Using Prediction Market Data to Illustrate Undergraduate Probability
2013; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 120; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês
10.4169/amer.math.monthly.120.07.583
ISSN1930-0972
Autores Tópico(s)Spreadsheets and End-User Computing
ResumoAbstractAbstractPrediction markets provide a rare setting, where results of mathematical probability theory can be related to events of real-world interest and where theory can be compared to data. The paper discusses two simple mathematical results—the halftime price principle and the serious candidates principle—and corresponding data from baseball and the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination race. Additional informationNotes on contributorsDavid J. AldousDAVID ALDOUS received his Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge in 1977, and since 1979 has been at U.C. Berkeley. After a career doing technical research within mathematical probability, he is now interested in relating mathematics to real-world data. Outside of work he drinks lattes, reads science fiction and The Economist, drinks wine, walks the dog, and wastes too much time playing Civilization III.
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