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Climate change and disease dynamics - A big data perspective

2016; Elsevier BV; Volume: 45; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.ijid.2016.02.084

1878-3511

Daphne Lopez, G. Sekaran,

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Background: The objective of this research is to predict disease scenarios based on environmental conditions change and climatic variability by combining regional climate models with mathematical models for disease transmission. Malaria and dengue fever are the most important vector borne diseases in the tropical and sub-tropicalcountries. Integration of large repositories of geospatial and health data derived from traditional stream as vital statistics, surveillance and hospitalization, and non-traditional sources including social media networks provide valuable insights into the spatio-temporal determinants of health and wellbeing. Methods & Materials: Data on infectious affected by vector borne diseases (Malaria) are collected from various private and public health centres, for the period starting January 1998 to December 2013 in Tamil Nadu, India. Daily weather data is collected from Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai (Figure 1). The suggested approach is implemented as a Big Data system using lambda architecture and MapReduce data processing model (Figure 2). Pearson correlation coefficient is computed in the proposed framework to find the climatic factors that greatly influence the transmission of the vector borne diseases. Results: This paper proposes a new architecture for modeling the climate change and vector borne diseases in real-time. A variety of big data analytical algorithms and data visualization approaches were used in the proposed big data based disease surveillance system to present the geographic regions at risk during this century. We found that maximum temperature is positively correlated while incidences of malaria and minimum temperature, wind, rainfall, humidity are negatively correlated with malaria incidence (Figure 3). Conclusion: The proposed early warning system is developed for continuous monitoring of information related to climatic change and public health as they unfold. These systems are in most instances, timely surveillance systems that collect information on epidemic prone diseases in order to trigger prompt public health interventions. Developing countries like India needs effective surveillance system and equity in health delivery programs for taking corrective actions to improve health conditions of vulnerable populations.