Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Distinguishing and Combining Risks for Sexual and Violent Recidivism

2003; Wiley; Volume: 989; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1749-6632.2003.tb07308.x

1749-6632

David Thornton, Ruth E. Mann, Steve Webster, Linda Blud, Rosie Travers, Caroline Friendship, Matt Erikson,

Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis

A bstract : A two‐dimensional risk assessment system for sexual offenders was created that can classify them for risk of sexual recidivism, risk of nonsexual violent recidivism, and the composite risk of reconviction for sexual or nonsexual assaults. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of separate follow‐up samples were used for cross‐validation. The system is easier to score than Static‐99, and substantially easier to score than the VRAG or SORAG, while yielding comparable predictive accuracy in cross‐validation samples with follow‐ups from 2 years to 19 years. ROC AUC coefficients between .74 and .81 were found for the different scales and samples.