Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Predicted population trends for Cozumel Curassows ( Crax rubra griscomi ): empirical evidence and predictive models in the face of climate change

2009; Association of Field Ornithologists; Volume: 80; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1557-9263.2009.00237.x

1557-9263

Miguel A. Martínez-Morales, Pablo Caballero Cruz, Alfredo D. Cuarà n,

Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies

Journal of Field OrnithologyVolume 80, Issue 4 p. 317-327 Predicted population trends for Cozumel Curassows (Crax rubra griscomi): empirical evidence and predictive models in the face of climate change Tendencias poblacionales estimadas para el hocofaisán de Cozumel: evidencia empírica y modelos predictivos en el contexto del cambio climático Miguel A. Martínez-Morales, Corresponding Author Miguel A. Martínez-Morales Hidalgo Section of the Society for the Study and Conservation of Birds in Mexico, Fco. I. Madero 58. Omitlán, 43560, Hidalgo, Mexico SACBÉ—Environmental Services, Biological Conservation, and Education. Pelicanos 75, Colonia Flamingos II, Cozumel, Quintana Roo, 77660, Mexico Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorPablo C. Cruz, Pablo C. Cruz Centre for Biological Research, Autonomous University of the State of Hidalgo, Carr. Pachuca-Tulancingo km 4.5, Col. Carboneras. Mineral de la Reforma, 42184, Hidalgo, MexicoSearch for more papers by this authorAlfredo D. Cuarón, Alfredo D. Cuarón SACBÉ—Environmental Services, Biological Conservation, and Education. Pelicanos 75, Colonia Flamingos II, Cozumel, Quintana Roo, 77660, Mexico Multicriteria SC. Torre Uxmal 18, Unidad Independencia IMSS, Mexico City, 10100, MexicoSearch for more papers by this author Miguel A. Martínez-Morales, Corresponding Author Miguel A. Martínez-Morales Hidalgo Section of the Society for the Study and Conservation of Birds in Mexico, Fco. I. Madero 58. Omitlán, 43560, Hidalgo, Mexico SACBÉ—Environmental Services, Biological Conservation, and Education. Pelicanos 75, Colonia Flamingos II, Cozumel, Quintana Roo, 77660, Mexico Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorPablo C. Cruz, Pablo C. Cruz Centre for Biological Research, Autonomous University of the State of Hidalgo, Carr. Pachuca-Tulancingo km 4.5, Col. Carboneras. Mineral de la Reforma, 42184, Hidalgo, MexicoSearch for more papers by this authorAlfredo D. Cuarón, Alfredo D. Cuarón SACBÉ—Environmental Services, Biological Conservation, and Education. Pelicanos 75, Colonia Flamingos II, Cozumel, Quintana Roo, 77660, Mexico Multicriteria SC. Torre Uxmal 18, Unidad Independencia IMSS, Mexico City, 10100, MexicoSearch for more papers by this author First published: 25 November 2009 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1557-9263.2009.00237.xCitations: 17Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstracten ABSTRACT We assessed the current conservation status and population trends of Cozumel Curassows (Crax rubra griscomi), a critically endangered and endemic cracid of Cozumel Island, Mexico. Distance sampling was used to estimate the population size in 2005 and compare it with a previous estimate in 1995. Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to model population trends, considering ecological and environmental conditions prevailing in 1995 and 2005. Additional PVA models were constructed using different hypothetical scenarios to assess the effects of particular factors and management strategies on population trends. We estimated a population size of 372 ± 155 curassows in the island's tropical semideciduous forest, before two hurricanes hit Cozumel Island in 2005. PVA modeling predicted a steep decline in population size in the ensuing decades as a result of an increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes related to global climate change, and an observed female bias in the sex ratio likely caused by a higher mortality rate for adult males. We recommend urgent management actions for the long-term conservation of Cozumel Curassows, including a ban on hunting, eradication of the feral fauna, particularly dogs, and implementation of a captive-breeding program to supplement the wild population. RESUMENes Evaluamos el estado de conservación actual y las tendencias poblacionales del hocofaisán de Cozumel (Crax rubra griscomi), un crácido críticamente amenazado y endémico a la Isla de Cozumel, México. Se empleó el muestreo de distancias para estimar su tamaño poblacional en 2005 y compararlo con la estimación previa de 1995. Se emplearon análisis de viabilidad poblacional (AVP) para modelar tendencias poblacionales considerando las condiciones ecológicas y ambientales prevalecientes en 1995 