The End of the Libyan Dictatorship: The Uncertain Transition
2012; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 33; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/01436597.2012.691830
ISSN1360-2241
AutoresYahia H. Zoubir, Erzsébet Rózsa,
Tópico(s)Global Peace and Security Dynamics
ResumoAbstract Abstract The 42-year dictatorship in Libya finally collapsed in October 2011; it took the Western-backed armed uprising seven months of intensive fighting to defeat Qaddafi's loyalist forces. The fall of the Qaddafi regime is a welcome development in the Middle East and North Africa region. But, unlike Tunisia or Egypt, Libya does not have a standing army or a reliable potential force that can bring the necessary stability for a political transition. The tribal nature of the country and the difficulty of disarming the rebels and other groups pose serious challenges to the new authorities in Tripoli. Unless these issues are handled effectively, Libya will undergo a long period of unpredictability. Notes 1 A week before Qaddafi's capture and murder, 53 of his loyalists were executed; they were found with their hands tied behind their backs. This was documented by Human Rights Watch. See Adam Nossiter & Karim Fahim, 'Revolution won, top Libyan official vows a new and more pious state', New York Times, 23 October 2011, at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/24/world/africa/revolution-won-top-libyan-official-vows-a-new-and-more-pious-state.html?_r=1&ref=world, accessed 23 October 2011. This seems to have been a regular pattern, as such crimes had occurred throughout the rebellion. See 'Attacks on government supporters raise concerns', Human Rights Watch, 15 July 2011, at http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/07/15/libya-contact-group-should-press-rebels-protect-civilians, accessed 15 October 2011. 2 M Tigrine, 'Kadhafi contre la limitation des mandats présidentiels en Afrique', Liberté (Algiers), 17 March 2009, at http://www.liberte-algerie.com/international/kadhafi-contre-la-limitation-des-mandats-presidentiels-en-afrique-alors-qu-il-n-a-jamais-organise-d-elections-110942. 3 YH Zoubir, 'Libya and Europe: economic realism at the rescue of the Qaddafi authoritarian regime', Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 17(3), 2009, pp 401–415. 4 See YH Zoubir, 'The United States and Libya: the limits of coercive diplomacy', Journal of North African Studies, 16(2), 2011, pp 275–297. 5 For instance, his son Khamis headed the Khamis Brigade, the best equipped elite unit of the Libyan Army. 6 In the past decades Libyan state television broadcast every night a show with invited poets, who, while they discussed political events, also recited qasidas (narratives) in praise of Qaddafi and the regime. 7 The process, in fact, took several years, as the regime had started to eliminate small trade already by the end of the 1970s. 8 On this point, see D Vandewalle, 'Qadhafi's failed economic reforms: markets, institutions, and development in a rentier state', in Vandewalle (ed), North Africa: Development and Reform in a Changing Global Economy, New York: St Martin's Press, 1996, p 214. 9 For a thorough analysis of the role of tribes, clans and families in Libyan society, see W Lacher, 'Families, tribes and cities in the Libyan revolution', Middle East Policy, XVIII(4), 2011, at http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/families-tribes-and-cities-libyan-revolution. 10 For a good study of the tribal system in Libya, see JRH Davis, Libyan Politics: Tribe and Revolution, London: IB Tauris, 1987. 11 These black people of 'their own' are the descendents of those black African tribal leaders and/or elders who gave their sons and daughters to the care and household of the Arab/Berber caravan traders, ie on the one hand they were part of the black 'nobility' and on the other they came to be members of the Arab/Berber household in the framework of the mawla system. 12 In his interview with Al-Jazeera on 4 March, 2011, Saïf-al-Islam Qaddafi said that the dark-skinned soldiers were not mercenaries, but Libyan nationals as well. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v= YFigOpOBpxo. 13 YM Sawani, 'Post-Qadhafi Libya: interactive dynamics and the political future', Contemporary Arab Affairs, 5(1), 2012, p 7. 14 M Djaziri, 'Tribus et état dans le système politique libyen', Outre-terre, 3(23), 2009, p 131. 15 In his Green Book Qaddafi enumerated and summed up the merits of the tribe as a social unit. See http://www.mathaba.net/gci/theory/gb3.htm#TRIBE. 16 For a similar discussion, see Sawani, 'Post-Qadhafi Libya', p 3. 17 Endogamy, ie marrying within the family, such as marrying a paternal uncle's daughter, has sharply declined. 