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Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century

2015; Cambridge University Press; Volume: 61; Issue: 228 Linguagem: Inglês

10.3189/2015jog15j017

1727-5652

Michael Zemp, Holger Frey, Isabelle Gärtner‐Roer, Samuel U. Nussbaumer, Martin Hoelzle, Frank Paul, Wilfried Haeberli, Florian Denzinger, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Brian Anderson, Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya, Carlo Baroni, Ludwig N Braun, Bolívar Cáceres, Gino Casassa, Guillermo Cobos, Luzmila Dávila, Hugo Delgado Granados, Michael N. Demuth, Lydia E. Espizúa, Andrea Fischer, Koji Fujita, Bogdan Gądek, Ali Ghazanfar, Jon Ove Hagen, Per Holmlund, Neamat Karimi, Zhongqin Li, Mauri Pelto, Pierre Pitte, Victor Popovnin, César Portocarrero, Rainer Prinz, Chandrashekhar V. Sangewar, Igor Severskiy, Oddur Sigurðsson, Álvaro Soruco, Ryskul Usubaliev, Christian Vincent,

Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics

Abstract Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (∼42 000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (∼5200 since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.