y 2005. Adicionalmente, se construyeron modelos de AVP bajo diferentes escenarios hipotéticos para evaluar los efectos de factores específicos y estrategias de manejo sobre su tendencia poblacional. Estimamos un tamaño poblacional de 372 ± 155 hocofaisanes en la selva mediana subcaducifolia de la isla, antes del impacto de dos huracanes sobre Cozumel en 2005. El AVP predijo una severa declinación en el tamaño poblacional en las siguientes décadas como resultado de un incremento en la frecuencia e intensidad de huracanes relacionado con el cambio climático global, y de un sesgo en la proporción sexual hacia las hembras, probablemente asociado a una mayor mortalidad de machos adultos. Recomendamos acciones de manejo urgentes para la conservación a largo plazo del hocofaisán de Cozumel, incluyendo una efectiva prohibición de la cacería, la erradicación completa de fauna feral, particularmente perros, y la implementación de un programa de reproducción en cautiverio para suplementar la población silvestre. LITERATURE CITED Akçakaya, H. R., and P. Sjögren-Gulve. 2000. Population viability analysis in conservation planning: an overview. Ecological Bulletins 48: 9–21. Arguedas, N., P. Mayer, D. Milligan, and L. Nordstrom. 1997. Plan de recuperación para Crax rubra en Costa Rica. In: The Cracidae: their biology and conservation ( S. D. Strahl, S. Beaujon, D. M. Brooks, A. J. Begazo, G. Sedaghatkish, and F. Olmos, eds.), pp. 249–261. Hancock House Publishers, Hong Kong . Bautista, S. M. 2006. Distribución, abundancia y dieta de perros y gatos ferales en la Isla Cozumel. M. S. Thesis. Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz , Mexico . Beissinger, S. R., and M. I. Westphal. 1998. On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. Journal of Wildlife Management 62: 821–841. Brook, B. W., J. J. O'Grady, A. P. Chapman, M. A. Burgman, H. R. Akçakaya, and R. Frankham. 2000. Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature 404: 385–387. Brooks, D. M., and S. D. Strahl ( comps.). 2000. Curassows, guans and chachalacas. Status survey and conservation action plan for cracids 2000–2004. IUCN/SSC Cracid Specialist Group, Gland , Switzerland , and Cambridge , UK . Boyce, M. S. 1992. Population viability analysis. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23: 481–506. Buckland, S. T., D. R. Anderson, K. P. Burngham, and J. L. Laake. 1994. Distance sampling: estimating abundance of biological populations. Chapman and Hall Publishers, London . Buckland, S. T., D. L. Borchers, and L. Thomas. 2004. Advanced distance sampling: estimating abundance of biological populations. Oxford University Press, New York . Caballero Cruz, P. 2007. Estado de conservación de Crax rubra griscomi en la Isla de Cozumel, México: evidencia empírica y modelos predictivos. B. S. Thesis. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo , Pachuca, Hidalgo, Mexico . CBSG (Conservation Breeding Specialist Group). 2002. Análisis de viabilidad poblacional y del hábitat para pavo de cacho o pavón (Oreophasis derbianus). Reporte final. IUCN/SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group, Apple Valley , MN . Davidson, W. V. 1975. The geographical setting. In: Changing pre-Colombian commercial systems ( J. A. Sabloff, and W. L. Rathje, eds.), pp. 47–59. Peabody Museum Monograph No. 3, Harvard University, Cambridge , MA . Delacour, J., and D. Amadon. 1973. Curassows and related birds. American Museum of Natural History, New York . Delacour, J., and D. Amadon. 2004. Curassows and related birds, 2nd ed. Lynx Editions, Barcelona , Spain , and The National Museum of Natural History, New York . Dobson, A. 1997. Some simple models for the dynamics of cracid populations. In: The Cracidae: their biology and conservation ( S. D. Strahl, S. Beaujon, D. M. Brooks, A. J. Begazo, G. Sedaghatkish, and F. Olmos, eds.), pp. 107–115. Hancock House Publishers, Hong Kong . Fournier Zepeda, R. 2006. Reproducción en cautiverio de Crax rubra y su reintroducción en la Península de Nicoya, Costa Rica. Boletín del Grupo de Especialistas en Crácidos 22: 23–37. Fuentes-Montemayor, E., A. D. Cuarón, E. Vázquez-Domínguez, J. Benítez-Malvido, D. Valenzuela, and E. Andresen. 2009. Living on the edge: roads and edge effects on small animal populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 78: 857–865. GLCF (Global Land Cover Facility) [online]. 2008. Earth Data Science Interface. Available at: (28 November 2008). González-García, F., D. M. Brooks, and S. D. Strahl. 2001. Historia natural y estado de conservación de los crácidos en México y Centroamérica. In: Cracid ecology and conservation in the new millennium ( D. M. Brooks, and F. González-García, eds.), pp. 1–50. Miscellaneous Publications of the Houston Museum of Natural Science, Number 2, Houston Museum of Natural Science, Houston , TX . INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) [online]. 