Ground-Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Part II: Ground-Motion Estimates for the 1906 Earthquake and Scenario Events
2008; Seismological Society of America; Volume: 98; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1785/0120060410
ISSN1943-3573
AutoresB. Aagaard, Thomas M. Brocher, D. Dolenc, D. S. Dreger, Robert Graves, Stephen C. Harmsen, Stephen Hartzell, Stuart Larsen, K. McCandless, Stefan Nilsson, N. Anders Petersson, Arthur Rodgers, Björn Sjögreen, Mary Lou Zoback,
Tópico(s)Seismic Waves and Analysis
ResumoResearch Article| April 01, 2008 Ground-Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Part II: Ground-Motion Estimates for the 1906 Earthquake and Scenario Events Brad T. Aagaard; Brad T. Aagaard U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Thomas M. Brocher; Thomas M. Brocher U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar David Dolenc; David Dolenc Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, 215 McCone Hall, Berkeley, California 94720 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Douglas Dreger; Douglas Dreger Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, 215 McCone Hall, Berkeley, California 94720 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Robert W. Graves; Robert W. Graves URS Corporation, 566 El Dorado St., Pasadena, California 91101 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Stephen Harmsen; Stephen Harmsen U.S. Geological Survey, MS966, P.O. Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Stephen Hartzell; Stephen Hartzell U.S. Geological Survey, MS966, P.O. Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Shawn Larsen; Shawn Larsen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-103, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kathleen McCandless; Kathleen McCandless Computer Applications and Research Department, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Stefan Nilsson; Stefan Nilsson Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar N. Anders Petersson; N. Anders Petersson Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Arthur Rodgers; Arthur Rodgers Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Department, Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-205, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Björn Sjögreen; Björn Sjögreen Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Mary Lou Zoback Mary Lou Zoback U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Brad T. Aagaard U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025 Thomas M. Brocher U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025 David Dolenc Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, 215 McCone Hall, Berkeley, California 94720 Douglas Dreger Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, 215 McCone Hall, Berkeley, California 94720 Robert W. Graves URS Corporation, 566 El Dorado St., Pasadena, California 91101 Stephen Harmsen U.S. Geological Survey, MS966, P.O. Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 Stephen Hartzell U.S. Geological Survey, MS966, P.O. Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 Shawn Larsen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-103, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Kathleen McCandless Computer Applications and Research Department, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Stefan Nilsson Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 N. Anders Petersson Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Arthur Rodgers Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Department, Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-205, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Björn Sjögreen Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808 Mary Lou Zoback U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025 Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-3573 Print ISSN: 0037-1106 Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2008) 98 (2): 1012–1046. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060410 Article history First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation Brad T. Aagaard, Thomas M. Brocher, David Dolenc, Douglas Dreger, Robert W. Graves, Stephen Harmsen, Stephen Hartzell, Shawn Larsen, Kathleen McCandless, Stefan Nilsson, N. Anders Petersson, Arthur Rodgers, Björn Sjögreen, Mary Lou Zoback; Ground-Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Part II: Ground-Motion Estimates for the 1906 Earthquake and Scenario Events. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2008;; 98 (2): 1012–1046. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060410 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract We estimate the ground motions produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1–0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.
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