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The Future of the Brazilian Amazon

2001; American Association for the Advancement of Science; Volume: 291; Issue: 5503 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1126/science.291.5503.438

1095-9203

William F. Laurance, Mark A. Cochrane, Scott Bergen, Philip M. Fearnside, Patricia Delamônica, Christopher Barber, Sammya D’Angelo, Tito Lívio do Nascimento Fernandes,

Soil and Land Suitability Analysis

The Brazilian Amazon is currently experiencing the world9s highest absolute rate of forest destruction and is likely to suffer even greater degradation in the future because of government plans to invest $40 billion from 2000 to 2007 in dozens of major new highways and infrastructure projects. We developed two computer models that integrate spatial data on deforestation, logging, mining, highways and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wildfires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests by the year 2020. Both models suggest that the region9s forests will be drastically altered by current development schemes and land-use trends over the next 20 years.