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Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households

2015; National Academy of Sciences; Volume: 112; Issue: 29 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1073/pnas.1423339112

1091-6490

Max S. Y. Lau, Benjamin J. Cowling, Alex R. Cook, Steven Riley,

Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology

Significance Traditionally, the efficacy of household-based nonpharmaceutical interventions against influenza is measured by the household secondary attack rate based on observed individual epidemiological data. We present an alternative measure of intervention efficacy that accounts for unobserved transmission using Bayesian techniques. We apply our methods to data from a study of household interventions (face masks and improved hand hygiene) in Hong Kong. This paper describes advances in our understanding of an important disease system and also our statistical ability to synthesize modern data streams.