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Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

2014; Volume: 2014; Issue: 52 Linguagem: Inglês

10.17016/feds.2014.52

2767-3898

Carlo Altavilla, Domenico Giannone, Michèle Modugno,

Credit Risk and Financial Regulations

This study analyzes the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroeconomic fundamentals. We identify these innovations with macroeconomic news, defined as differences between the actual releases and their market expectations. We show that macroeconomic news explain about one-third of the low frequency (quarterly) fluctuations of long-term bond yields. When focusing on the high frequency (daily) movements this share decreases to one-tenth. This result is due to the fact that macro news have a persistent effect on the yield curve. Non-fundamental factors, instead, substantially influence the day-to-day movements of bond yields but their effects are shorter-living and mean-reverting.