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Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission

2015; Oxford University Press; Volume: 213; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1093/infdis/jiv470

1537-6613

Henrik Salje, Simon Cauchemez, Maria Theresa Alera, Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer, Butsaya Thaisomboonsuk, Anon Srikiatkhachorn, Catherine B. Lago, Daisy Villa, Chonticha Klungthong, Ilya A. Tac-An, Stefan Fernandez, John Mark Velasco, Vito G. Roque, Ananda Nisalak, Louis Macareo, Jens Levy, Derek A. T. Cummings, In-Kyu Yoon,

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Proper understanding of the long-term epidemiology of chikungunya has been hampered by poor surveillance. Outbreak years are unpredictable and cases often misdiagnosed. Here we analyzed age-specific data from 2 serological studies (from 1973 and 2012) in Cebu, Philippines, to reconstruct both the annual probability of infection and population-level immunity over a 60-year period (1952–2012). We also explored whether seroconversions during 2012–2013 were spatially clustered. Our models identified 4 discrete outbreaks separated by an average delay of 17 years. On average, 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16%–37%) of the susceptible population was infected per outbreak, with >50% of the entire population remaining susceptible at any point. Participants who seroconverted during 2012–2013 were clustered at distances of 350 000 infections were missed by surveillance systems. Serological studies could supplement surveillance to provide important insights on pathogen circulation.