, Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics (Baltimore: Brookings Institution Press, 2008); Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Geostrategic Triad: Living with China, Europe, and Russia (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2001), pp. 58ff; Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich, Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian Federation (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2001), http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1273.pdf. 14. In early 2008, Goldman Sachs predicted that China's GDP would surpass the United States' by 2029, a time frame that the Economic Intelligence Unit (April 29, 2009) has reduced to 2021. See Christopher Layne, "The Waning of U.S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality?: A Review Essay," International Security 34, no. 1 (Summer 2009): p. 163. 15. Bobo Lo, China and the global financial crisis (London: Centre for European Reform, April 2010), p. 10, http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/essay_974.pdf; also, David M. Lampton, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money, and Minds (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2008). 16. Matt Isler, "Graying Panda, Shrinking Dragon: The Impact of Chinese Demographic Changes on Northeast Asian Security," JFQ 55 (4th quarter 2009): pp. 101–03, http://ndupress.ndu.edu/lib/images/jfq-55/16.pdf; Richard Jackson, Keisuke Nakashima, and Neil Howe, with contributions by Jiangong Zhou, China's Long March to Retirement Reform: The Graying of the Middle Kingdom Revisited (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2009), http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090422_gai_chinareport_en.pdf; also C. Fred Bergsten, Bates Gill, et al., China: The Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know about the Emerging Superpower (New York: PublicAffairs, 2006). 17. Thomas Lum et al., "China's Foreign Aid Activities in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia," CRS Report for Congress, renowned R40361, February 25, 2009, p. 14, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40361.pdf. 18. Jagdish Bhagwati, "India's Reform and Growth Have Lifted All Boats," Financial Times, December 1, 2010, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e9f0d3b8-fcba-11df-bfdd-00144feab49a.html; Harsh Pant, Indian Foreign Policy in a Unipolar World (Routledge India, 2009). 19. Amy Kazmin, "States of Desire," Financial Times, April 20, 2010, http://cachef.ft.com/cms/s/0/e096a5a6-4caa-11df-9977-00144feab49a.html. 20. The White House, "Remarks by the President and the First Lady in Town Hall with Students in Mumbai, India," November 7, 2010, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/11/07/remarks-president-and-first-lady-town-hall-with-students-mumbai-india; Barack Obama, "Remarks by the President to the Joint Session of the Indian Parliament in New Delhi, India" (speech, New Delhi, November 8, 2010), http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/11/08/remarks-president-joint-session-indian-parliament-new-delhi-india. 21. Michael J. Green, "Japan's Confused Revolution," The Washington Quarterly 33, no 1 (January 2010): pp. 3–19, http://www.twq.com/10january/docs/10jan_Green.pdf; Fred Hiatt, "Does Japan Still Matter?" The Washington Post, December 11, 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/10/AR2009121003162.html. 22. "U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality," Independent Task Force Report, no. 60 (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2008); also, Sean W. Burges, Brazil's Foreign Policy after the Cold War (University Press of Florida, 2009). 23. RESDAL, "A Comparative Atlas of Defence in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010 Edition," http://www.resdal.org/atlas/atlas-completo2010-ingles.pdf; also, Carlos Gustavo Poggio Teixeira, "Brazil and the United States: Fading Interdependence," Orbis 55, no. 1 (Winter 2011): pp. 147–162. 24. Katinka Barysch, "Can Turkey combine EU accession and regional leadership?" Centre for European Reform, January 2010, http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/pb_barysch_turkey_25jan10.pdf; F. Stephen Larrabee, Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopolitical Change (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010), http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG899.pdf. 25. For example, Gerry J. Simpson, Great Powers and Outlaw States: Unequal Sovereigns in the International Legal Order (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004), pp. 17ff. 26. In mid-1972, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote about "new influentials" and a "2 ½+x+y+z Powers World" in "The Balance of Power Delusion," Foreign Policy 7 (Summer 1972), pp. 54–59. China was then viewed as the incomplete (half) power. What seems to be emerging today is a "5 ½+x+y+z+… Powers World" with Japan as the half power, and much uncertainty left over the number and identity of the new influentials. 27. Zbigniew Brzezinski, "The Group of Two that could change the world," Financial Times, January 13, 2009, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d99369b8-e178-11dd-afa0-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz1B1pNJMSB. 28. The term has been used to describe U.S. relations with the Americas. See Abraham Lowenthal, Theodore Piccone, and Lawrence Whitehead, eds., The Obama Administration and the Americas: Agenda for Change (Baltimore: Brookings Institution Press, 2009). 29. Neither the political crisis over Iraq in 2003–2005, nor the economic crisis of 2008–2010, could slow down the Euro-Atlantic economic juggernaut. By comparison, the United States dis-invested from China in 2008 and 2009 relative to the previous years. See Daniel Hamilton and Joseph Quinlan, The Transatlantic Economy 2010 (Baltimore: Brookings Institution Press, 2010). 30. The German Marshall Fund, Transatlantic Trends: Key Findings 2010, http://www.gmfus.org/trends/doc/2010_English_Key.pdf; and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Constrained Internationalism: Adapting to New Realities: Results of a 2010 National Survey of American Public Opinion, http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/UserFiles/File/POS_Topline%20Reports/POS%202010/Global%20Views%202010.pdf. 31. Geoffrey Kemp, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia's Looming Presence in the Middle East (Baltimore: Brookings Institution Press, 2010). 32. Yann Dompierre, "A fraught political relationship," in "China and India: Rivals Always, Partners Sometimes," European Council on Foreign Relations, November 2009, p. 3, http://ecfr.eu/page/-/china/China%20Analysis_China%20and%20India_Rivals%20Always_Partners%20Sometimes_november2009.pdf; Directorate General for Trade of the European Commission, "EU Bilateral Trade and Trade with the World, January 18, 2011, http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113366.pdf. 33. Bertelsmann Stiftung, "World Powers in the 21st Century: The Results of a Representative Survey in Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States," June 2, 2006, p. 17, http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/bst/en/media/xcms_bst_dms_19189_19190_2.pdf; also, Bruce Stokes, "Friendship, Warily," National Journal, February 13, 2010, pp. 30–36, http://209.200.80.89/doc/Stokes-Friendship-Warily.pdf; "Global Views of United States Improve While Other Countries Decline," BBC World Service Poll, April 18, 2010, http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbc2010_countries/. 34. James Lamont and Fabian Bokhari, "China signs $35bn in deals with Pakistan," Financial Times, December 20, 2010, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6496f902-0b44-11e0-a313-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1B1pNJMSB. 35. Andrew Scheineson, "The Shanghai Cooperation Organization," Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounders, March 24, 2009, http://www.cfr.org/publication/10883/shanghai_cooperation_organization.htm. 36. Charles Burton Marshall, The Exercise of Sovereignty: Papers on Foreign Policy (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1965), pp. 58–59; Simon Serfaty, "The United States and Europe in a Multipolar World," in A Recast Partnership? Institutional Dimensions of Transatlantic Relations, ed. Simon Serfaty (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2008): pp. 3–28. 37. Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation: My Years at the State Department (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1969), p. xvii. Additional informationNotes on contributorsSimon SerfatySimon Serfaty is the first holder of the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy at CSIS. Dr. Serfaty is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy with the Graduate Programs in International Studies at Old Dominion University
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