A North Korean Spring?
2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 35; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/0163660x.2012.641728
ISSN1530-9177
AutoresD. Victor, Nicholas D. Anderson,
Tópico(s)Korean Peninsula Historical and Political Studies
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Daniel Byman and Jennifer Lind, “Pyongyang's Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea,” International Security 35, no. 1 (Summer 2010): pp. 44–74, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Pyongyangs_Survival_Strategy.pdf 2. See, for example, on development, or wealth accumulation, Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel, “How Development Leads to Democracy: What We Know about Modernization,” Foreign Affairs 88, no. 2 (March/April 2009): pp. 33–41; on growth rates, Samuel Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, 2nd ed. (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006), pp. 53–56; on demography, Ellen Knickmeyer, “The Arab World's Youth Army,” Foreign Policy, January 27, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/27/the_arab_world_s_youth_army;andonregimetype, Paul R. Pillar, “How Does a Ruler Stay in Power?” The National Interest, April 7, 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/autocracy/how-does-ruler-stay-power-5133. 3. The “development gap” is a social phenomenon first described by Samuel Huntington in which the overall economy begins to outpace the political institutions in society, leading to a “gap” and, potentially, to unrest. See Huntington, pp. 53–56. 4. Bank of Korea, BOK.or.kr, http://ecos.bok.or.kr/. 5. “World Bank Open Data,” Worldbank.org, http://data.worldbank.org/. 6. “The United Nations Development Programme,” UNDP.org, http://hdr.undp.org/en/. 7. Stephanie Schwartz, “Youth and the ‘Arab Spring’,” U.S. Institute of Peace, April 28, 2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/youth-and-the-arab-spring; Knickmeyer, “The Arab World's Youth Army”; Bobby Ghosh, “Rage, Rap and Revolution: Inside the Arab Youth Quake,” Time.com, February 17, 2011, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2049808,00.html. 8. The CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html. 9. The next-closest military service terms are in Vietnam (24–48 months), Chad (36 months), Egypt (12–36 months), and Venezuela (30 months). See https://www.cia.gov/; and International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 2011 (London: 2011). 10. The Military Balance, p. 249. 11. “Orascom Signs Mobile Phone Deal with North Korea,” New York Times, November 15, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/15/technology/15iht-orascom.4.18698081.html. 12. Bill Powell, “The Capitalist Who Loves North Korea,” CNNMoney, September 15, 2009, http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/14/magazines/fortune/pyongyang_university_north_korea.fortune/index.htm. 13. See http://www.internetworldstats.com/africa.htm#tz. 14. See “Freedom in the World 2011,” Freedom House, http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=594. 15. See “Democracy Index 2010: Democracy in Retreat,” Economist Intelligence Unit, http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_web.pdf. 16. “World Governance Indicators,” The World Bank, http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp; “Freedom of the Press 2011,” Freedom House, http://freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=668. 17. Yossi Shain, “The Mexican-American Diaspora's Impact on Mexico,” Political Science Quarterly 114, no. 4 (Winter 1999–2000): pp. 661–691. 18. “Arab States Look to Diaspora as They Rebuild,” Albawaba.com, October 16, 2011, http://www.albawaba.com/arab-states-look-diaspora-they-rebuild-397074. 19. Survey of 297 NK defectors (Seoul: Institute for Peace and Unification studies, Seoul National University, July 24, 2008); cited in Kyung-Ae Park, “People's Exit, Regime Stability, and North Korean Diplomacy,” in New Challenges of North Korean Foreign Policy, ed. Kyung-Ae Park (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2009), p. 52. 20. Inside North Korea, directed by Peter Yost, National Geographic Television, 2007. 21. Andrew Salmon, “North Koreans Escape to Freedom but Still Hold Kim Jong Il Dear,” The Times of London, May 29, 2009; cited in New Challenges of North Korean Foreign Policy, p. 52. 22. “Number of N. Korean Defectors in S. Korea Tops 21,000,” Yonhap News, May 14, 2011, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2011/05/14/0200000000AEN20110514001100320.HTML; “Settlement Support for Dislocated North Koreans,” Republic of Korea Ministry of Unification, 2011, http://eng.unikorea.go.kr/eng/default.jsp?pgname=AFFhumanitarian_settlement. 23. Kyung-Ae Park, “People's Exit in North Korea: New Threat to Regime Stability?” Pacific Focus 25, no. 2 (August 2010): pp. 257–275. 24. Park Hyeong Jung, “How Can we Move North Korea?” unpublished paper for the 4th Korea Institute for National Unification-U.S. Institute of Peace Washington Workshop, March 10, 2011; and “N.K. Tightens IT Gadget Control to Block Outside Info,” Korea Herald, April 1, 2011, http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20110401000772. 25. “Kim Jong-il ‘Has Nightmares of Being Stoned by His People’,” Chosun Ilbo, March 28, 2011, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/03/28/2011032801124.html. 26. Yoonok Chang, Stephan Haggard, and Marcus Noland, “Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments of North Korea's Transition,” Journal of Comparative Economics 37, no. 1 (March 2009): pp. 144–150. 27. Jun Kwanwoo, “Violence in N. Korea as Hunger Woes Mount: Reports,” Agence France-Presse, February 2, 2010, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gFu4naVzC3wuruVj77h0so_jqH_A. 28. “North Korea Currency Reform Sparks Anger,” BBC, December 4, 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8395268.stm. 29. For more, see Han S. Park, “Military-First (Songun) Politics: Implications for External Policies,” in New Challenges of North Korean Foreign Policy, ed. Kyung-Ae Park (New York: Palgrave, 2009), pp. 89–109. 30. “DPRK Foreign Ministry Spokesman Denounces U.S. Military Attack on Libya,” March 22, 2011, http://www.krld.pl/krld/czytelniateksty/biuletyny//129%20-%20DPRK%20Foreign%20Ministry%20Spokesman%20Denounces.pdf. 31. Nina Hachigian, “The Internet and Power in One-Party East Asian States,” The Washington Quarterly 25, no. 3 (Summer 2002): pp. 41–58, http://www.twq.com/02summer/hachigian.pdf; Kyungmin Ko, Heejin Lee, and Seungkwon Jang, “The Internet Dilemma and Control Policy,” Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 21, no. 3 (September 2009): pp. 279–295; and Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Takes to Twitter and YouTube,” New York Times, August 16, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/world/asia/17north.html. 32. See, for example, Andrei Lankov, “Pyongyang Strikes Back: North Korean Policies of 2002–08 and Attempts to Reverse ‘De-Stalinization from Below’,” Asia Policy, no. 8 (July 2009): pp. 61–62, http://nautilus.org/publications/essays/napsnet/forum/2009-2010/09056Lankov.pdf. 33. Byman and Lind, “Pyongyang's Survival Strategy.” 34. Byman and Lind, “Pyongyang's Survival Strategy.”., pp. 60–64. Additional informationNotes on contributorsVictor D. ChaVictor D. Cha is Senior Adviser at CSIS, and D.S. Song–KF Professor of Government and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. He served as director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council from 2004–2007Nicholas D. AndersonNicholas D. Anderson is a graduate student in the Security Studies program at Georgetown
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