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Interval-Valued Reliability Analysis of Multi-State Systems

2011; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Volume: 60; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1109/tr.2010.2103670

1558-1721

Chunyang Li, Xun Chen, Xiao-shan Yi, Junyong Tao,

Risk and Safety Analysis

In previous studies that analyzed the reliability of multi-state systems, the precise values of the state performance levels and state probabilities of multi-state components were required. In many cases, however, there are insufficient data to obtain the state probabilities of components precisely. A method is proposed in this paper to analyze the reliability of multi-state systems when the available data of components are insufficient. Based on the Bayesian approach and the imprecise Dirichlet model, the interval-valued state probabilities of components are obtained instead of precise values. The interval universal generating function is developed, and the corresponding operators are defined to estimate the interval-valued reliability of multi-state systems. Affine arithmetic is used to improve the interval-valued reliability. A numerical example illustrates the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method is efficient when state performance levels and/or state probabilities of components are uncertain and/or imprecise.