18 Libyan sociologist Mustafà Al-Tir, cited in Suwany, 'Post-Qadhafi Libya', p 3. 19 In Libya it will be the tribal system that will hold the balance of power rather than the military. M Leitsinger, 'Gadhafi, rebels vie for loyalty of Libyan tribes', msnbc , 18 May 2011, at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43049164/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/gadhafi-rebels-vie-loyalty-libyan-tribes. 20 Sawani, 'Post-Qadhafi Libya', p 3. 21 'Libyans themselves are keen to stress that they have no role in the politics of the state'. Leitsinger, 'Gadhafi, rebels vie for loyalty of Libyan tribes'. 22 Igor Cherstich gives the figure of 300 tribes. Cherstich, 'Libya's revolution: tribe, nation, politics', Open Democracy, 3 October 2011, at http://www.opendemocracy.net/igor-cherstich/libyas-revolution-tribe-nation-politics. 23 'Libyan communal, tribal leaders call for united front at Istanbul conference', Tripoli Post, 30 May 2011, at http://www.tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=6079&archive=1. 24 'Libyan tribes call for end to armed uprising', Tripoli Post, 6 May 2011, at http://www.tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=5974&archive=1. 25 'Libya's tribe switching loyalties?', Terrorism Monitor, 9(22), 2 June 2011, at http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38003&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=26&cH ash=6689a15a891317234c06e139fb530f33. 26 Sawani, 'Post-Qadhafi Libya', p 4. The author, however, argues that 'the revolt against Qadhafi's regime was not based on tribalism and did not witness tribal battles in any palpable or significant way'. Nevertheless, he admits that the rebellion generated local and tribal fanaticisms (p 7). 27 Benghazi was the centre of the Libyan Kingdom under the Sanusi monarchy and there has been a long-standing rivalry between Tripoli and Benghazi. 28 M al-Qaddafi, 'We shall clear Libya…from street to street, door to door', 'zanga zanga' speech, 22 February, 2011, at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69wBG6ULNzQ. 29 R Falk, 'Libya after Gaddafi', The Nation, 14 November 2011, at http://www.thenation.com/article/164221/libya-after-qaddafi. See also H Roberts, 'Who said Gaddafi had to go?', London Review of Books, 17 November 2011, pp 8–18. Roberts points out that, although the ntc and the Western media viewed what happened in Libya as a revolution and an integral part of the Arab Spring, 'the Libyan drama is rather an addition to the list of Western or Western-backed wars against hostile, "defiant," insufficiently "compliant," or "rogue" regimes'. 30 M Mazzetti & E Schmitt, 'cia agents in Libya aid airstrikes and meet rebels', New York Times, 30 March 2011, at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/world/africa/31intel.html?hp, accessed 31 March 2011. 31 Analysis of the economic implications, including the question of oil, exceeds the scope of this article; therefore, they are not dealt with here. 32 EN Rózsa, 'Libya and the Hungarian EU presidency', 13 July 2011, at http://www.hiia.hu/pub/displ.asp?id=TVYBGH. The first half of 2011 coincided with Hungary's presidency of the EU. 33 US security officials have told Zoubir that 20 000 to 25 000 missiles are unaccounted for and are believed to be in the possession of aqim. See also C Munoz, 'Missing Libya missiles already smuggled out, US searches for them', Aol Defense, 4 October 2011, at http://defense.aol.com/2011/10/04/some-missing-missiles-in-libya-are-already-gone-general-says, accessed 12 October 2011. 34 For good discussions regarding the fragility of the states in the region, see D Carment, 'Assessing state failure: implications for theory and policy', Third World Quarterly, 24(3), 2003, pp 407–427; L Brock, H-H Holm, G Sørensen & M Stohl, Fragile States—Violence and the Failure of Intervention, Cambridge: Polity, 2012; and R Draman, 'Managing chaos in the west African sub-region: assessing the role of ecomog in Liberia', Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, 6(2), 2003, pp 1–31. See his interview with Selima Tlemçani in 'Nous devons resserrer les rangs et éviter toute confrontation qui diviserait le mouvement', El Watan (Algiers), 9 April 2012, at http://www.elwatan.com/international/nous-devons-resserrer-les-rangs-et-eviter-toute-confrontation-qui-diviserait-le-mouvement-09–04–2012–16607 5_112.php. 36 S Wing, 'The coup in Mali is only the beginning', Foreign Affairs/Snapshot, 11 April 2012, at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137398/susanna-wing/the-coup-in-mali-is-only-the-beginning?cid=nlc- this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-041212-the_coup_in_mali_is_only_the_b_2–041212. 