Predicting short‐term disease progression among HIV‐infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region: preliminary results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD)
2005; Wiley; Volume: 6; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1111/j.1468-1293.2005.00292.x
ISSN1468-1293
Autores Tópico(s)HIV/AIDS drug development and treatment
ResumoHIV disease progression has been well documented in Western populations. This study aimed to estimate the short-term risk of AIDS and death from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), a prospective, multicentre cohort study in Asia and the Pacific region.Prospective data were analysed to estimate short-term disease progression. Endpoints were defined as the time from study entry to diagnosis with AIDS or death. Antiretroviral treatment was fitted as a time-dependent variable. Predictors of disease progression were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, and prognostic models were developed using Weibull models.A total of 1260 patients with prospective follow-up data contributed 477 person-years of follow-up, during which 18 patients died and 34 were diagnosed with AIDS, a combined rate of 10.1 per 100 person-years. Compared with patients receiving antiretroviral treatment, patients not on treatment had a higher rate of disease progression (17.6 vs. 8.1 per 100 person-years, respectively). Baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of disease progression. Prognostic models, using either a baseline CD4 count as the sole marker or markers including baseline haemoglobin, AIDS-related symptoms and previous or current antiretroviral treatment, were successful at identifying patients at high risk of short-term disease progression.Similar to the situation in Western countries, baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of short-term disease progression. Prognostic models based on readily available clinical data and haemoglobin level should be useful in estimating short-term clinical risk in HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region.
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