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Importance of non-CO 2 emissions in carbon management

2014; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 5; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/17583004.2014.913859

1758-3012

Alice Bows‐Larkin, Carly McLachlan, Sarah Mander, Frances Wood, Mirjam Röder, Patricia Thornley, Elena Dawkins, Clair Gough, Laura O׳Keefe, Maria Sharmina,

Climate Change Policy and Economics

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding '2ーC' limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2ーC falling short of the mark.