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Address of the President, Lord May of Oxford OM AC FRS, given at the Anniversary Meeting on 30 November 2005Threats to tomorrow's world

2006; Royal Society; Volume: 60; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1098/rsnr.2005.0134

1743-0178

Robert M. May,

Climate Change Communication and Perception

Restricted accessMoreSectionsView Full TextView PDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail Cite this article May Robert M 2006Address of the President, Lord May of Oxford OM AC FRS, given at the Anniversary Meeting on 30 November 2005Threats to tomorrow's worldNotes Rec. R. Soc.60109–130http://doi.org/10.1098/rsnr.2005.0134SectionRestricted accessResearch articleAddress of the President, Lord May of Oxford OM AC FRS, given at the Anniversary Meeting on 30 November 2005Threats to tomorrow's world Robert M May Robert M May [email protected] Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for more papers by this author Robert M May Robert M May [email protected] Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Published:18 January 2006https://doi.org/10.1098/rsnr.2005.0134ReferencesNotes1See for example, M. A. Nowak, R. M. May and K. Sigmund, 'The arithmetics of mutual help', Sci. Am. 273 (1), 58–65 (1995), and further reading given there. Google Scholar2V. A. A. Jansen et al., 'Measles outbreaks in a population with declining vaccine uptake', Science 301, 804 (2003). Google Scholar3D. Kennedy, 'Twilight for the Enlightenment', Science 308, 165 (2005). Google Scholar4R. Dawkins, The selfish gene (Oxford University Press, 1976). Google Scholar5J. Gribbin, Fellowship: the story of a revolution (Penguin Group, London 2005). Google Scholar6B. Farrington, Francis Bacon: philosopher of industrial science (Lawrence and Wishart, 1951), p. 3. Google Scholar7Robert Hooke's 'To Do' list is a manuscript document held in the Royal Society's library (Ref. No. C1.P/20/67). Google Scholar8J. E. Cohen, 'The human population grows up', Sci. Am., September, 49–55 (2005). Google Scholar9P. M. Vitousek et al., 'Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis', BioScience 36, 368–373 (1986). Google Scholar10IPCC, Climate change 2001 (4 volumes) (Cambridge University Press, 2001). Also available on www.ipcc.ch. Google Scholar11J. Houghton, Climate change and sustainable energy (The Prince Philip Lecture 2005), published by the Meteorological Office, Iffucem 05/0195. Google Scholar12E. Kolbert, 'The climate of man—III', New Yorker, 3 May, 52–63 (2005). Google Scholar13K. Emanuel, 'Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years', Nature 436, 686–689 (2005). Google Scholar14Royal Society Discussion Meeting on evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet: new understanding and challenges, programme and abstracts, 17–18 October 2005. (26 pages.). Google Scholar15See, for example, J. Mitchell, 'The potential for extreme human induced climate change', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (in press). This paper is from the Royal Society Discussion Meeting on extreme natural hazards. 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Google Scholar22S. Pacala and R. Socolow, 'Stabilization wedges: solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies', Science 305, 968–972 (2004). Google Scholar23According to this lexicon, the following terms were used consistently throughout the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (op. cit., note 10): virtually certain (more than 99% chance that a result is true); very likely (90–99% chance); likely (66–90%); medium likelihood (33–55%); unlikely (10–33%); very unlikely (1–10%); and exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance). Google Scholar24P. M. Hammond, 'The current magnitude of biodiversity', in Global biodiversity assessment (ed. V. H. Heywood), pp. 113–128 (Cambridge University Press, 1995). Google Scholar25R. M. May, 'The dimensions of life on Earth', in Nature and human society, pp. 30-45 (National Academy of Sciences Press, Washington DC, 1999). Google Scholar26A. R. Solow, L. A. Mound and K. J. Gaston, 'Estimating the rate of synonymy', Syst. Biol. 44 93–96 (1995). Google Scholar27For more full discussion of these issues see the two Theme Issues of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: 'Taxonomy for the twenty-first century' (ed. H. C. J. Godfrey and S. Knapp, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 358, 557–739 (2004)) and 'DNA barcoding of life' (ed. V. Savolainen et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 1803–1980 (2005)). Google Scholar28These percentages are from the IUCN Red Data Book 2004. See www.redlist.org/info/tables.html. Google Scholar29R. M. May, J. H. Lawton and N. E. Stork, 'Assessing extinction rates', in Extinction rates (ed. J. H. Lawton and R. M. May), pp. 1–24 (Oxford University Press, 1995). Google Scholar30J. M. Diamond, 'The present, past and future of human-caused extinctions', Phil. Trans. R Soc. B 325, 469–477 (1989). Google Scholar31T. E. Lovejoy and L. Hannah (eds), Climate change and biodiversity (Yale University Press, 2005). Google Scholar32Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis (Island Press, Washington DC, 2005). Google Scholar33R. Costanza et al., 'The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital', Nature 387, 253–257 (1997). Google Scholar34D. Pauly and V. Christensen, 'Primary production required to sustain global fisheries', Nature 374, 255–257 (1995). Google Scholar35J. R. Beddington and G. P. Kirkwood (eds), 'Fisheries: a future?', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 1–218 (2005). Google Scholar36This memorable analogy was offered by Daniel Pauly at the 1984 Dahlem Conference 'Exploitation of marine communities.' Unfortunately, Pauly's