37 Judith van der Merwe, of the Algiers-based African Centre for the Study and Research of Terrorism, cited in W Roelf, 'Interview—analyst says Somali pirates have new weapons from Libya', Reuters, 12 April 2012, at http://af.reuters.com/article/somaliaNews/idAFL6E8FC1WW20120412?sp=true. 38 GM Faouzi, 'C'est un véritable arsenal de guerre qui a été découvert par les services de sécurité algériens dans la région d'In Amenas', El Watan, 20 February 2012, at http://www.elwatan.com/actualite/in-amenas-des-missiles-enterres-dans-le-sable-20–02–2012–159729_109.php; S Balhi, 'Un stock découvert à In Amenas: des missiles libyens anti-avion sur le territoire algérien', Dernières Nouvelles d'Algérie, 19 February 2012, at http://www.dna-algerie.com/interieure/un-stock-decouvert-a-ain-amenas-des-missiles-libyens-anti-avion-sur-le-territoire-algerien. 39 'Libya's transition: uncertain trajectories', Atlantic Council–Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, March 2012, at http://www.acus.org/files/libya_transition_primer.pdf. 40 The Libyan Interim National Council, 'Founding Statement of the Interim Transitional National Council (ntc)', 5 March 2011, at http://www.ntclibya.org/english/founding-statement-of-the-interim-transitional-national-council, accessed 20 March 2011. 41 There is little information about the more than 50 members of the ntc. However, there is ample information concerning its main visible leaders. See, for instance, D Lagarde, 'Qui sont les nouveaux maîtres de la Libye?', L'Express, 19 September 2011, at http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/afrique/qui-sont-les-nouveaux-maitres-de-la-libye_1027478.html, accessed 20 October 2011. 42 Lacher, 'Families, tribes and cities in the Libyan revolution'. 43 For a brief background on the ligc, see O Ashour, 'Ex-jihadists in the new Libya', Foreign Policy, 29 August 2011, at http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/29/post_qaddafi_libya_islamists_arms_and_democracy_0, accessed 29 August 2011. 44 A Hauslohner, 'Libya's revolution produces a new hybrid: pro-Western Islamists', Time, 16 September 2011, at http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,2093518,00.html accessed 8 October 2011. 45 S Heleta, 'Post-Gaddafi Libya—a liberal peace project', TransConflict, 7 September 2011, at http://www.transconflict.com/2011/09/post-gaddafi-libya-a-liberal-peace-project-079. 46 Djaziri, 'Tribus et état dans le système politique libyen'. 47 Ibid. 48 Ibid. 49 EN Rózsa & L Tüske, 'Libya: the other way or are really the tribes ruling the agenda?', Transatlantické listy (Budapest), 2, 2011, p 15. 50 N Pelham, 'Libya, the colonel's yoke lifted', merip Online, 7 September 2011, at http://www.merip.org/mero/mero090711, accessed 8 September 2011. 51 'Battle between rival Libyan militias kills at least 22', New York Times, 3 April 2012, at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/04/world/africa/clash-of-libyan-militias-kills-at-least-22.html?sq=qaddafi&st=cse&%2339;s weapons=&scp=7&pagewanted=print. 52 A Shahid, 'Libya struggles to curb militias as chaos grows', New York Times, 8 February 2012, at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/world/africa/libyas-new-government-unable-to-control-militias.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2&pagewanted=print; and 'Libye: des affrontements tribaux font des dizaines de morts', L'Express, 28 March 2012, at http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/afrique/libye-des-affrontements-tribaux-font-des-dizaines-de-morts_1098678.html. 53 G Gatehouse, 'Benghazi's bid for Cyrenaica autonomy divides Libyans', bbc World Service, 10 March 2012, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17316264. 54 For a discussion of the different forces, see Sawani, 'Post-Qadhafi Libya', pp 16–20. 55 For an elaborate discussion of the transition plans, see CM Blanchard, Libya: Transition and US Policy, Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 28 March 2012, at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33142.pdf. 56 Blanchard, 'Libya', p 13. 57 This was discussed formally during Mustapha Abdul Jalil's official visit to Algeria in April 2012. See Joint Algerian–Libyan Communiqué, Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 16 April 2012, at http://www.mae.dz/ma_fr/stories.php?story=12/04/16/1845232. 58 MJ Stephan & E Chenoweth, 'Why civilian resistance works: the strategic logic of non-violent conflict', International Security, 33(1), 2008, pp 7–44. 59 M-M Ould Mohamedou, 'The "Iraqisation" of Libya', Europe's World, Spring 2012, at http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home_old/Article/tabid/191/ArticleType/ArticleView/ArticleID/21961/language/en-us/TheIraqisationofLibya.aspx.
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