Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901-99
2005; Wiley; Volume: 25; Issue: 9 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1002/joc.1163
ISSN1097-0088
Autores Tópico(s)Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
ResumoInternational Journal of ClimatologyVolume 25, Issue 9 p. 1149-1171 Research Article Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901–99 Anders Moberg, Corresponding Author Anders Moberg [email protected] Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Meteorology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SwedenSearch for more papers by this authorPhilip D. Jones, Philip D. Jones Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UKSearch for more papers by this author Anders Moberg, Corresponding Author Anders Moberg [email protected] Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Meteorology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SwedenSearch for more papers by this authorPhilip D. Jones, Philip D. Jones Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UKSearch for more papers by this author First published: 20 June 2005 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1163Citations: 258AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract We analyse 20th century trends in six indices for precipitation extremes and four indices for temperature extremes, calculated from daily observational data for European stations. The indices chosen reflect rather moderate extremes. Most of the ∼80 stations used are situated in central and western Europe; therefore, results mainly refer to this region. Trends are calculated over 1901–99, 1921–99, 1901–50 and 1946–99. Two different trend estimators are used, and significance is assessed with a bootstrap technique. We find that: Significant increasing precipitation trends over the 20th century dominate in winter for both average precipitation intensity and moderately strong events. Simultaneously, the length of dry spells generally increased insignificantly. There are few significant trends of any sign for precipitation indices in summer, but there are insignificant drying trends over Scandinavia and wetting trends over central and western Europe for 1921–99. The length of dry spells in summer generally increased insignificantly. Both the warm and cold tails of the temperature distribution in winter warmed over the entire 20th century. Notably low values in the cold tail for daily Tmax and Tmin occurred in the early 1940s, leading to strong but insignificant negative trends for 1901–50, whereas little change occurred before 1940. Warming of winters during 1946–99 occurred in both the warm and cold tails for both Tmax and Tmin, with the largest warming in the cold tail for Tmin. The warm tail of daily Tmin (and to a smaller extent Tmax) in summer warmed significantly during the past century. There is more evidence for summer warming in the first half of the century compared with the second half. During 1946–99, the warm tail of daily Tmax in summer was generally warming while the cold tail was cooling (both insignificantly). More digitized daily observational data from various European sub-regions are needed to permit a spatially more extensive analysis of changes in climate extremes over the last century. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society REFERENCES Böhm R, Auer I, Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Nanni T, Schöner W. 2001. Regional temperature variability in the European Alps: 1760–1998 from homogenized instrumental time series. International Journal of Climatology 12: 1779–1801. Bonsal BR, Zhang X, Vincent LA, Hogg WD. 2001. Characteristics of daily and extreme temperatures over Canada. Journal of Climate 14: 1959–1976. Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Monti F, Nanni T. 2004. Changes in daily precipitation frequency in Italy over the last 120 years. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: D05102. DOI: 10.1029/2003JD004296. DeGaetano AT. 1996. Recent trends in maximum and minimum temperature threshold exceedances in the northeastern United States. Journal of Climate 9: 1646–1660. Domonkos P, Kyselý J, Piotrowicz K, Petrovic P, Likso T. 2003. Variability of extreme temperature events in south-central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large-scale circulation. International Journal of Climatology 23: 987–1010. Easterling DR. 2002. Recent changes in frost days and the frost-free season in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83: 1327–1332. Easterling DR, Alexander LV, Mokssit A, Detemmerman V. 2003. CCI/CLIVAR Workshop to develop priority climate indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1403–1407. Emerson JD, Hoaglin DC. 1983. Resistant lines for y versus x. In Understanding Robust and Exploratory Data Analysis, DC Hoaglin, F Mosteller, JW Tukey (eds). John Wiley: New York. Folland CK, Karl TR, Christy JR, Clarke RA, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, Mann ME, Oerlemans J, Salinger MJ, Wang S-W. 2001. Observed climate variability and change. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, JT Houghton, Y Ding, DJ Griggs, M Noguer, PJ van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell, CA Johnson (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Frei C, Schär C. 2001. Detection probability of trends in rare events: theory and application to heavy precipitation in the alpine region. Journal of Climate 14: 1568–1584. Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG, Peterson T. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19: 193–212. Haylock M, Goodess C. 2004. Interannual variability of European extreme winter rainfall and links with mean large-scale circulation. International Journal of Climatology 24: 759–776. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Stott PA, Kharin VV. 2004. Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate 17: 3683–3700. Horton EB, Folland CK, Parker DE. 2001. The changing incidence of extremes in worldwide and central England temperatures to the end of the twentieth century. Climatic Change 50: 267–295. Hurrell JW. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269: 676–679. Hurrell JW, Folland CK. 2002. A change in summer atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. CLIVAR Exchanges 7(3–4): 52–54. Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M. 2003. An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation. In The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, JW Hurrell, Y Kushnir, G Ottersen, M Visbeck (eds). Geophysical Monograph Series, 134. American Geophysical Union: Washington; 1–35. Karl TR, Nicholls N, Ghazi A. 1999. CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO Workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes—Workshop summary. Climatic Change 42: 3–7. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW. 2000. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM. Journal of Climate 13: 3760–3788. Kiktev D, Sexton D, Alexander L, Folland C. 2003. Comparison of modelled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. Journal of Climate 16: 3560–3571. Klein Tank AMG, Können GP. 2003. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–1999. Journal of Climate 16: 3665–3680. Klein Tank AMG, Wijngaard JB, van Engelen AFV. 2002b. Climate of Europe. Assessment of observed daily temperature and precipitation records. KNMI, De Bilt, the Netherlands. Kyselý J. 2002. Temporal fluctuations in heat waves at Prague–Klementinum, the Czech Republic, from 1901–97, and their relationships to atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology 23: 33–50. Marshall J, Kushnir Y, Battisti D, Chang P, Czaja A, Dickson R, Hurrell J, McCartney M, Saravanan R, Visbeck M. 2001. North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1863–1898. Maugeri M, Buffoni L, Delmonte B, Fassina A. 2002. Daily Milan temperature and pressure series (1763–1998): completing and homogenising the data. Climatic Change 53: 119–149. Moberg A, Alexandersson H, Bergström H, Jones PD. 2003. Were southern Swedish summer temperatures before 1860 as warm as measured? International Journal of Climatology 23: 1495–1521. Nicholls N. 2001. The insignificance of significance testing. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 981–986. Nicholls N, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, Karl TR, Ogallo LA, Parker DE. 1996. Observed climate variability and change. In Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, JT Houghton, LG Meira Filho, BA Callander, N Harris, A Kattenberg, K Maskell (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge 133–192. Peterson TC, Folland C, Gruza G, Hogg W, Mokssit A, Plummer N. 2001. Report on the activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Rapporteurs 1998–2001. Report WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Peterson TC, Taylor MA, Demeritte R, Duncombe DL, Burton S, Thompson F, Porter A, Mercedes M, Villegas E, Semexant Fils R, Klein Tank A, Martis A, Warner R, Joyette A, Mills W, Alexander L, Gleason B. 2002. Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 107(D21): 4601. DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002251. Plummer N, Salinger MJ, Nicholls N, Suppiah R, Hennessy KJ, Leighton RM, Trewin B, Page CM, Lough JM. 1999. Changes in climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the twentieth century. Climatic Change 42: 183–202. Semenov VA, Bengtsson L. 2002. Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM. Climate Dynamics 19: 123–140. Tuomenvirta H. 2001. Homogeneity adjustments of temperature and precipitation series—Finnish and Nordic data. International Journal of Climatology 21: 495–506. Von Storch H, Zwiers FW. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Wijngaard JB, Klein Tank AMG, Können GP. 2003. Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology 23: 679–692. Wilks DS. 1997. Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields. Journal of Climate 10: 65–82. Zhai P, Pan X. 2003. Trends in temperature extremes during 1951–1999 in China. Geophysical Research Letters 30(17): 1913. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL018004. Zhai P, Sun A, Ren F, Liu X, Gao B, Zhang Q. 1999. Changes of climate extremes in China. Climatic Change 42: 203–218. Citing Literature Volume25, Issue9July 2005Pages 1149-1171 ReferencesRelatedInformation
Referência(s)