Causality, Predictability and Monetary Targets in South Africa
1991; Wiley; Volume: 59; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1111/j.1813-6982.1991.tb01319.x
ISSN1813-6982
Autores Tópico(s)Global Financial Crisis and Policies
ResumoSouth African Journal of EconomicsVolume 59, Issue 4 p. 229-241 Causality, Predictability and Monetary Targets in South Africa A.S. HURN, A.S. HURN Department of Political Economy, University of Glasgow. The author wishes to thank Anthony S. Courakis of Brasenose College, Oxford, and also his colleagues in Glasgow, particularly Anton Muscatelli and Hassan Molana for useful discussions on causality. He also wishes to thank three anonymous referees for useful comments on an earlier draft. All errors remain the responsibility of the author.Search for more papers by this author A.S. HURN, A.S. HURN Department of Political Economy, University of Glasgow. The author wishes to thank Anthony S. Courakis of Brasenose College, Oxford, and also his colleagues in Glasgow, particularly Anton Muscatelli and Hassan Molana for useful discussions on causality. He also wishes to thank three anonymous referees for useful comments on an earlier draft. All errors remain the responsibility of the author.Search for more papers by this author First published: December 1991 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.1991.tb01319.xCitations: 1AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat References BASMANN, R.L. (1963). The causal interpretation of non-triangular systems of economic relations, Econometrica, 31: 439–448. 10.2307/1909983 Web of Science®Google Scholar BORIO, C.E.V. (1988). On the choice of proximate targets for stabilisation policy, Greek Economic Review, 10: 241–286. Google Scholar BRAINARD, W.C. and TOBIN, J. (1968). Pitfalls in financial model building, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 58: 99–122. Web of Science®Google Scholar BRYANT, R.C. (1980). Money and Monetary Policy in Interdependent Nations, the Brookings Institution, Washington , D.C. Google Scholar BUTTER, W.H. (1981). The superiority of contingent rules over fixed rules in models with rational expectations, Economic Journal, 91: 647–668. 10.2307/2232830 Web of Science®Google Scholar BUNGS, M. (1959). Causality: The Place of the Causal Principle in Modern Science, Harvard University Press, Cambridge , Mass . Google Scholar COURAKIS, A.S. (1981). Monetary targets: conceptual antecedents and recent policies in the U.S., U.K. and West Germany, in A.S. Courakis (ed.), Inflation, Depression and Economic Policy in the West, Alexandrine Press, London . Web of Science®Google Scholar CUDDINGTON, J.T. (1981). Money, income and causality: the U.K. experience, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 13: 342–351. 10.2307/1991903 Web of Science®Google Scholar CURRIE, D.A. (1981). Some long run features of dynamic time series models, Economic journal, 91: 704–715. 10.2307/2232834 Web of Science®Google Scholar DE KOCK COMMISSION REPORT (Rp 70/1984). Commission of Inquiry into the Monetary System and Monetary Policy in South Africa, Government Printer, Pretoria . Google Scholar DYREYES, F.R., STARLEAF, D.R. and WANG, G.H. (1980). Tests of the direction of causality between money and income in six countries, Southern Economic journal, 47: 477–487. 10.2307/1057537 Web of Science®Google Scholar ENGLE, R.F., HENDRY, D.F. and RICHARD, J.F. (1983). Exogeneity, Econometrica, 51: 277–304. 10.2307/1911990 Web of Science®Google Scholar FEIGE, E.L. and PEARCE, D.K. (1976). Economically rational expectations: are innovations in the rate of inflation independent of innovations in measures of monetary and fiscal policy, Journal of Political Economy, 84: 499–520. 10.1086/260456 Web of Science®Google Scholar FEIGE, E.L. and PEARCE, D.K. (1979). The causal relationship between money -and income: some caveates for time series analysis, Review of Economics and Statistics, 61: 521–533. 