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Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

2015; National Academy of Sciences; Volume: 112; Issue: 50 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1073/pnas.1516179112

1091-6490

Anna Dreber, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian A. Nosek, Magnus Johannesson,

Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Significance There is increasing concern about the reproducibility of scientific research. For example, the costs associated with irreproducible preclinical research alone have recently been estimated at US$28 billion a year in the United States. However, there are currently no mechanisms in place to quickly identify findings that are unlikely to replicate. We show that prediction markets are well suited to bridge this gap. Prediction markets set up to estimate the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in The Reproducibility Project: Psychology predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of individual forecasts.