Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

To boldly go where no man has gone before: integrating cognitive and physical features in scenario studies

2001; Elsevier BV; Volume: 33; Issue: 10 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/s0016-3287(01)00023-4

1873-6378

Pursey Heugens, J. van Oosterhout,

Complex Systems and Decision Making

A recent surge in the literature shows that scenario studies are very much back in vogue. The revival of the scenario approach to strategic planning, however, also shows that the method has developed rather one-sidedly both in theory and practice. The dominant trend in scenario thinking is that scenario construction is used primarily as a cognitive exercise, involving mental processes only. In this paper we aim to complement this development by arguing for a more integrated approach, involving both cognitive and "physical" features. Such an approach combines more traditional cognitive elements of scenario studies with, for example, organizational experiments, deliberately made small mistakes, and external corporate ventures. Moreover, we introduce a typology of scenario studies based on two salient assumptions that characterize the field.