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The Impact of Climate Change on the Viticultural Suitability of Maipo Valley, Chile

2016; Routledge; Volume: 68; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00330124.2015.1124788

1467-9272

Megan Mills‐Novoa, Philippo Pszczólkowski, Francisco Meza,

Fermentation and Sensory Analysis

AbstractThis study uses the case of the Maipo Valley in Chile to examine how climate change will affect viticultural suitability. Using a geographic information system analysis of topographic, soil, land use, and climate data, a baseline assessment of viticultural suitability in the Maipo Valley was performed. The impact of climate change on viticultural suitability was modeled by overlaying downscaled global circulation model temperature data for two emission scenarios. The findings of this study suggest that the capacity of vineyard managers in the Maipo Valley to cultivate high-quality traditional grape varietals from cooler grape maturity classes might be limited in the future.本研究运用智利迈坡谷的案例, 检视气候变迁如何影响葡萄栽植的可持续性。本研究运用地形、土壤、土地使用与气候数据的地理信息系统分析, 进行迈坡谷葡萄栽培可持续性的基线评估。本研究透过在两个温室气体排放方案中覆盖降尺度全球大气环流模型的气温数据, 模式化气候变迁对于葡萄栽植可持续性的影响。研究结果发现, 迈坡谷的葡萄园经理人, 从较冷的葡萄熟成品种中培育出高质量的传统葡萄品种之能力, 在未来或许将会有所限缩。En este estudio se utiliza el caso del Valle de Maipo, en Chile, para examinar cómo afectará el cambio climático la aptitud de viticultura. Usando un análisis de datos de topografía, suelos, uso de la tierra y climas, por medio de sistemas de información geográfica, se efectuó una evaluación estándar de la aptitud viticultural del Valle de Maipo. El impacto del cambio climático sobre esa aptitud fue modelado revistiendo datos de temperatura a escala reducida del modelo de circulación global para dos escenarios de emisión. Los descubrimientos de este estudio sugieren que en el futuro la capacidad de los administradores de los viñedos del Valle de Maipo para producir varietales de uva de la alta calidad tradicional a partir de clases de maduración más fresca podría ser limitada.Key Words: central Chileclimate changeGISviticultural suitabilitywine关键词: 智利中部, 气候变迁, 地理信息系统, 葡萄栽植的可持续性, 葡萄酒。Palabras clave: Chile central, cambio climático, SIG, aptitud viticultural, vino AcknowledgmentsThe authors appreciate the contribution of David Poblete and Eduardo Bustos from the Centro de Cambio Global for their help with the downscaling process and troubleshooting, as well as Anna and Zack Steel for assistance with programming and cartography, respectively. Thanks also go to the Fulbright Commission-Chile for their support of this work. Finally, the authors would like to thank the UA SGD's Writing Workshop peer group for their guidance and support.FundingThis work was partially supported by Fondecyt Grant 1120713 during the analysis stage and by the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI, project CRN3056, which is supported by U.S. National Science Foundation grant GEO-1128040).Additional informationNotes on contributorsMegan Mills-NovoaMEGAN MILLS-NOVOA is a graduate student in the School of Geography and Development at the University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. E-mail: mmillsnovoa@email.arizona.edu. Her research interests include Andean agricultural systems, climate change adaptation, and mixed-method approaches.Philippo PszczólkowskiPHILIPPO PSZCZÓLKOWSKI is a Professor of enology in the Facultad de Agronomia e Ingeniería Forestal at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, 7820436, Chile. E-mail: philippo@uc.cl. His research interests include Chilean viticulture and enology.Francisco MezaFRANCISCO MEZA is a Professor in the Departamento de Ecosistemas y Medio Ambiente in the Facultad de Agronomia e Ingeniería Forestal and the Director of the Centro de Cambio Global at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, 7820436, Chile. E-mail: fmeza@uc.cl. His research interests include impacts of global change on agriculture, forest and water resources and the development of adaptation strategies for these sectors.