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Comparison of the clinical prediction model PREMM 1,2,6 and molecular testing for the systematic identification of Lynch syndrome in colorectal cancer

2012; BMJ; Volume: 62; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1136/gutjnl-2011-301265

1468-3288

Fay Kastrinos, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Judith Balmañà, Rowena Mercado, Steven Gallinger, Robert W. Haile, Graham Casey, John L. Hopper, Loı̈c Le Marchand, Noralane M. Lindor, Polly A. Newcomb, Stephen N. Thibodeau, Sapna Syngal,

Colorectal Cancer Treatments and Studies

Background Lynch syndrome is caused by germline mismatch repair (MMR) gene mutations. The PREMM 1,2,6 model predicts the likelihood of a MMR gene mutation based on personal and family cancer history. Objective To compare strategies using PREMM 1,2,6 and tumour testing (microsatellite instability (MSI) and/or immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining) to identify mutation carriers. Design Data from population-based or clinic-based patients with colorectal cancers enrolled through the Colon Cancer Family Registry were analysed. Evaluation included MSI, IHC and germline mutation analysis for MLH1 , MSH2 , MSH6 and PMS2 . Personal and family cancer histories were used to calculate PREMM 1,2,6 predictions. Discriminative ability to identify carriers from non-carriers using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was assessed. Predictions were based on logistic regression models for (1) cancer assessment using PREMM 1,2,6 , (2) MSI, (3) IHC for loss of any MMR protein expression, (4) MSI+IHC, (5) PREMM 1,2,6 +MSI, (6) PREMM 1,2,6 +IHC, (7) PREMM 1,2,6 +IHC+MSI. Results Among 1651 subjects, 239 (14%) had mutations (90 MLH1 , 125 MSH2 , 24 MSH6 ). PREMM 1,2,6 discriminated well with AUC 0.90 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.92). MSI alone, IHC alone, or MSI+IHC each had lower AUCs: 0.77, 0.82 and 0.82, respectively. The added value of IHC+PREMM 1,2,6 was slightly greater than PREMM 1,2,6 +MSI (AUC 0.94 vs 0.93). Adding MSI to PREMM 1,2,6 +IHC did not improve discrimination. Conclusion PREMM 1,2,6 and IHC showed excellent performance in distinguishing mutation carriers from non-carriers and performed best when combined. MSI may have a greater role in distinguishing Lynch syndrome from other familial colorectal cancer subtypes among cases with high PREMM 1,2,6 scores where genetic evaluation does not disclose a MMR mutation.