10.2307/1935784 Web of Science®Google Scholar FEIGL, H. (1953). Notes on causality, in H. Feigl and M. Brodbeck (eds.), Readings in the Philosophy of Science, Appleton-Century-Crofts, New York . Google Scholar FRIEDMAN, B.M. (1977). The inefficiency of short run monetary targets, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 293–335. 10.2307/2534405 Google Scholar GEWEKE, J. (1978). Testing the exogeneity specification in the complete dynamic simultaneous equation model, Journal of Econometrics, 7: 163–185. 10.1016/0304-4076(78)90067-2 Google Scholar GEWEKE, J. (1984). Inference and causality in economic time series models, in Z. Griliches and M.D. Intriligator (eds.) Handbook of Econometrics, 2, North-Holland, Amsterdam . 10.1016/S1573-4412(84)02011-0 Google Scholar GEWEKE, J., MEESE, J.R. and DENT, W. (1983). Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems: analytic results and experimental evidence, Journal of Econometrics, 21: 161–194. 10.1016/0304-4076(83)90012-X Web of Science®Google Scholar GRANGER, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrica, 37: 424–438. 10.2307/1912791 Web of Science®Google Scholar HENDRY, D.F., PAGAN, A.R. and SARGAN, J.D. (1984). Dynamic specification, in Z. Griliches and M.D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, 2, North-Holland, Amsterdam . Google Scholar HICKS, J.R. (1979). Causality in Economics, Basil Blackwell, Oxford . Google Scholar HSIAO, C. (1981). Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7: 85–106. 10.1016/0304-3932(81)90053-2 Web of Science®Google Scholar HURN, A.S. (1990). Private Behaviour. Economic Activity and Stabilisation Policy in South Africa, Unpublished DPhil. Thesis, University of Oxford. Google Scholar KOOPIVIANS, T.C. (1947). Measurement without theory, Review of Economics and Statistics, reprinted in R.A. Gordon and L.R. Klein (eds.) Readings in Business Cycles, George Allen and Unwin, London , 1966: 186–203. Google Scholar MYATT, A. (1986). Money supply endogeneity: an empirical test for the United States: 1954-84, Journal of Economic Issues, 20: 133–144. 10.1080/00213624.1986.11504475 Web of Science®Google Scholar SARGENT, T.J. and WALLACE, N. (1973). Rational expectations and the dynamics of hyperinflations, International Economic Review, 14: 328–350. 10.2307/2525924 Google Scholar SCHWERT, G.W. (1978). Tests of causality: the message in the innovations, Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 10: 55–96. 10.1016/0167-2231(79)90003-4 Web of Science®Google Scholar SHEEHAN, R.G. (1983). Money-income causality: results for six countries, Journal of Macro-economics, 1: 473–494. 10.1016/0164-0704(83)90035-6 Web of Science®Google Scholar Sims, C.A. (1972). Money, income and causality, American Economic Review, 62: 506–517. Google Scholar Sims, C.A. (1977). Exogeneity and causal ordering in macroeconomic models, in C.A. Sims (ed.), New Methods in Business Cycle Research: Proceedings from a Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minnesota . Web of Science®Google Scholar TAVLAS, G.S. (1989). The demand for money in South Africa: a test of the buffer stock model, 1989 SAJE v57 (1) p 1–13. Google Scholar TOBIN, J. (1970). Post hoc ergo propter hoc? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84: 302–324. 10.2307/1883016 Web of Science®Google Scholar VAN DER MERWE, E.J. and TERBLANCHE, S. (1986). The definition of new monetary aggregates for South Africa, South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin, March, Pretoria . Google Scholar WIENER, N. (1956). The theory of prediction, in E.F. Beckenback (ed.), Modern Mathematics for Engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York . Google Scholar WILLIAMS, D., GOODHART, C.A.E. and GOWLAND, D.H. (1976). Money and causality: the U.K. experience, American Economic Review, 66: 417–423. Web of Science®Google Scholar ZELLNER, A. (1979). Causality in econometrics, Carnegie-Rochester Conference series on Public Policy, 10: 9–54. 10.1016/0167-2231(79)90002-2 Web of Science®Google Scholar Citing Literature Volume59, Issue4December 1991Pages 229-241 ReferencesRelatedInformation
Referência(s)