Strategies for Managing the Consequences of Black Swan Events
2009; American Society of Civil Engineers; Volume: 9; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1061/(asce)lm.1943-5630.0000036
ISSN1943-5630
Autores Tópico(s)Occupational Health and Safety Research
ResumoThe metaphor of Black Swan refers to unpredictable events, such as September 11, 2001, that happen from time to time and have enormous consequences. The phrase originated in medieval Europe during philosophical discourses, but has become widely known subsequent to the recent publication of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's eponymous bestseller, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Currently, civil engineers deal with the impact of extreme natural and man-made (accidental or malevolent intentional) hazards for critical facilities through a risk-based approach, where risk is a function of the likelihood of event occurrence and the resulting consequences. However, Black Swan events are not foreseeable by the usual statistics of correlation, regression, standard deviation or return periods. Expert opinions are also of minimal use since their experiences are tainted by biases and constrained by finite human life span. This inability to estimate the likelihood of occurrence for Black Swan events precludes the application of risk management. Therefore, the development of strategies to manage their consequences is of paramount importance. The objective here is to discuss some past such events of engineering relevance, idiosyncrasies of human behavior responsible for missing precognition of their clues, and management strategies to cope with the potential or actual consequences of such unforeseen, large-impact, hard-to-predict events.
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