Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Adaptive Daily Forecasting of Seismic Aftershock Hazard

2013; Seismological Society of America; Volume: 104; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1785/0120130040

1943-3573

Hossein Ebrahimian, Fatemeh Jalayer, Domenico Asprone, Anna Maria Lombardi, Warner Marzocchi, Andrea Prota, Gaetano Manfredi,

Seismology and Earthquake Studies

Research Article| December 10, 2013 Adaptive Daily Forecasting of Seismic Aftershock Hazard H. Ebrahimian; H. Ebrahimian aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar F. Jalayer; F. Jalayer aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar D. Asprone; D. Asprone aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. M. Lombardi; A. M. Lombardi bIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar W. Marzocchi; W. Marzocchi bIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. Prota; A. Prota aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. Manfredi G. Manfredi aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information H. Ebrahimian aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it F. Jalayer aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it D. Asprone aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it A. M. Lombardi bIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy W. Marzocchi bIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy A. Prota aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it G. Manfredi aDepartment of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-3573 Print ISSN: 0037-1106 Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (1): 145–161. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130040 Article history First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation H. Ebrahimian, F. Jalayer, D. Asprone, A. M. Lombardi, W. Marzocchi, A. Prota, G. Manfredi; Adaptive Daily Forecasting of Seismic Aftershock Hazard. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2013;; 104 (1): 145–161. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130040 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Seismic aftershock‐hazard analysis is one of the first steps toward establishing an integrated risk‐based decision‐making support framework for emergency management in the event of an ongoing aftershock sequence. This work focuses on providing adaptive daily forecasts of the mean daily rate of exceeding various spectral acceleration values (the aftershock hazard). Two well‐established earthquake‐occurrence models suitable for daily seismicity forecasts associated with the evolution of an aftershock sequence, namely, the modified Omori's aftershock model (MO) and the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) are adopted. An adaptive and evolutionary MO‐based aftershock occurrence model with distinct spatial and temporal components is proposed. In this model, the parameters deciding the temporal decay are updated based on the data provided by the ongoing aftershock sequence. This model adopts an evolutionary spatial seismicity pattern loosely based on spatial clustering of aftershock events in the sequence. Bayesian updating is also employed to provide sequence‐based parameter estimates for a given ground‐motion prediction model. Daily forecasts of the mean rate of exceedance of various spectral acceleration levels are calculated based on alternative occurrence models and the updated ground‐motion prediction relation. As a numerical example, daily forecasts of the aftershock‐hazard curve are obtained for the L'Aquila aftershock sequence based on the MO‐based and ETAS occurrence models, and an updated version of the Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) ground‐motion prediction model. These daily hazard forecasts are then compared with the observed daily rates of exceeding various spectral acceleration thresholds. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.