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System Reliability Assessment Method for Wind Power Integration

2008; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Volume: 23; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1109/tpwrs.2008.926090

1558-0679

François Vallée, Jacques Lobry, Olivier Deblecker,

Wind and Air Flow Studies

Wind power penetration is expected to be largely increased in the near future. Nevertheless, due to the high variability of wind, the increase of the installed capacity in wind energy could sometimes lead to a stopping of nonadjustable power plants if the planning of those units was still decided without considering a realistic estimation of the available wind potential. In that way, and as it is illusory to imagine that all the installed wind capacity will always be produced, this article proposes a new method, based on a discrete convolution process, to compute a two-state probabilistic model for wind generation and to define, so, an equivalent capacity for global wind production in order to introduce it in the predictive peak load covering process. This global model is, in fact, based on the convolution between each single wind park multistates histograms and permits to compute accurate equivalent capacity for the wind production of an entire country.