Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research
2013; Springer Science+Business Media; Volume: 122; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1007/s10584-013-0931-0
ISSN1573-1480
AutoresBas van Ruijven, Marc A. Levy, Arun Agrawal, Frank Biermann, Joern Birkmann, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Matthias Garschagen, Bryan Jones, Roger Jones, Eric Kemp‐Benedict, Marcel Kok, Kasper Kok, Maria Carmen Lemos, Paul Lucas, Ben Orlove, Shonali Pachauri, Tom M. Parris, Anand Patwardhan, Arthur C. Petersen, Benjamin L. Preston, Jesse Ribot, Dale S. Rothman, Vanessa Schweizer,
Tópico(s)demographic modeling and climate adaptation
ResumoThis paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.
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