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A review of scenario planning

2012; Elsevier BV; Volume: 46; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003

1873-6378

Muhammad Amer, Tugrul Daım, Antonie Jetter,

Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

This paper reviews the scenario planning literature looking for answers for the following questions: How do qualitative and quantitative scenario methods differ and what are the advantages and disadvantages? What methods exist for quantitative scenario planning? Particularly quantitative scenario methods often lead to a large number of so-called “raw” scenarios that need to be further refined, discussed, and verbally described. How do scenario planners select raw scenarios for further exploration and how many should they choose? How is the problem of validation addressed in scenario studies?