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Identification of prognostic subgroups among patients with metastatic ‘IGCCCG poor-prognosis’ germ-cell cancer: An explorative analysis using cart modeling

2000; Elsevier BV; Volume: 11; Issue: 9 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1023/a

1569-8041

Christian Kollmannsberger, Craig R. Nichols, Christoph Meisner, Frank Mayer, Lothar Kanz, Carsten Bokemeyer,

Sarcoma Diagnosis and Treatment

The IGCCCG classification has identified three prognostic groups of patients with metastatic germ-cell tumors. 'Poor prognosis' is based on primary tumor localization, the presence of visceral metastases, and/or high tumor-marker levels. The overall survival rate of these patients is about 45%-55%. The present analysis attempts to identify subsets of patients with a more or less favorable outcome among the 'poor-prognosis' group.We retrospectively explored prognostic subgroups in 332 patients with 'IGCCCG' poor-risk GCT using the classification-and-regression-tree model (CART). The following variables were included: primary tumor localization, presence of visceral or lung metastases, presence of an abdominal tumor, number of metastatic sites, serum levels of beta-HCG, AFP and LDH. All patients had been treated with cisplatin-etoposide-based chemotherapy within controlled clinical trials between 1984 and 1997.gonadal/retroperitoneal (G/R) primary tumor 260 patients (78%), mediastinal primary tumor 72 patients (22%), visceral metastases 205 patients (62%) including 33 patients with CNS metastases, lung metastases 247 patients (74%), abdominal tumor 241 patients (72%), elevated AFP, beta-HCG or LDH levels 235 (71%), 253 (76%) and 275 (83%) of patients, respectively. Patients with primary mediastinal disease plus lung metastases exhibited the worst two-year PFS (28%), whereas patients with a primary G/R tumor and without visceral metastases showed the highest chance of two-year PFS (75%). The latter group of patients without visceral metastases and with a primary G/R tumor also had the most favourable two-year OS (84%). In contrast, patients with a primary mediastinal tumor and visceral metastases displayed the worst two-year OS (49%).Different prognostic subsets of patients can be identified among the group of 'poor-prognosis' GCT patients. The CART analysis model results in a hierarchy of prognostic factors which may allow to more precisely estimate the individual patient's prognosis. Identifying subgroups of 'very poor-prognosis' among 'poor-prognosis' patients may allow to test for new treatment strategies in selected subgroups.