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Calculation of that environmental and geological landslide risk estimate

2016; Kharkiv State Academy of Physical Culture; Volume: 1; Issue: 10(79) Linguagem: Inglês

10.15587/1729-4061.2016.59687

1729-4061

Дмитро Васильович Касіянчук, Е. Kuzmenko, T. Chepurna, Ігор Валерійович Чепурний,

Environmental Sustainability and Technology

A new method of quantitative predictive risk assessment of exogenous geological processes (EGP), which is based on the studies of spaciotemporal prediction of their development is proposed. The algorithm is presented, which includes the main stages of calculation: determining the set of EGP for risk calculation; analyzing spaciotemporal development of EGP considering initiating factors; creating predictive spaciotemporal development models of EGP; selecting the spatial and analytical-descriptive hazard and risk assessment system; constructing predictive risk assessment maps according to the type of EPG; summarizing the estimates of spatial and protective systems, and building the integrated risk map for all types of EPG.The calculation of the given landslide risk is based on the calculation of average spaciotemporal landslide probability, partial and total landslide area for the analyzed period, the maximum area of damage, population density, the coefficient that takes into account the presence of protective systems in the area. Landslide risks for the year of maximum landslide activity are calculated. The cartogram of landslide risk estimates for administrative-territorial units (rural and city councils) on the example of the Ivano-Frankivsk region is built.