Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Artigo Produção Nacional Revisado por pares

BIBTEX RIS

Long term electricity consumption forecast in Brazil: A fuzzy logic approach

2016; Elsevier BV; Volume: 54; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.seps.2015.12.002

1873-6041

Fabiano Castro Torrini, Reinaldo Castro Souza, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira, José Francisco Moreira Pessanha,

Multi-Criteria Decision Making

The energy companies are always facing the challenge of producing more accurate load forecasts. A fuzzy logic methodology is proposed in order to extract rules from the input variables and provide Brazil's long-term annual electricity demand forecasts. In recent literature, the formulation of these types of models has been limited to treating the explanatory variables in the univariate form, or involving only the GDP. This study proposes an extension of this model, starting with population and the GDP additional value. The proposed model is compared with the official projections. The obtained results are quite promising.