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National security vs. economic interests: reassessing Taiwan's mainland policy under Chen Shui‐bian

2004; Routledge; Volume: 13; Issue: 41 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/1067056042000281431

1469-9400

Chien‐Min Chao,

Hong Kong and Taiwan Politics

Abstract Having finished its first term, the Chen Shui‐bian Administration has found itself in deep water in the troubled cross‐Strait relations. Not only has Chen himself been making contradictory remarks, the Cabinet has been indecisive over issues related to China. The most difficult and irritating case for the DPP government has been the handling of the call made by high‐tech industries to allow them to invest in the mainland. The controversy seems to highlight a dilemma for Taiwan: while it needs the mainland market to save it from the current economic doldrums and create yet another potential ‘miracle’ of becoming a global economic powerhouse, it is worried that further economic engagement with its former rival may pose new kinds of threats to its national security. The debate over whether to allow an eight‐inch wafer foundry, the crown jewel of Taiwan's economy, to invest in the mainland market is but one case, albeit a highly significant one, of the difficult relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Notes * Chien‐min Chao is Professor of the Sun Yat‐sen Graduate Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities at the National Chengchi University. He has been a visiting distinguished professor at George Washington University and a guest professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. His publications include Taiwan and Mainland China: Relations and Foreign Competition (1992), Authoritarian Politics (1994), An Analysis to Contemporary Chinese Politics (1997), and Cross‐strait Relations and Taiwan's Foreign Policies (2000). He is also co‐editor of several books including: The ROC on the Threshold of the 21st Century: A Paradigm Reexamined (1999), Rethinking the Chinese State: Strategies, Society, and Security (Routledge, 2001), and Assessing the Lee Teng‐hui Legacy in Taiwan's Politics: Democratic Consolidation and External Relations (M.E. Sharpe, 2002). Dr Chao has also published 80 articles in academic journals. For a look at Chen Shui‐bian's relations with Taiwan independence, see Chien‐min Chao, ‘One step forward, one step backward: Chen Shui‐bian's mainland policy’, Journal of Contemporary China 11(34), (February 2003); ‘Introduction: the DPP in power’, Journal of Contemporary China 11(33), (November 2002), pp. 605–612. In an interview with a German journalist on 9 July 1999, former President Lee Teng‐hui said that the current state of relations between Taiwan and mainland China was that of a ‘state‐to‐state’. See Lianhe bao [United Daily News] (Taipei), (10 July 1999), p. 1. Taipei Times (Taipei), (11 December 2003), p. 1. For example, Chen emphasized the urgency of a new constitution and the rise of Taiwan identity as a result of his electoral victory in interviews with the Washington Post (published on 29 March 2004), the BBC (30 March 2004), and the Wall Street Journal (1 April 2004). For example, David M. Lampton and Kenneth Lieberthal, ‘Heading off the next war’, Washington Post, (12 April 2004), p. A19; Wendell Minnick, ‘The year to fear for Taiwan: 2006’, Asia Times, (10 April 2004); Tom Plate, ‘Don't bet against China going to war over Taiwan’, Strait Times, (1 April 2004). For Chen's inaugural speech, see www.taiwanpresident.org/page3.htm. The formula was reached between delegations of the SEF and the ARATS in 1992 before the historic meeting between Koo Chen‐fu and Wang Daohan that was held in Singapore on 7 April 1993. Lianhe bao, (22 July 2002), p. 1. Zhongguo shibao [China Times] (Taipei), (4 August 2003), p. 1. Zhongguo shibao, (1 April 2003), p. 2. Knowing that with mainland China's objection gaining membership in the WHO is highly unlikely, the strategy has shifted to applying for observer status in the past couple of years. On Chen's demand for a plebiscite over joining the WHO membership, see Lianhe bao, (21 May 2003), p. A2. Chao, ‘One step forward, one step backward’. Ibid. Chien‐min Chao, ‘Can economic integration lead to a more congenial political culture?’, Asian Survey 43(2), (March/April 2003). Chien‐min Chao, Liangan hudong yu waijiao jingzhu [Cross‐Strait Interaction and Diplomatic Competition] (Taipei: Yongye Publishing, 1994). Chao, ‘One step forward, one step backward’. See Du Yingyi, ‘Chanye jiegou biandong yu chanye kongdonghua’ [‘Changes of structures of industries and