2008. Conteo de población y vivienda 2005. Consulta interactiva de datos. Available at: (2 December 2008). Knutson, T. R., and R. E. Tuleya. 2004. Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. Journal of Climate 17: 3477–3495. Lacy, R. C., M. Borbat, and J. P. Pollak. 2007. Vortex: a stochastic simulation of extinction process, version 9.72. Chicago Zoological Society, Brookfield , IL . Martínez-Morales, M. A. 1996. The Cozumel Curassow: abundance, habitat preference and conservation. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Cambridge , Cambridge , UK . Martínez-Morales, M. A. 1997. Estado poblacional del hocofaisán de Cozumel (Crax rubra griscomi) y su potencial de conservación. In: The Cracidae: their biology and conservation ( S. D. Strahl, S. Beaujon, D. M. Brooks, A. J. Begazo, G. Sedaghatkish, and F. Olmos, eds.), pp. 460–466. Hancock House Publishers, Hong Kong . Martínez-Morales, M. A. 1999. Conservation status and habitat preferences of the Cozumel Curassow. Condor 101: 14–20. Martínez-Morales, M. A..2001. Situación poblacional y conservación del hocofaisán de Cozumel. In: Cracid ecology and conservation in the new millennium ( D. M. Brooks, and F. González-García, eds.), pp. 101–111. Miscellaneous Publications of the Houston Museum of Natural Science, Number 2, Houston Museum of Natural Science, Houston , TX . Martínez-Morales, M. A., and A. D. Cuarón. 1999. Boa constrictor, an introduced predator threatening the endemic fauna on Cozumel Island, Mexico. Biodiversity and Conservation 8: 957–963. Perdomo, H. 2006. Caminos como barreras para el movimiento de aves y efectos del huracán Wilma, en una comunidad de aves de sotobosque de la selva mediana subcaducifolia de la Isla Cozumel. M. S. thesis. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México , Mexico City , Mexico . Possingham, H. P., D. B. Lindenmayer, and T. W. Norton. 1993. A framework for the improvement of threatened species based on population viability analysis (PVA). Pacific Conservation Biology 1: 38–45. Romero-Nájera, I., A. D. Cuarón, and C. González-Baca. 2007. Distribution, abundance, and habitat use of introduced Boa constrictor threatening the native biota of Cozumel Island, Mexico. Biodiversity and Conservation 16: 1183–1195. Sánchez-Nuñez, E., and H. A. Rojas-Carrizales. 2003. Cría intensiva de hocofaisán (Crax rubra), Manual 1, Serie de manejo intensivo de la biodiversidad. AMARENA and CONABIO, Mexico City , Mexico . Sedaghatkish, G., and D. M. Brooks. 1999. Retraso evolutivo en los cracidos: cantado para ser la cena del cazador. In: Manejo y conservación de fauna silvestre en América Latina ( T. G. Fang, O. L. Montenegro, and R. E. Bodmer, eds.), pp. 335–340. Instituto de Ecología, La Paz , Bolivia . Sermeño-Martínez, A. 1986. Alimentación y reproducción del Pajuil (Crax rubra) en el Salvador. B. S. Thesis. Universidad de El Salvador , San Salvador , El Salvador . Silva, J. M., and S. D. Strahl. 1991. Human impact on populations of chachalacas, guans and curassows (Galliformes: Cracidae) in Venezuela. In: Neotropical wildlife use and conservation ( J. G. Robinson, and K. H. Redford, comps., eds.), pp. 37–52. Chicago University Press, Chicago , IL . Storm Advisory [online]. 2005. Atlantic. Hurricane tracking. Available at: (25 September 2008). Tanner, E. V. J., V. Kapos, and J. R. Healey. 1991. Hurricane effects on forest ecosystems in the Caribbean. Biotropica 23: 513–521. Terborgh, J., S. K. Robinson, T. A. Parker III, C. A. Munn, and N. Pierpont. 1990. Structure and organization of an Amazonian forest bird community. Ecological Monographs 60: 213–238. Thiollay, J. M. 1989. Area requirements for the conservation of rain forest raptors and game birds in French Guiana. Conservation Biology 3: 128–137. Thiollay, J. M. 1994. Structure, density and rarity in an Amazonian rainforest bird community. Journal of Tropical Ecology 10: 449–481. Thomas, L., J. L. Laake, S. Strindberg, F. F. C. Marques, S. T. Buckland, D. L. Borchers, D. R. Anderson, K. P. Burnham, S. L. Hedley, J. H. Pollard, J. R. B. Bishop, and T. A. Marques [online]. 2006. Distance 5.0, release BETA 5. Research Unit for Wildlife Population Assessment, University of St. Andrews , St. Andrews , UK . Available at: (30 January 2007). Torres-Villegas, C. P. 2006. Distribución, abundancia y comportamiento de perros y gatos en la Isla de Cozumel. M. S. thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México , Mexico City , Mexico . Citing Literature Volume80, Issue4December 2009Pages 317-327 ReferencesRelatedInformation