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Choques Monetários e Cambiais sob Regimes de Câmbio Flutuante nos Países Membros do Mercosul: Há Indícios de Convergência Macroeconômica?

2010; Sekolah Tinggi Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan (STKIP) PGRI Sumatera Barat; Volume: 11; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

2460-190X

Pedro Raffy Vartanian,

Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

This paper analyzes the behavior of the economies of the four member countries of MERCOSUR. The goal is to determine if, under floating exchange rate, there are signs of macroeconomic convergence among countries of the bloc. To that end, the simulation of shocks with the use of vector autoregression model (VAR) aimed to compare the operation and the effects of monetary and exchange rate policies of countries. In addition, exogeneity tests were performed, in order to make a comparative analysis, and stability, to evaluate the occurrence of any symmetric shocks in the region. The results demonstrated that there is no evidence of macroeconomic convergence among the MERCOSUR countries, because beyond the distinguished elasticity between variables estimated for each of the countries and the differences in classification of variables exogeneity, different periods of instability indicate asymmetry of shocks among countries of the region.