hollowing‐out effects’], Jingji qianzhan [Economic Prospects] (Taipei), (January 1997), pp. 84–87; Gao Rongzhou, ‘Riben chanye kongdonghua de zhenxiang’ [‘Truth about industrial hollowing‐out in Japan’], Jinri jingji [Today's Economy] (Taipei) 327, (November 1994), pp. 6–10. Wu Chongli and Yan Shufen, ‘ “Jieji yongren” huo “dadan xijin”? Woguo duiyu dalu touzi de yingxiang yinsu pinggu’ [‘ “Go slow, be patient” or “go west with boldness”? ROC's investment in mainland China and its impact’], Wenti yu yanjiu [Issues and Studies] (Taipei) 38(7), (1999), pp. 43–62. Lianhe bao, (12 March 2003), p. 6. The data is provided by the Institute for Information Industry, see Lianhe bao, (16 August 2002), p. 22. But according to the Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics, the Executive Yuan, the ratio is 46.9%; see Jingji ribao (Taipei), (12 March 2003), p. 6. Lianhe bao, (3 April 2003), p. C3. Tung Chen‐yuan, ‘Taiwan yu zhongguo jingmao guanxi‐jingji yu anquan de jiaoyi’ [‘Economic relations between Taiwan and mainland China‐the trade‐off between economics and security’], Yuanjing jikan [Prospect Quarterly] 1(2), (April 2000), pp. 31–82. The figure is based on statistics released by the PRC customs. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council puts the figure already in use at $US17 billion. See Mainland Affairs Council, Liangan jingji tongji yuebao [Cross‐Strait Economic Statistics Monthly] (Taipei) no. 108, (July 2002). This is obviously a conservative assessment. The Head of the Central Bank, Peng Huainan, estimates that amount at US$ 67 billion. See Lianhe bao, (17 January 2003), p. 22. However, some private sources claim that by the end of 2001 a staggering $US140 billion might have been contracted, being either already there or prepared to enter the mainland market and over 62,000 firms have been set up by the Taiwanese on the mainland. See Touzi zhongguo [Fortune China Monthly] (Taipei) no. 100, (June 2002), p. 44. Shangye zhoukan [Business Weekly] (Taipei), (12 August 2002), pp. 70–84. Chao, ‘One step forward, one step backward’. Zhongguo shibao, (28 August 2001), p. 1. Chen's proposals were not without conditions. He suggested that the ‘three direct links’ be negotiated according to the principles of one‐way, negotiated points, shipping before air, and cargo before passenger. Relevant statistics can be found on the website of the Mainland Affairs Council. The CLGTA was reorganized after CCP's 16th Party Congress. The new party boss Hu Jiantao has taken over the helm from Jiang Zemin as its new leader. Other members include Jia Qinglin, chairman of the China People's Political Consultative Conference, State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan, Wang Daohan, head of the ARATS, Chen Yunlin, head of the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, Xu Yongyao, head of the Ministry of National Security, General Xiong Guangkai, deputy chief of general staff of the People's Liberation Army, Wang Gan, head of the CCP's Central Office, and Liu Yandong, CCP's minister of the Department of United Front Works. See Zhongguo shibao, (26 December 2003), p. A13. Lianhe bao, (30 September 2001), p. 13. Lianhe bao, (9 March 2001). For Jiang's speech at the 16th Party Congress, see Renmin Ribao (Beijing), (18 November 2002), p. 1. Ziyou shibao [Liberty Times] (Taipei), (2 January 2003), p. 2. For Chen Yunlin's arguments, see Liangan guanxi [Cross‐strait Relations] (Beijing) no. 1, (2003). Renmin ribao, (25 January 2003), p. 1. Reversing its previous hostile stands against the island republic, Beijing broached the ‘three links’ and ‘four exchanges’ on 1 January 1979 in a letter to the people of Taiwan written by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. The policy statement was considered ground‐breaking, marking a new era in the PRC's policies towards Taiwan. Renmin ribao, (25 January 2003), p. 1. Lianhe bao, (15 October 1997), p. 9. Chien‐min Chao, ‘Weilai liangan zhengzhi huitan: Beijing, xuqiu, wenti’ [‘Future political negotiations between Taiwan and China: background, demands, and problems’], Zhengzhi kexue luncong [Annals on Political Science] (Taipei, 1999), pp. 247–259. Zhongguo shibao, (6 March 2003), p. 11. Zhongguo shibao, (17 January 2003), p. 2. Zhongyang ribao [Central Daily News] (Taipei), (22 January 2003), p. 4. Taiwan ribao (Taipei), (2 November 2002), p. 3. ‘Yiyuan fushi yinsinshui, liangan yanhao zheng fengchun’ [‘New Year is the best time for the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to resume normal relations’], Zhonggong yanjiu [Studies on Chinese Communism] 37(2), (February 2003), p. 20.