observation is as true today, 20 years on, as it was then. Google Scholar37J. M. Diamond, Collapse: how societies choose to fail or survive (Allen Lane, London, 2005). Google Scholar38J. Reader, Cities (Heinemann, London, 2004). Google Scholar39W. H. McNeill, Plagues and peoples (Blackwell, Oxford, 1976). Google Scholar40R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control (Oxford University Press, 1991). Google Scholar41A. L. Moote and D. C. Moote, The Great Plague (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004). Google Scholar42T. McKeown, The role of modern medicine: dream, mirage or nemesis? (Blackwell, Oxford, 1979). Google Scholar43See D. Bell (op. cit., note 47) and D. Bell, 'Origins of HIV and the AIDS epidemic', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 356, 777–977 (2001). Google Scholar44N. M. Ferguson et al., 'Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia', Nature 437, 209–214 (2005). Google Scholar45I. M. Longini et al., 'Containing pandemic influenza at the source', Science 309, 1083–1087 (2005). Google Scholar46R. M. May, 'Can we avert a lethal flu pandemic?', Curr. Biol. 15, R922–3 (2005). Google Scholar47A. R. McLean et al., SARS: a case study in emerging infections (Oxford University Press, 2005). Google Scholar48R. M. Anderson et al., 'Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002–2003 epidemic', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 359, 1091–1105 (2004). Google Scholar49'Family values versus safe sex: a reflection by His Eminence Alfonso Cardinal López Trujillo', 1 December 2003. http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/pontifical_councils/family/documents/rc_pc_family_doc_20031201_family-values-safe-sex-trujillo_en.html. Google Scholar50Here is one specific example. In 2004 Naomi Oreskes studied the more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed journals between 1993 and 2003 (quoted in Kolbert (op. cit., note 12), p. 61). Three-quarters endorsed the view that anthropogenic emissions were at least partly responsible for the observed warming of the past 50 years. The remaining quarter, which mainly dealt with methodology or climate history as such, did not discuss current conditions. Not one single paper presented evidence or argued against anthropogenic warming being a fact. This is, to put it gently, not the impression conveyed by Fox News or our own Daily Mail. Google Scholar51S. Jasanoff, Designs on nature: science and democracy in Europe and the United States (Princeton University Press, 2005). See also the review by M. Cantley, 'In our own hands', Nature 437, 193–194 (2005). Google Scholar52Quoted by J. M. Thomas in his address at Max Perutz's Memorial Service in Cambridge on 21 September 2002. Google Scholar53D. MacKenzie, 'End of the Enlightenment', New Scient., 8 October, 40–43 (2005). Google Scholar54The quotes by Armstrong and by Sardar are from MacKenzie (op. cit., note 53). Google Scholar55M. Holderness, 'Enemy at the gates', New Scient., 8 October, 47–49 (2005). Google Scholar56B. Moyers, 'Welcome to Doomsday', New York Rev. Books 52 (5), 8–10 (2005). Google Scholar57T. Hunt, The Guardian, 22 March 2005. Google Scholar58Particularly disconcerting is the account of Ron Suskind's meeting with a 'senior advisor to Bush', who is quoted as saying 'what we call the reality-based community … believe that solutions emerge from judicious study of discernable reality, [but] that's not the way the world really works anymore. We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.' From New York Times, 17 October 2004. Google Scholar59This quote by Scott Atran is from M. Brooks, 'Meeting of minds', New Scient., 8 October, 44–46 (2005). Google Scholar60After Fig. 8 in T. N. Palmer et al., 'Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 1991–1998 (2005). Google Scholar61Images created by April Nobile, http://antweb.org/; courtesy of Brian Fisher. Google Scholar62From Table 3 in J. Holdren, 'Environmental change and the human condition', Bull. Am. Acad. Arts Sci., Fall, 24–31 (2003). Google Scholar63A. J. Raja and P. A. Singer, 'Transatlantic divide in publication of content relevant to developing countries', Br. Med. J. 329, 1429–1430 (2004). Google Scholar64These overall percentages are unweighted averages over the four journals. Google Scholar65I am grateful to Iain Finlayson, Rachel Quinn, Bob Ward and others for help with this speech and document. In particular, I thank Chris Bond and Carol Gray, my Personal Assistants in Oxford and London, respectively, for their assistance. Google Scholar Previous ArticleNext Article VIEW FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD PDF FiguresRelatedReferencesDetailsCited by Krockow E, Colman A and Pulford B (2016) Cooperation in repeated interactions: A systematic review of Centipede game experiments, 1992–2016, European Review of Social Psychology, 10.1080/10463283.2016.1249640, 27:1, (231-282), Online publication date: 1-Jan-2016. 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Cowling R, Egoh B, Knight A, O'Farrell P, Reyers B, Rouget M, Roux D, Welz A and Wilhelm-Rechman A (2008) An operational model for mainstreaming ecosystem services for implementation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.0706559105, 105:28, (9483-9488), Online publication date: 15-Jul-2008. LAWTON J (2007) Ecology, politics and policy, Journal of Applied Ecology, 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01315.x, 44:3, (465-474) This Issue22 January 2006Volume 60Issue 1 Article InformationDOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rsnr.2005.0134Published by:Royal SocietyPrint ISSN:0035-9149Online ISSN:1743-0178History: Published online18/01/2006Published in print22/01/2006 License:© 2006 The Royal Society Citations and impact