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BIBTEX RIS

Forecasting the impacts of climate variability: lessons from the rainfed corn market in Ceará, Brazil

2008; Cambridge University Press; Volume: 13; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1017/s1355770x07004172

ISSN

1469-4395

Autores

Ariaster B. Chimeli, Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho, Marcos Costa Holanda, Francis Carlo Petterini,

Tópico(s)

Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets

Resumo

ABSTRACT A number of studies show that climatic shocks have significant economic impacts in several regions of the world, especially in, but not limited to, developing economies. In this paper we focus on a drought-related indicator of well-being and emergency spending in the Brazilian semi-arid zone – rainfed corn market – and estimate aggregate behavioral and forecast models for this market conditional on local climate determinants. We find encouraging evidence that our approach can help policy makers buy time to help them prepare for drought mitigating actions. The analysis is applicable to economies elsewhere in the world and climatic impacts other than those caused by droughts.

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