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HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY FORECAST

2013; World Scientific; Volume: 01; Issue: 03 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1142/s2335680413500142

2335-6812

Keila Mara Cassiano, Luíz Albino Teixeira Júnior, Rafael Morais de Souza, Moisés Lima de Menezes, José Francisco Moreira Pessanha, Reinaldo Castro Souza,

Grey System Theory Applications

The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology for hydroelectric energy forecasting. A new approach for selection of the number of eigenvalues in SSA is also proposed. In this paper it is proposed the hierarchical clustering associated to PCA and integrated to ARIMA models. The proposed approach is applied to forecast the affluent flow in a hydroelectric plant located at Parana River Basin, Brazil. As a matter of fact, modeling such series is quite important for the optimal dispatch of the energy generation in Brazil due to the heavy participation of hydro plants in the country (over 85% of the generated energy comes from hydro plants).