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Schistosomiasis risk mapping in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a decision tree approach, remote sensing data and sociological indicators

2010; Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde; Volume: 105; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1590/s0074-02762010000400033

1678-8060

Flávia Toledo Martins-Bedê, Luciano Vieira Dutra, Corina da Costa Freitas, Ricardo José de Paula Souza e Guimarães, Ronaldo Amaral, Sandra Drummond, Omar S Carvalho,

Zoonotic diseases and public health

Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG). We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.